Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley • Hacker News Board

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#261

Post by turar » Mon, Mar 28, 2016, 5:30 PM UTC

narrator wrote: post #178

littletimmy wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then it is not land prices itself but rather the availability of the credit that seems to be the fundamental disparity, isn't it? And you could question why there's such a big difference in credit availability, which comes down to accumulated capital and to productivity/technology. Not to disparage your argument, but aren't you just saying more productive/advanced regions have more expensive stuff?

I think American financial institutions and their clients have a slight advantage when it comes to getting dollar credit than financial institutions in developing countries. That's why when American companies get cheap money it does so much more overseas.

Why do American banks and their clients get this advantage? Does it come down to the historical fact that the US Dollar is a currency with a unique worldwide status?

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#262

Post by ArkyBeagle » Mon, Mar 28, 2016, 5:33 PM UTC

DasIch wrote: post #102

ArkyBeagle wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to wonder what other price is paid for that state of affairs. Is that the result of some sort of ... rigged game?

Not at all. However Germany has a massive trade imbalance because it's exporting all these products. There are only so many countries this can work for. Recently-ish Germany is also aided by the fact that the rest of the eurozone isn't doing so well economically keeping the euro lower in value than a German currency would be.

So a sort of latter-day Mercantilism, then?

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#263

Post by rgbrenner » Mon, Mar 28, 2016, 5:51 PM UTC

ArkyBeagle wrote: post #258

rgbrenner wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"before around 1970" You know what happened shortly before 1970? The Great Chinese Famine--where up to 45 million people starved in the span of 3 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine I'm not sure how saying facts out loud indicates a value preference.

It was said on a time interval from a very long time before 1970 until around 1970. This was not a direct reaction to the Great Famine ( which wasn't widely discussed in the US ). If you're not familiar enough with American culture to know what I mean, then don't worry about it.

ok, that's interesting. China had a lot of famines though: 7 from 1900-1962: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines_in_China

So I wouldn't be quick to rule out the idea that the phrase started with a famine in China.

I am American btw. But I wasn't alive in 1970.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#264

Post by DasIch » Mon, Mar 28, 2016, 6:06 PM UTC

ArkyBeagle wrote: post #262

DasIch wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. However Germany has a massive trade imbalance because it's exporting all these products. There are only so many countries this can work for. Recently-ish Germany is also aided by the fact that the rest of the eurozone isn't doing so well economically keeping the euro lower in value than a German currency would be.

So a sort of latter-day Mercantilism, then?

Mercantilism features strong restrictions on trade and protectionism, which Germany doesn't have.

It's mostly that the government and even unions are comfortable doing things that help companies compete internationally, even if that means that wages might not rise as much for example.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#265

Post by srean » Thu, Mar 31, 2016, 4:32 AM UTC

botw wrote: post #227

graycat wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO: Deliver products/services can get paid for. For this, move to new areas with no competition, that is, move products/services forward. For this, use new, powerful, valuable technology. For that, broadly, supply new, valuable information . For that, take in available data, manipulate it, and report the new information as the results. So, with all this data, find where some new, valuable information will make a go…

are you majoring in applied math? can it replace ML and AI?

I don't understand your question. How is ML and AI not applied math ?

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#266

Post by srean » Thu, Mar 31, 2016, 4:43 AM UTC

graycat wrote: post #237

botw wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are you majoring in applied math? can it replace ML and AI?

IMHO, might look at ML as based heavily on the Leo Breiman work in random forests and classification and regression trees (CART). Breiman was a first class applied mathematician, a student of M. Loeve at Berkeley and later a professor, of, say, statistics, at Berkeley. So, one way to get valuable information is to take in some data, manipulate it, and report the results. IMHO, by far the best way to get powerful data…

I agree that ML and AI are applied math. It is a, duh, no-brainer.

But you might want to revise this:

> IMHO, might look at ML as based heavily on the Leo Breiman work in random forests and classification and regression trees (CART).

There is a whole lot more to ML than decision forests. We have talked about this before, I suggest that you get started with Vapnik's books. They are not light reading but I can promise you will enjoy them. No seriously, just get those books. In fact his main result is bigger than ML, its a non-asymptotic distribution independent _uniform_ law of large numbers.

ML is now in, what can be described as, a post-Vapnik era, but for someone steeped in probability and functional analysis that is the place to start.