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Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

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Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#71
post #26
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "good argument" for having a minimum wage is that without it, wages will be pressured down , because every business on the planet wants wages as low as possible, and they generally have the means to achieve this. It has nothing to do with job creation: it's about having jobs that are not basically slavery. It's for job quality, not quantity. Besides, you're just assuming people should be employed at "fair market…

You're using an inadequate notion of what a "good argument" is in this context. You have not made an argument for why a price floor is necessary or desirable. I could just as easily say, "The good argument for having a maximum 'price of bread' is that without it, bread prices will be pressured up, because every bakery on the planet wants prices as high as possible, and they generally have the means to achieve it." Yo…

> I could just as easily say, "The good argument for having a maximum 'price of bread' is that without it, bread prices will be pressured up, because every bakery on the planet wants prices as high as possible, and they generally have the means to achieve it."

You could certainly just as easily say that, but there's an obvious reason why it isn't true: so long as there are multiple suppliers and it's possible to produce bread in quantities sufficient to more than supply the population, each supplier can benefit from undercutting the prices offered by the others and capturing a larger share of the market, and this drives down prices to relatively near the cost of production. (As for the case when it's not possible to produce enough bread, take a look at the history of rationing during wartime and why it existed.) This argument simply doesn't apply to the comment you're replying to.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does this contradict the parent comment? Minimum wage obviously doesn't affect Google engineers, it affects the unskilled labor with near-limitless supply that you have mentioned. The idea is to prevent that kind of labor from becoming basically slavery.

Slavery is forced labor. I don't see anything forced here. Salaries for unskilled labor are driven down by lack of demand for unskilled labor, and nothing can be done about that. What can be done is adjusting employees' skills to the areas where demand is still high. Coding bootcamps are one obvious possibility, but there are others. Everyone can learn new things. You, personally, can help these people, too. Hire an…

If you have to accept a pitiful wage in order to barely subsist, that is effectively forced labor. In practice, the only alternative is to starve. Which is why a labor market without basic income or some other kind of safety net is not a free market at all.

Not everyone can learn everything, but even if that were possible, if everyone in the world knew e.g. how to code decently, coding would be a minimum-wage job too. There is just not enough demand for jobs to make everyone valuable, and automation is just making this more pronounced.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#73
post #62

I think what you're going to see with any minimum wage hike is that businesses who have thin margins, namely restaurants and small stores, will be forced to go out of business or be forced to degrade their quality of service. Labor costs are for any business the biggest line-item expense. Spending on "robo waiters" or what have you is a big upfront capital expenditure, and I doubt many restaurants will be able to fin…

> this would only net them an extra $450/mo. at most, which doesn't seem like it would be enough to have a big impact on somebody's life. It absolutely would have a big impact. You are talking food for a money, a monthly bus pass and cell phone cost.

Yeah admittedly that judgement largely depends on where you live and the cost base. In my opinion, that wouldn't buy you much in SF or NY. For somebody located outside of a city, it could have a much bigger impact.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#74
post #3

Here is the critical section of the article: > What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored. > Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts. No, the workers are now fired. They don't get a raise. > The advanced robo-res…

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

>yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run

If by serious pain, you mean profit margins take a serious dent, then yes, there will be pain.

There's a LOT more whinging and stamping of feet by profit-focused lobby groups...

http://conservativetribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/bi...

...than actual lost jobs, however:

http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-seattle-s-m...

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#75
post #56

I'm all for raising the minimum wage, temporarily it may help people for several years. The truth is the automation wave is coming quickly regardless of what people are paid. And it's not for just minimum wage jobs. Think about jobs like truck driver where there's probably several million people who count this as their profession in the US. In 10-20 years, that number will probably approach 0. There's a nasty new wor…

>There's a nasty new world order coming where a vast majority of jobs will be gone.

If anything is going to cause this dystopian future to happen it'll be trade deals like TTIP and TPP not magical androids.

>Even if you have a job that is 'automation-proof' or 'automation-resistent' but not an elite, your income will be paltry compared to the super rich class

Americans have fought (and won) against robber barons before and they will do again. This kind of shift in wealth is a cyclical thing that happens with or without jetsons-style robot maids.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

> The human biology and mind is clearly limited, while the progress of machines does not seem to be. Can you explain what you mean by that? That's not an intuitive idea to me, animals/AIs just seem like two different kinds of machines to me with different computational characteristics, neither of which can fully simulate the other.

Not op, but i will try. There's no distinction of biological computation and machine computation, there's just computation. What our brain is doing is computation, we may not fully understand how it does what it does yet, but what we know is that our brain is a very powerful computational machine, that's why it is so hard to emulate its processes. But as man-made machines are still getting more powerful, it will someday be able to do everything our brains do (from playing chess, go, understanding images, walking, driving to understanding language, creating a self-model a reality model and having self awareness).

But as man-made machines are not constrained to a skull and body, and other physical limitations, it will eventually surpass our processing power. There will be some limit for it though, just nowhere close to our wetware.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#77
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"As a business, you are not entitled to a profit. Especially not at the expense of your employees welfare." That's funny, but true. You know what else is at least as true? No people are entitled to employment, especially at a loss to the business.

You think people are not entitled to employment? Are they entitled to survive? Are you going to be the one to break the bad news? Let's find out what happens when you tell large segments of the population they have no right to a livelihood. I am going to wager the cost to the wealthy will be much higher than an increase in the minimum wage.

I assume everyone who argues that there's no right to employment is also arguing in favor of a guaranteed income - decoupling survival from employment.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Slavery is forced labor. I don't see anything forced here. Salaries for unskilled labor are driven down by lack of demand for unskilled labor, and nothing can be done about that. What can be done is adjusting employees' skills to the areas where demand is still high. Coding bootcamps are one obvious possibility, but there are others. Everyone can learn new things. You, personally, can help these people, too. Hire an…

If you have to accept a pitiful wage in order to barely subsist, that is effectively forced labor. In practice, the only alternative is to starve. Which is why a labor market without basic income or some other kind of safety net is not a free market at all. Not everyone can learn everything, but even if that were possible, if everyone in the world knew e.g. how to code decently, coding would be a minimum-wage job too…

This is why world population growth is dramatically slowing down (not exponential, not even linear — it is now sublinear, and expected to stop completely around 2050).

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#79
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, every business on the planet wants wages as low as possible. This is, of course, correct. On the other hand, every employee on the planet wants her wage to be as high as possible. This is also obviously true. This creates law of supply and demand. Google can't hire a decent software engineer for, say, $30000/year, because other companies will immediately offer more, and supply of talented software engineers is…

The trouble with supply and demand is that people can't exactly stop eating for a few months if they can't find work that pays as much as they'd like, so as long as there are more people who need jobs to eat than there are jobs it can't do much to stop the downward pressure on wages - which in turn means that it's in business owners' interests to make sure this is true. (Why do you think there's really so much pressu…

You think that high minimum wage will somehow magically create more jobs? Could you please explain this entertaining possibility?

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#80
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

I read somewhere that the amount of people employed in the transportation industry is roughly equal to the tech industry. If 75% or more become redundant, where will they go? Certainly not the restaurant industry... One theory I have about all of the coding "boot camps" popping up is that they are preparing for an exodus of people from the next job sector to be automated/eliminated (auto-lated?).

If you look at the most popular job in each state, you will find truck driving is either #1 or pretty high on the list.
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