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The Problem with Electric Vehicles

jacquesmattheij.com

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Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#51

Post by ZeroGravitas »

_ph_ wrote: post #25

I have to disagree with many points in that article. My point of reference is the German grid, so it might be different in the US. - switching all cars to electrical would increase the total electricity consumption by 20%, while currently we export about 10% of our production. All the changes are going to happen over a timeframe of more than 20 years, because that is how long it takes to replace the cars at minimum,…

The concept of getting paid to allow grid controlled charging of your vehicle is available today:

http://www.emotorwerks.com/index.php/juicebox#rebates

For areas without the rebates in place they can track the carbon content of your local grid and charge only when wind turbines are producing strongly.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#52

Post by fweespee_ch »

I think the OP is overselling the following problems and/or failing to understand the problem EVs are relevant to:

1) Grid strain - By the time EV cars are popular enough for this to be an issue, installed home solar capacity is likely to be large enough that it is likely to look more like this:

   2 kW worth of solar panels
   1 Battery Pack (possibly interchangeable with the car)
   Battery pack is drained when you get home and charge the car.
   This will cost you ~$15,000 which is cheaper than the car and will last ~20 years (minus the battery pack which you'll need to replace every 5-10 years). This might go as low as $7.5k depending on technology improvements, incentives, sunny days, etc.
   On cloudy days, it'll just charge from the grid over 6-8 hours while people are at work.
   You'll want a system like this with 1+ EVs simply because you'll be using enough power it'll start making financial sense in most of the US.
2) EVs are primarily commuter cars so as long as their battery back lasts long enough to return home, it'll work. The rare instances where you'll need to recharge at a station will largely be irrelevant for day-to-day activity. Cars used for long distances ( 180+ miles ) regularly will likely remain hybrids or fossil fuel for decade(s).

4) Sharing will largely also be a non-issue since even when utilization goes up, we are talking ~3 hours of drive time to ~1 hour of charge time. You'd need to have greater than 50% utilization before charge time is likely to create issues. Similarly, as tech improves, that ratio will improve.

6) This is largely solved by the fact EVs are primarily going to be local commuter cars. Replacing commuter cars, in and of itself, is a worthy goal as it improves city air quality substantially which is linked to problems like asthma and cancer. I honestly don't care if long distance trucks which largely are spending their time in rural areas remain fossil fueled. I care about city air quality.

http://www.cancer.org/cancer/news/world-health-organization-... http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/... http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/air-pollution-s-im... http://discovermagazine.com/2013/julyaug/19-californias-air-...

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#53

Post by wimagguc »

This is actually a list of 9 pretty solid research ideas: the current re-charging stations are too small? Find out how to make them bigger. Can't toe with an electric vehicle? Invent one that can do just that.

Seems like the first reaction of most people here is to debate that problems exist in the first place.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#54

Post by jklinger410 »

ebbv wrote: post #37

This is a bunch of fallacies that have been brought up again and again and have been addressed. The biggest canard is "If everybody switched to EVs tomorrow our power grid couldn't handle!" Yes and if everyone went outside right now and pooped in the street we'd all drown in shit. Neither scenario is actually going to happen. The reality is that EVs are far, far more efficient than ICE vehicles. Not only that, they d…

>This is a bunch of fallacies that have been brought up again and again and have been addressed.

Nailed it.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#55

Post by jacquesm »

jwalton wrote: post #28

1 isn't a problem; it's awesome. Most people are going to plug in their cars at about 5:30-7, but most people don't actually care when, overnight, their car charges, so some smart software can stage charging, and we can use this to smooth out the peaks and valleys in demand. The electric company here in Ontario already tries to do this by charging less for electricity off-peak. 2 is a problem, but not an insurmountab…

> is a non-issue for many people. I drive 15km to work every day, and then 15km home. I'd be happy with a car with a 100 mile range, to be honest.

You should cycle if that's an option where you live. That's not a distance that I would consider taking the car for, but then again, nl has excellent bicycle infrastructure.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#56

Post by RodericDay »

I want public transport and walkable cities to win over electric cars. A lot of people take the need for cars for granted, and gush over the electric car future as optimum. This means that their transport utopia is something where you have these wide streets, click a button in your phone, and an Uber-Tesla picks you up and drops you off anywhere.

For me, this is the "faster-horse" of transportation.

I want more radical changes towards walkable cities with more space for people and less space for vehicles. Roads take up an insane amount of space, and self-driving electric cars don't make things much better.

The car should be more like a family appliance used in weekends for holiday trips.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#57

Post by anexprogrammer »

phineastcat wrote: post #17
anexprogrammer wrote: post #3

Hmm. All problems that could have been set at the door of internal combustion when it was new. They'll be solved as EVs make up a larger percentage of what's on the road. Are EVs the endgame? I suspect not. Apart from anything else I think it's going to prove far, far harder to replace trucks than buses and cars with EVs. Would we be better investing in public transport that's convenient and reliable enough people wa…

ICE cars will go first. Most personal cars are only driven a small mileage per day and don't need to carry much weight. Needing to go more than 350 miles in a day, or needing to tow a trailer are statistical outliers to most users. Anyone who occasionally needs to go really far or carry more weight will find another solution. As you said, I doubt ICE cars will go away completely. There's too much hobby/enthusiasm beh…

Quite so. The Honda Accord, or Ford Focus family car that takes the kids to school, a 30 mile daily commute and a few trips to the shops is the low hanging fruit. They're easy to replace.

If you need something to haul a big caravan for holiday, or trailer for a move. Just rent - the rental shops will expand to fit nicely. Probably a nice big diesel.

The v8 offroader that actually works offroad, the truck, and shipping are on diesel for the forseeable.

I don't even see the space requirements to cater for EVs charging needs as much of an issue. We already have service areas on motorways in Europe. Huge spaces with a petrol station in the far corner. We'll have to adjust to 500 mile journeys including a couple of rest/coffee breaks. If you have young kids they already do. Only difference is plug the car in before going inside.

We might have to resurrect a few diners (with charging) along the way on rural or non motorway roads. I think I like that.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#58

Post by rajahafify »

The arguments pointed out is rather week. Most can be solved given time and effort. With regards with the environment concerns, I think it's easier to solve the dependency of fosil fuel when all consumers is located in power stations compared to in individual transport unit.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#59

Post by VLM »

Misses numerous the historical examples and present day analogies.

Prob 1 is solved by the death of 9-5 full time work. Its just not relevant to most of the population anymore. The problems of deploying EVs in Levvitown in 1949 are not relevant to 2016+. Also "smart" grid connected battery chargers are more advanced than the typical 1949 "battery rectifier".

Prob 2 insists that what he calls fast charging would in the industry be called medium-slow charging. Also it strawdogs that a significant fraction of people will every require it and be willing to pay the likely "just under the cost of a SUV's tank of gas" they'll charge as a convenience fee. Finally he misses how rest stops along interstates actually work in recreational states like where I live... its just not a practical issue.

Prob 4 overestimates the popularity of sharing. Its kind of like wife sharing, many talk and think about it, only a tiny fraction do it, but its not unusually popular, nor growing, and not a significant population issue. Among certain extremely small subcultures its popular, but much like rurals who commute over 100 miles per trip, they're just going to be ignored and frozen out of the EV market. They can buy hybrids and the remaining 95% of the market will buy EVs. For a gas analogy, the fact that my micro-sub-compact can't tow a 37 foot sailboat turns out not to have eliminated its sales from the market, no matter how important that ability is for owners of 37 foot sailboats, or at least those who aspire.

Prob 5 carefully ignores historical infrastructure growth examples, population shifts in the USA, suburban sprawl, and ignores the slow rate of ramping up EV production. Basically, we have decades of experience building new infrastructure faster than we can possibly build new EV assembly lines. NIMBY areas will suffer, nothing new there, but I couldn't care less about them, and a little suffering might improve their views a bit.

Prob 7 is the great towing conspiracy (google it) where existing gas mfgrs try to protect suv and truck sales by pretending that magically only trucks can tow in the USA. Its pretty crazy, my (gas) car is rated to tow 2000 pounds in Canada and of course 0 in the USA, because they have to protect truck / suv sales. It is true, if you need to tow in the USA you already must buy a truck to do it legally while insured. So not being able to tow with a commuter EV isn't a downgrade from commuter gas cars that already are legally rated as zero (in the USA). Further when I do need to tow, its usually 3 miles to home depot or 5 miles to the lake, not crossing the Rockies in a blizzard.

Prob 8 is absolutely comical, like an anti-hybrid troll from over a decade ago or an anti-import troll from when I was a kid. When that tired argument is the best they can roll out...

Overall its mostly problems that exist primarily in the mind of opponents where 99% of the population won't care no matter how many times the talking points are repeated, much like the tired saw that no EV range is acceptable other than (max_currently_available) + 50 miles for all available ranges from 10 miles (homemade lead acid conversions) on up.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#60

Post by makomk »

tsmarsh wrote: post #45

I have an electric car, a leaf. I also have solar power from Solar City. I live in sunny MA, where in the winter we average 15kWh generated to the summer we average 50kWh. My commute is 60 miles per day which is around 6-8kW depending in traffic and weather. Also, my local power is a mixture of nuclear and wind. So. Can we please stop rolling coal burning power plants into the electric car equation as if it is univer…

If you commute, I assume your car isn't at home during the daytime on weekdays and so can't actually use most of the energy you generate for charging. How much of the 6-8kW of charging you do actually comes from your solar panels, and how much comes from the grid and is simply subsidized by your power provider being forced to buy your power at retail prices?
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