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Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

nytimes.com

151–160 of 266 posts

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#151
post #140
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. I think this is a strong argument in favor of basic income. If the risk of an enterprise failing were separated from the risk of not being able to eat next week, then we would have far more entrepreneurs.

The paradox is that in many societies where something approximating basic income does exist, there is not a particularly great wealth of entrepreneurship. If anything I think there's a negative correlation.

The central consideration needs to be approximation. People like to compare US unemployment and welfare to UBI, or other social safety net programs, but in almost all these cases maintaining the income requires diligent screenings from state officials combined with proving a lack of income on your part. The temporary nature of all of them, and the cultural stigma of using them, also causes people to withdraw rather than participate in society. To be on welfare is to be wrong, and it is hard to operate from that mindset and be productive in your thoughts and endeavors.

We need to see if these Canadian or Finnish proposals show fruit. Because one of the fundamental tenants of basic income - unconditionality, perpetuity - is the keystone of seeing economic growth through its deployment. It is also the halmark of decrying existent forms of welfare in how they incentivize docility and non-participation.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And when they're done? What about the jobs!

The infrastructure in this country is in an absolutely dilapidated state. Roads are potholed, bridges are collapsing, water and sewage pipes date back to the Civil War, Internet connectivity is expensive and slow. There's more than enough work to keep a whole lot of people busy for a generation, if we're willing to pay for it.

If its true that such jobs would reduce unemployment substantially, then a number of potential workers might already be recipients of other government programs, meaning the marginal cost is not nearly as much as the salary.

Implementing such a program in that way though requires a fair amount of attention. If it ends up not reducing unemployment, that means it is diverting workers from other industries, which doesn't necessarily mean it is a bad program, but it's a different kind of thing.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#154
post #72
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a significant confluence among those who find prosperity and purpose through jobs to conflate the concepts of employment and purpose. That to not have a job is to not have a purpose, and vice versa. If we had a planned economy built around peak employment, we would have many fewer entrepreneurs and many more, as you say, hole diggers. Socially we already do that. We have created a gargantuan advertis…

Wow! Fantastic comment that I woefully can only upvote once. This is why I come to HN, for thinking like this. That said, I think you are totally wrong about this. Just look at surnames: Baker, Smith, Shoemaker, etc. The actual names of people and their families were completely centered around their employment, or more generally, what it was they did all day long. Yes, this was medieval Europe, and conditionals aboun…

Alright, comments.

The Bakers, Smiths, and Shoemakers were in their own sense entrepreneurs. They ran their own businesses, kept their trade within their families, and profited strictly through the fruits of their own labors rather than a capitalists willingness to give them crumbs of their efforts. Owning your own small business, or having a family owned business, is incredibly divergent from the status quo of employment to international megacorp where everyone you ever meet involved with the company is still just a low level cog in a larger machine.

The Bakers et al saw their prosperity often strictly through their skill and talent. We have normalized that significantly in modern society for better and worse, but the inventive Smith who could improve on his metalcasting skill through ingenuity would reap tremendous benefits in the kingdom. Trying to innovate in shelf stocking at Walmart will get you fired. The ability to dictate ones own destiny like that, even if constrained to the skills passed down from parents, is still providing absolutely useful work being done. The Bakers and Shoemakers existed because of real demand from not only the nobility but their neighbors for their work.

There were few or no unemployed in the era of Smith families formation - if you did not have practical utility to your community you were often discarded. You prayed on the good nature of your own children to keep you around in old age when you were decrepit and could no longer work. Before the Industrial Revolution, the marginal cost of maintaining an individual persons working conditions was enormously high, such that 80% of people at least were working as farmers for thousands of years.

My point is that today we face a crisis not of a lack of resources as those before us would have faced. Today the labor participation rate, which I much prefer to fictitious employment rates, is at a 20 year low and continuing to drop. It is today below the rates we saw when women were en masse entering the workforce in the 70s and 80s. It is dramatically higher for those younger rather than older, predominantly because rather than train and hire new recruits to do the old jobs we either obsolete them or automate them. It is also valuable to consider that even before the rise of working class women, women were serving critical functions in society as caregivers and child rearers, that we have done a lot to professionalize and integrate into that labor force as paid work, so even today the 1:3 people over the age of 16 that are not posting working income are much less likely to be doing work without pay.

If we had this rate of labor participation a thousand, or even two hundred, years ago we would have seen mass famine and social collapse because you needed way more than that ratio of people farming just to feed everyone. We obviously do not have that problem today. Hell, we cannot even fathom an unemployment rate where would actually reasonably see a shortage of anything. Our only concerns when dealing with unemployment is how we would have millions of destitute and homeless, not due to a lack of resources, but because they lack any money to buy them with.

On the standard of living in the US, we can practically see what is happening. I don't believe it is any adjustment for climate change. We still do not give a shit. It is simply globalization, and oligarchic state control. The US did what facists and communists did to a degree with capitalism. We treated it like religion throughout the cold war, and eroded liberty and individual empowerment to hold the ideology sacred. We killed unions and sat idle while global monopolies were formed under our stead, and while our politics enabled the gross transfer of wealth from the middle to the top, and from the middle to foreign markets where the act of producing goods traveled.

On the backs of the vast majority of American wealth falling, the rich have gotten dramatically richer, billions were lifted out of extreme poverty, and nations like Korea, China, Brazil, Mexico, and India have seen the rise of dramatic middle classes in very short spans of time from the wealth we send overseas.

That is economics driving the dissolution of median wealth, not the environment. As long as our economic policy systemically ignores negative externalities like human rights and greenhouse gasses (and it always has, we just did a better job long ago at managing them through collectivism, environmental protection, and workers rights in the era before gargantuan business interests took over most western democracies through amassed wealth ).

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#155
post #95
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the absolutely embarrassing state of our country, hole diggers are exactly what we need. Legitimately go pay someone to dig holes all day and lay single-mode fiber to every home. Pay them to turn a wrench replacing support brackets on a bridge. The Works program was the single most successful employer in this country's history and we replaced it with welfare because "unemployment is low and we don't need it any…

Today, the ditch digging s done with small excavators, not with hordes of guys with shovels...

You need to use shovels in quite a few scenarios, specifically when you're working around existing infrastructure

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#156
post #95
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the absolutely embarrassing state of our country, hole diggers are exactly what we need. Legitimately go pay someone to dig holes all day and lay single-mode fiber to every home. Pay them to turn a wrench replacing support brackets on a bridge. The Works program was the single most successful employer in this country's history and we replaced it with welfare because "unemployment is low and we don't need it any…

Today, the ditch digging s done with small excavators, not with hordes of guys with shovels...

You need to use shovels in quite a few scenarios, specifically when you're working around existing infrastructure

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#157

The mystery at the center of all this is "Why is it so astronomically cheap to do the x in Asia vs the U.S?". Not just cheap as in low wage, but cheap as in finished goods costing less than the cost of materials delivered to the American factory. It's not just manufacturing. In Thailand you can live in a high rise condo with a gym and maid service and eat out every day and do some traveling for $2000/month. That life…

Can you elaborate on your last paragraph please? What is the fundamental cause in your opinion? Or are you saying it's like turtles all the way down?

The last paragraph is just speculation as to what they might find based on some investment research I've done while traveling in various developing countries. My speculation is that land prices in America are vastly inflated because there is so much credit available to buy them while in developing countries there is very little credit available for borrowing against land.

In Argentina and most of Latin America for example, most real estate purchases are done with cash. Thus, in order to buy land you have to save for years till you have the full purchase price. The cost of renting is much higher vs the land value. Less credit = lower prices. Profits and savings from productive businesses and wages have much more power in the economy than bank loans.

It's a bit like what happened to higher education in the U.S. We rapidly increased the amount of loans available and the costs skyrocketed. Same goes for the housing bubble. You increase the credit available for houses, the price goes up. You decrease it, the price goes down. This is the game we play with money in this country because everyone will always take our dollars and we can QE as many as we want.

There's a lot of arbitrage of this via buying real estate in foreign countries. Lots of retirees sell their inflated home and buy in Costa Rica and all that money drives up the prices there. We've got the dollar spigot in this country and everyone else in the world has to drink off what leaks out the trade deficit.

It's a global game and the people who have made tons of money off that game go and manufacture stuff in China for impossibly cheap where the leaky dollar spigot has not deluged and import it back to the U.S. This is where the whole export led economy thing comes from. If you are a publicly traded company in the U.S, you get to benefit from the enormous amounts of dollar spigot that floods into the S&P 500 via the banks diversifying after they receiving money from the Fed's purchase of MBSs from the banks, that then get parsimoniously dolled out to factories in Asia and elsewhere by these big companies.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And when they're done? What about the jobs!

It's a big country! When you get towards completing a single project, I bet there will always be something else that needs doing.

Like an airport in a town of 2,000 that nobody uses, but ensure the Congressman will get reelected?

I could only imagine the abuse with a gov't directed jobs program!

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't watch ads and yet I still buy things. Granted, not as much as if I watched ads I'm sure.

If you don't buy something, and hold off on spending, then the GDP goes down, as the velocity of money slows down. If 1 dollar is spent 5 times a year, that economy has a higher GDP than when that 1 dollar is spent 4 times a year. Advertising makes sure that money is spent quickly, to increase the GDP by increasing the velocity of money in an economy. If you get rid of advertising, you slow down the economy.

You have astatement A and conclusion C but no B step.

Do people spend money without advertising?

I would say, yes they do. People have intrinsic wants and needs. Why would I so fulfilling them, because of a lack of extrinsic wants and needs?

Edit: also aren't you just trying to optimise to what is measured. GDP goes up, and that's beneficial because? Greenspan says so?

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#160
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it doesn't. These people wouldn't just hoard their money because there is no ad telling them what to buy... They'd just be exercising their own agency, rather then cokes, or nikes.

They might often buy an inferior product instead. If there were no advertising, not many people would know about—let alone buy—video games. But dollar for dollar video games are much better for them than alternatives like drugs.

Because advertising is hall mark of quality?
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