Model 3 Unveiling [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#381

Post by Animats » Fri, Apr 01, 2016, 7:52 PM UTC

Denzel wrote: post #367

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incredible. To me, everything about that guy screams snake oil salesman.

Does he appear a snake oil salesman in light of the facts you know now? Or you're saying you would have thought the same thing back in 2009? Do you have any specifics on why you feel that way? Genuinely curious, as a person who likes to analyze public speaking events.

When I heard him speak at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, I though "I'm listening to a con man". He was talking about expanding his company 10x every year for years to come. Few companies have done that successfully, especially in a bricks-and-mortar business, which building battery-swap stations is. And the whole battery leasing model sounded like a financial gimmick. I used to go to VC events where people pitched, so I've heard lots of pitches.

I also thought, he's betting against battery technology. If somebody comes up with a battery that gives enough range and a fast charging system (which is what happened; visit your Tesla dealer) his whole battery-swap scheme is obsolete.

I also thought, if this is so great, and you're operating in countries from Israel to Denmark, why aren't there more of your cars on the road yet?

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#382

Post by apapli » Fri, Apr 01, 2016, 8:06 PM UTC

illumin8 wrote: post #325

apapli wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually thought they seemed more bummed with the range. 210 miles is pretty vanilla, for a Tesla. It would have been nice to see it in the low 300s as a starting point. Not that this stopped me from putting down my deposit.

215 miles is the starting range, and its likely that they will have battery upgrades available that increase this.

I know. I was hoping they would have had the entry level range higher to really stretch consumer expectations when the established luxury brands start competing properly with Tesla in the next few years.

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#383

Post by fosco » Fri, Apr 01, 2016, 8:13 PM UTC

usaphp wrote: post #210

jd20 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all relative. I think many would consider a $35k BMW a "luxury" in comparison to a $15k Honda.

Ok, if they consider $35K BMW a luxury car, then how would they call a $90K Porshe? Or $300K Rolls-Royce?

I would call the Porsche a mid-size luxury car [0] and the rolls-royce a full-size luxury care [0] and the BMW maybe an entry-level luxury car.

I don't know if I agree with the naming conventions but it seems appropriate when coupled with the article on wiki [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_classification

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#384

Post by mikeash » Fri, Apr 01, 2016, 8:26 PM UTC

schwarrrtz wrote: post #380

mikeash wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was on TMC somewhere . I couldn't locate the original message about the test drive car, although there are some mentions of that message. I did dig this up: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/l-or-no-l.63631/page... That's a report of a P90D owner in the UAE who got theirs upgraded to Ludicrous using just a laptop and an underline for the badge on the car. According to that, early P90Ds weren't this way, but…

Hm. Interesting. I can see a couple of other possibilities: 1) The upgraded hardware was required to support the current draw in the regular P90D, and the decision to offer the Ludicrous upgrade was an economic one. 2) The upgraded hardware was required to support the current draw in the regular P90D, but given their battery and drivetrain warranty they limited the max current to avoid excessive wear on the parts. Th…

Those are both good possibilities. Another one that comes to mind is that the upgraded hardware isn't necessary and isn't particularly cheap, but isn't too expensive, and the ability to offer an easy post-purchase upgrade offsets it. For example, if the hardware costs $1,000 but 15% of P90D owners later upgrade their cars for $10,000, that's a win.

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#385

Post by mikeyouse » Fri, Apr 01, 2016, 9:16 PM UTC

ryanhuff wrote: post #363

mikeyouse wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average battery size for the Model S is probably 85kWh (they sell them from 70 - 90), and average residential power rates in the US are ~$0.15/kWh. So the easy answer is, a Model S will cost ~$12.75 to "fill up". However, some places have residential rates closer to $0.08/kWh, or $7/tank. That's for 300mi range. They do sell lower capacity battery versions and the entry level Model 3 will likely have a 50kWh batt…

Power rates vary widely in the US. In Southern California, I am above $0.30/kWh. I haven't done the math recently, but I don't think it's very cost competitive with today's gasoline prices for an ICE.

SCE has an EV-Charging plan where the overnight rate (Super Off Peak in their terminology) maxes out at $0.075/kWh:

https://www.sce.com/NR/sc3/tm2/pdf/CE324.pdf

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#386

Post by Denzel » Fri, Apr 01, 2016, 10:17 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #381

Denzel wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does he appear a snake oil salesman in light of the facts you know now? Or you're saying you would have thought the same thing back in 2009? Do you have any specifics on why you feel that way? Genuinely curious, as a person who likes to analyze public speaking events.

When I heard him speak at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, I though "I'm listening to a con man". He was talking about expanding his company 10x every year for years to come. Few companies have done that successfully, especially in a bricks-and-mortar business, which building battery-swap stations is. And the whole battery leasing model sounded like a financial gimmick. I used to go to VC events where people p…

I agree, if someone was claiming they could grow a business 10x/year, that sounds suspicious. However, I didn't hear him speak at the Commonwealth Club, so I can only go off his TED talk. He says the EV industry will grow 100x between 2011 and 2016.

In that talk, he sounds more reasonable to me. There's a lot of overlap between his ideas and Elon's and he's very upfront about what he is and is not trying to do. He states that he's not trying to change the battery industry (like Elon with the Gigafactory); he's treating the industry as an input. His whole e-Miles concept seems like a different take on making the TCO, of an electric car, more appealing to the mass-market. I'm not saying I agree, I haven't run the numbers, but it doesn't sound unreasonable. In fact, Elon hedged himself by touting a battery swapping station.

My feeling is based off his TED talk alone, and I'm just not understanding where the snake-oil salesman vibe is coming from. It's very pleasurable to watch him present. Of course, if I had seen what you did at the Commonwealth, then my impression would be different.

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#387

Post by mdorazio » Fri, Apr 01, 2016, 11:15 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #317

mdorazio wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. Planned 0-60 in under 7 seconds for the Bolt [1] with similar fast charging capability at suitable chargers. If we're going to split hairs over being a second faster off the line when it's already not even as fast as significantly cheaper cars, then I'm not sure what to say. The lack of a supercharger network is definitely a downside for Chevy, but for your average commuter that shouldn't be a major issue. Plea…

I think the lack of a supercharger network is going to be huge. Yes, for your average commuter it shouldn't be a major issue, but it will be just the same. How to take road trips is the number one question/concern people have when I show them my Model S. There are many arguments to make about how it shouldn't matter, because long road trips are rare, you can take a different car, or rent a car, etc. But people just d…

Fair point. However I don't think there's anything preventing Chevy from dropping the Bolt MSRP in late 2017 or 2018 to be more price competitive. By then it will have been out for more than a year.

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#388

Post by ssmoot » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 1:42 AM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #318

dabeeeenster wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the car has to have a HUD...surely...

I don't think it needs one. Speed is displayed on the driver's side of the center screen. There are lots of cars out there already with the instrument cluster in the center of the dashboard rather than behind the steering wheel, such as the Prius.

That's buried into the dash though. So... 35 degree viewing angle maybe? No way the floating near the cup holders tablet can be final. It's have to be like a 55 degree viewing angle? It would have the most distracting, just plain bad ergonomics of any car ever produced (that I can think of).

Think of glancing at your center-dash Nav. Now imagine it on a pedestal pushing it another 5 or 6 inches off the dash straight back. It'd be downright dangerous IMO.

But where are the cup holders? The pictures look like blanks. The a/c vents? The running gear controls? A gear selector? Surely that's not on the steering wheel or tablet?

I'd bet this is a reveal of a chassis and power train. Not the car's interior. I would expect major changes ahead.

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#389

Post by scurvy » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 3:03 AM UTC

tw04 wrote: post #361

scurvy wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a > $600 car payment every month assuming 60 months and 3% interest. That's out of reach of most American families.

I dunno, I see an AWFULLY lot of new pickups and SUVs on the road, and most of them are in that ballpark new if not way, way above.

Probably leases? They only offer leases on the Model S AFAICT.

Re: Model 3 Unveiling [video]

#390

Post by vsl » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 5:57 AM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #281

slg wrote: post #194

Some of the press pics and video from inside the car is really interesting. There is no instrument panel and the only screen is the center tablet. That would seem to be somewhat inconvenient to view things like speed. I wonder if that is hinting at a future with expanded autopilot were the driver can pay less attention to the instruments. [1] - https://twitter.com/autonews_west/status/715761107508584448 [2] - https:/…

Usually you'd drive on cruise control, I reckon. Wouldn't be surprised if Tesla has or adds a semi-auto cruise control that either matches speed with other traffic, or with the speed limits on that stretch of road already.

It has.