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Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

nytimes.com

91–100 of 266 posts

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#91
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the absolutely embarrassing state of our country, hole diggers are exactly what we need. Legitimately go pay someone to dig holes all day and lay single-mode fiber to every home. Pay them to turn a wrench replacing support brackets on a bridge. The Works program was the single most successful employer in this country's history and we replaced it with welfare because "unemployment is low and we don't need it any…

And when they're done? What about the jobs!

It's a big country! When you get towards completing a single project, I bet there will always be something else that needs doing.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#92
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The advertising industrial complex is paradoxically what employers are willing to pay for, but we humans don't need.

Honestly explain this to me: in what sense do we not need advertising? I don't want to research the 200 brands of almond milk or 85 sushi restaurants in my neighborhood -- I want some proxy, however imperfect, for their quality, availability and value. I want someone to come find me and tell me that their milk or restaurant or whatever exists. And as someone who sells things, how am I supposed to make the public awar…

>> I don't want to research the 200 brands of almond milk or 85 sushi restaurants in my neighborhood

Neither do I. I'll just pick one arbitrarily. It's almond milk. I might even just skip it entirely. I don't even really need milk, if giving up advertising meant I had to drink water that's fine.

I think the issue here is that you're approaching this from a consumerist viewpoint to begin with - it's difficult to explain exactly what's wrong because it's a completely foreign approach.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#93
post #77

Manufacturing isn't coming back. Do you think your average American would put up with the conditions in a Chinese iPhone factory?

When I was 20, I worked washing dishes in restaurants. I applied for a job at a semiconductor manufacturer but didn't get it. I jumped at the opportunity when it came to work with electronics at a small shop. I would have tried manufacturing. But I don't know what "conditions" you're referring to.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#94
Another way to view what Andy Grove was saying was we neither have capitalism, socialism, or central planning. Rather we have a toxic mix in many industries like Health Care, Defense, Drug Development etc. i.e the comment that what we have is inferior to "lasssez-faire" or free market.

China has used central buying/orders to drive up artificial demand/buying and as a result has a massive over capacity and debt problem that appears to actually be stickier and worse than ours.

I think the best learning is it's better to make a clear choice on the system to allocate resources rather than hybridize it. US Example? Healthcare-- Either go completely public like those in Europe which spend 4-6% of their GDP to cover health or go 100% provide and move government out of it . These hybrid systems have us spending 20% of our income on healthcare so we get the worst of both worlds.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#95
post #76

> "There was room for improvement, he argued, for what he called “job-centric” economics and politics. In a job-centric system, job creation would be the nation’s No. 1 objective, with the government setting priorities and arraying the forces necessary to achieve the goal, and with businesses operating not only in their immediate profit interest but also in the interests of “employees, and employees yet to be hired.”…

Given the absolutely embarrassing state of our country, hole diggers are exactly what we need. Legitimately go pay someone to dig holes all day and lay single-mode fiber to every home. Pay them to turn a wrench replacing support brackets on a bridge. The Works program was the single most successful employer in this country's history and we replaced it with welfare because "unemployment is low and we don't need it any…

Today, the ditch digging s done with small excavators, not with hordes of guys with shovels...

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#96

> "There was room for improvement, he argued, for what he called “job-centric” economics and politics. In a job-centric system, job creation would be the nation’s No. 1 objective, with the government setting priorities and arraying the forces necessary to achieve the goal, and with businesses operating not only in their immediate profit interest but also in the interests of “employees, and employees yet to be hired.”…

Hong Kong is a prime example of the government improving quality of life by staying out of the way of business. http://triblive.com/mobile/6727056-96/hong-kong-free

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#97
post #76

> "There was room for improvement, he argued, for what he called “job-centric” economics and politics. In a job-centric system, job creation would be the nation’s No. 1 objective, with the government setting priorities and arraying the forces necessary to achieve the goal, and with businesses operating not only in their immediate profit interest but also in the interests of “employees, and employees yet to be hired.”…

Given the absolutely embarrassing state of our country, hole diggers are exactly what we need. Legitimately go pay someone to dig holes all day and lay single-mode fiber to every home. Pay them to turn a wrench replacing support brackets on a bridge. The Works program was the single most successful employer in this country's history and we replaced it with welfare because "unemployment is low and we don't need it any…

[deleted]

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because an economy driven mainly by consumerism is not sustainable in the long run. Such an economy requires unchecked growth and this falls apart once society starts consuming for the sake of consumption.

The entire global economy since the beginning of time is about consuming. What makes you think it would fall apart at all?

Exponential growth.

There's a myth out there that we are unconstrained by physical resources. And it has largely been true "since the beginning of time". But that time is quickly coming to an end -- the next big generation shift will be the acceptance of a resource-constrained world imho.

Look at meat consumption. It takes something like 10x as much energy to grow a calorie of meat as it does a calorie of vegetables. If the entire world (or even just the global middle class, if something like that exists) ate as much meat as the developed world, it would be an ecological catastrophe growing all that livestock, disposing of its waste, and fertilizing the grain needed to feed it. And guess what, as the populations of India and China are entering the middle class, they're adopting a taste for meat-heavy diets.

Energy consumption per capita is a pretty good proxy for human development. Whether it's meat or our plastic lawn furniture that we consume from amazon, all of it takes energy to produce. In other words, consumption is another word for energy, and if even a sizable chunk of the world consumed as much as we do in the western world, it would require something like more energy than all proven oil reserves. Clearly that's not going to work.

We can always hope for the deus ex machina ending and say that we'll find salvation in technological progress (whether it's an efficient way to store solar or figuring out fusion or an FTL drive top open up new worlds), but that requires a dangerous amount of hope. It's also the path of inaction -- wait for someone else to deliver salvation.

More realistically, I think consumption is starting to hit physical resource constraints and is inflecting towards the top of the S-curve. The entire global economy since the beginning of time may have been about consuming, but that doesn't mean the party can continue.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with a job-centric economy is that it's based on the need of humans rather than the needs of the economy. In reality technology makes it possible for less and less people to increase their output and span of what they can control via technology. Some day a few people will be running large systems that requires only drones, AI's and access to resources to create what today takes millions. By insisting on k…

> The problem with a job-centric economy is that it's based on the need of humans rather than the needs of the economy. Society is made up of humans. The economy in your case is the tail wagging the dog. The problem with your train of thought is that it isn't sustainable. When people get fed up and start burning ubers, the folks betting against people will be the ones finding their backs on he wall.

Are you familiar with the term "force multiplier?"

How many people has the US military killed over the last 10 years? How many US military personnel have been killed? The ratio is on the order of 100:1. (I'm not making any kind of moral judgement about the US military here, just pointing out it's raw effectiveness at a core competency, which is killing without being killed.)

People are not a great bet in the present technological era.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#100
post #95
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the absolutely embarrassing state of our country, hole diggers are exactly what we need. Legitimately go pay someone to dig holes all day and lay single-mode fiber to every home. Pay them to turn a wrench replacing support brackets on a bridge. The Works program was the single most successful employer in this country's history and we replaced it with welfare because "unemployment is low and we don't need it any…

Today, the ditch digging s done with small excavators, not with hordes of guys with shovels...

Welp I guess that yields the whole point moot.
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