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The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

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Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#161

Post by osweiller »

knodi123 wrote: post #156
osweiller wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up. SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- t…

> Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? Fact 1: there are a lot more super-expensive cars than super-cheap cars. Fact 2: The guy you replied to is talking about what a family spends on a car, not what they spend on a new car Fact 3: income inequality means there are a lot more poor families than wealthy families. income distribution in america is not a…

Fact 1 is utter nonsense. "Fact" doesn't mean "claim something because it sounds good for your argument". Do you see more Ferraris than Honda Civics in your neck of the woods? More Porsches than Kia Fortes?

Regarding "Fact 2", I have no idea what they're even arguing. Their core point was absurd, and they really truly seem to think it's the rich who are buying $35K cars (not "normal", despite being utterly normal for new cars), which is laughable nonsense.

This is all just a diversion. The Tesla 3 is absolutely in the center of the average new car, that normal people buy. Tesla makes, unsurprisingly, vehicles for the new car market. Tens of millions of completely normal Americans buy new cars yearly.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#162

Post by heartbreak »

osweiller wrote: post #161
knodi123 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? Fact 1: there are a lot more super-expensive cars than super-cheap cars. Fact 2: The guy you replied to is talking about what a family spends on a car, not what they spend on a new car Fact 3: income inequality means there are a lot more poor families than wealthy families. income distribution in america is not a…

Fact 1 is utter nonsense. "Fact" doesn't mean "claim something because it sounds good for your argument". Do you see more Ferraris than Honda Civics in your neck of the woods? More Porsches than Kia Fortes? Regarding "Fact 2", I have no idea what they're even arguing. Their core point was absurd , and they really truly seem to think it's the rich who are buying $35K cars (not "normal", despite being utterly normal fo…

Their core point is not absurd. Where I come from, rich people are the only ones buying new cars at all. Forget $35,000 new cars. Everyone else buys used cars - hopefully one that won't die next month.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#163

Post by dionidium »

osweiller wrote: post #157
dionidium wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since you're the second person in this thread to think my post had anything at all to do with the definition of "mass-produced," I guess I should apologize for being unclear. That wasn't my point at all. Obviously it will be "mass-produced" for any reasonable definition of the phrase. My point was that this is still a luxury vehicle that will be purchased by people whose wallets will be able to handle production prob…

From your original post. The statement that everyone apparently isn't understanding right- One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. You are moving the goal posts around to somehow derive a win through some simply wrong statements. That's hardly uncommon,…

I'd like to make a meta-point here, not to osweiller (who thinks I'm making garbage, absurd, incomprehensible, bad-faith arguments, anyway), but just in general. There's this weird thing people do sometimes where you make a point, they respond to a different point, and then you explain that that wasn't your point at all and attempt to clarify what your point actually was.

And then this is where it gets weird: they then tell you, nope, you're wrong, your point was whatever they first interpreted it to be, no matter that you just clarified that that wasn't your point and tried to clear up the confusion.

Please don't do this. It's a really uncharitable and unnecessary way to conduct a discussion. I just told you what I intended my point to be. What do you gain by claiming that I'm hiding some other actual point? What would I gain by hiding some other point? In this particular case, I didn't even put any blame on the reader. I blamed myself and apologized for being unclear. If that's goal-post moving, then what hope do any of us have?

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#164

Post by tamal »

mikeash wrote: post #137
_fizz_buzz_ wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. This amazes me so much. I cannot believe that companies like Volkswagen basically ignore the EV market (except some half-assed E-Golf or something). I mean even if it really turns out to be fad - which I don't believe - don't they want to hedge their bets a little bit? Has nobody there ever heard of companies like Nokia, Blackberry, etc.?

Toyota is the one that really baffles me. I can sorta understand car companies ignoring electric and just continuing to plod along with fossil fuels. I don't think it's wise, but it's what they know. But Toyota seems to be ignoring electric and instead focusing on hydrogen , which just makes no sense whatsoever. It's like they read a collection of EV myths (there's nowhere to charge, you can't take road trips, it's w…

Meanwhile Toyota partners with Tesla to produce the minimum required number of zero-emissions vehicles in California: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV#Second_generati...

All the while denying that it's a good idea. Baffling.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#165

Post by knodi123 »

osweiller wrote: post #161
knodi123 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? Fact 1: there are a lot more super-expensive cars than super-cheap cars. Fact 2: The guy you replied to is talking about what a family spends on a car, not what they spend on a new car Fact 3: income inequality means there are a lot more poor families than wealthy families. income distribution in america is not a…

Fact 1 is utter nonsense. "Fact" doesn't mean "claim something because it sounds good for your argument". Do you see more Ferraris than Honda Civics in your neck of the woods? More Porsches than Kia Fortes? Regarding "Fact 2", I have no idea what they're even arguing. Their core point was absurd , and they really truly seem to think it's the rich who are buying $35K cars (not "normal", despite being utterly normal fo…

> Fact 1 is utter nonsense. "Fact" doesn't mean "claim something because it sounds good for your argument".

Rebutting an argument by claiming it is not based on any evidence? While providing absolutely no evidence of your own? Okay, cool.

> Regarding "Fact 2", I have no idea what they're even arguing

Their core point was if you're discussing people who buy new cars, you're already skewing away from the poorer demographics. People spend less on average to buy a car, than they do to buy a new car.

> The Tesla 3 is absolutely in the center of the average new car, that normal people buy

The tesla 3 is a little above the average price that people pay for a new car, among the fraction of people who buy new cars. Which most people don't do.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#166

Post by kelseyfrancis »

illumin8 wrote: post #125
kelseyfrancis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it seems pretty common to spend $35k on a vehicle, and of course people buying $35k sedans are in the Model 3 market, but I don't think that includes even new small economy car buyers. It would be difficult to spend $30k on a new standard-engine Mazda 3. Mine was $18k brand new. The top standard-engine trim is around $25k. That other $10-17k is another $165-285/month over 5 years at 0% interest, and that is not…

You're comparing a Mazda 3, which is an economy car, against an entry-level luxury sedan. This is a bad comparison. Mazda doesn't even have a car in this segment. You should be comparing it against a BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Acura TL, Mercedes C-series, Lexus GS. All of those vehicles start in the 30s, and you would be lucky to get out the door with reasonable options under $50K. You could probably get the BMW up to al…

> You're comparing a Mazda 3, which is an economy car, against an entry-level luxury sedan. This is a bad comparison.

Indeed, that was my point. The claim that "'economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options" is trying to assert that people buying those kinds of cars are in the Model 3 market. But they really aren't. People buying small luxury sedans like the ones you've mentioned probably are, though.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#167

Post by osweiller »

heartbreak wrote: post #162
osweiller wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fact 1 is utter nonsense. "Fact" doesn't mean "claim something because it sounds good for your argument". Do you see more Ferraris than Honda Civics in your neck of the woods? More Porsches than Kia Fortes? Regarding "Fact 2", I have no idea what they're even arguing. Their core point was absurd , and they really truly seem to think it's the rich who are buying $35K cars (not "normal", despite being utterly normal fo…

Their core point is not absurd. Where I come from, rich people are the only ones buying new cars at all. Forget $35,000 new cars. Everyone else buys used cars - hopefully one that won't die next month.

The average new car buyer keeps it for six years. 17 million new cars are sold in the US per year. So 102 million Americans (which of course grossly underestimates as most are bought by couples/families) are buying new cars in that lifespan. Of those people, the average price is $32,000 or so.

Again, the data tells us that an enormous number of completely normal, ordinary Americans buy new cars regularly, and that they spend a lot. Anecdotes or personal projections can give us a completely skewed notion about this (e.g. I know zero people who own a gun. Therefore no one owns guns), but if you compare the data to your anecdote, clearly they don't correspond.

And FWIW (which is little), every one of my neighbors has vehicles worth well over the average. In the exurb town I live in on the outskirts of major city, you never, ever see an older car, or a junker, or anything of the sorts. Burger flippers have shiny new Kias. The middle class have giant SUVs. And so on.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#168

Post by mikeash »

tamal wrote: post #164
mikeash wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota is the one that really baffles me. I can sorta understand car companies ignoring electric and just continuing to plod along with fossil fuels. I don't think it's wise, but it's what they know. But Toyota seems to be ignoring electric and instead focusing on hydrogen , which just makes no sense whatsoever. It's like they read a collection of EV myths (there's nowhere to charge, you can't take road trips, it's w…

Meanwhile Toyota partners with Tesla to produce the minimum required number of zero-emissions vehicles in California: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV#Second_generati... All the while denying that it's a good idea. Baffling.

I'm not sure I see your point. Of course Toyota is going to build EVs if they're required to by law. It's not like they're going to give up the entire California market just because they don't believe in EVs.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#169

Post by knodi123 »

osweiller wrote: post #167
heartbreak wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their core point is not absurd. Where I come from, rich people are the only ones buying new cars at all. Forget $35,000 new cars. Everyone else buys used cars - hopefully one that won't die next month.

The average new car buyer keeps it for six years. 17 million new cars are sold in the US per year. So 102 million Americans (which of course grossly underestimates as most are bought by couples/families) are buying new cars in that lifespan. Of those people, the average price is $32,000 or so. Again, the data tells us that an enormous number of completely normal, ordinary Americans buy new cars regularly, and that th…

Let's not lose track of what started the conversation. It was somebody saying "the median family spends nowhere near that on a car".

That's what we're discussing. That the amount people pay for a car, is less than what people pay for a new car. That's the only point I leapt in to defend, and if you're arguing with me against other points, then you're talking to the wrong guy.

Look- the average number of arms for a tennis player is less than 2. Similarly, some (perhaps most) people spend their car-acquiring dollars on used cars. So, the average amount people spend on a car is less than the average sale price of a new car. QED, end of discussion.

Now, you want to argue that among people who buy a new car, $35k is acceptably average? Okay, fine, whatever, I don't care, and neither does anybody else in this thread.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#170

Post by gcb0 »

Reason077 wrote: post #79
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect. BYD already produces electric cars that…

the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them Really? I can't imagine anyone who's actually driven a Tesla wanting to go back to an ICE vehicle. People aren't buying Teslas because they're greener or cheaper to operate or even because of government incentives (although those are additional, feel-good benefits). They're buying them because they…

easy on the koolaid there kid.

and btw, bmw already sell a EV for under 35k for over a year.

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