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Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

nytimes.com

41–50 of 266 posts

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#41
post #38

Adam Smith was making this same argument the only time he ever used the term "invisible hand." Smith assumed (incorrectly) that capitalists would always prefer their own domestic markets. For Smith, his conception of capitalism was good because it offered the best chance at achieving equality. However, globalization of capital has proven that his underlying assumptions were incorrect, so it may very well be that Smit…

Another issue is the scale that modern business can operate at. A free market with two players isn't really "free" in a meaningful sense of the word.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#42
post #5

I majored in circuits because back then that's where the money and talent went in Silicon valley. Many of my classmates have since switched to software. The few remaining IC and fab people make pennies compare to the programmers. They also have PhDs to our BS and Master degrees. Software seems more robust but I don't trust myself to make predictions.

I'm starting a PhD in circuit design this Fall. What I've read and noticed is that there will be a shortage in strong hardware researchers in a few years due to the rising popularity of AI and ML. What do you think about this? However I also have working experience in software dev, just in case this prediction doesn't pan out in the long run. I'm actually going to work on a small business idea (likely SaaS) before my…

If the AI algorithms can only be optimized by pushing them into silicon, then a HW background could be valuable.

However, many software architectures have yet to embrace the pipelining and parallel capabilities of today's CPUs... meaning the need for application-specific ICs could be many year away.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#43
Truly an inspiring man.

Jobs for the uneducated are disappearing and saying "well lets just educate everyone" is not enough. I'm racking my brain trying to come up with ways that tech can solve that problem but it seems like an upward battle (e.g. Uber makes anyone a cab driver, but in a few years, will fire all those people when automated cabs hit the road).

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#44
post #28

> "There was room for improvement, he argued, for what he called “job-centric” economics and politics. In a job-centric system, job creation would be the nation’s No. 1 objective, with the government setting priorities and arraying the forces necessary to achieve the goal, and with businesses operating not only in their immediate profit interest but also in the interests of “employees, and employees yet to be hired.”…

I think there is a significant confluence among those who find prosperity and purpose through jobs to conflate the concepts of employment and purpose. That to not have a job is to not have a purpose, and vice versa. If we had a planned economy built around peak employment, we would have many fewer entrepreneurs and many more, as you say, hole diggers. Socially we already do that. We have created a gargantuan advertis…

The advertising industrial complex is paradoxically what employers are willing to pay for, but we humans don't need.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#45
post #38

Adam Smith was making this same argument the only time he ever used the term "invisible hand." Smith assumed (incorrectly) that capitalists would always prefer their own domestic markets. For Smith, his conception of capitalism was good because it offered the best chance at achieving equality. However, globalization of capital has proven that his underlying assumptions were incorrect, so it may very well be that Smit…

I strongly suspect that Smith was right and that the rise of global capitalism has more in common with Mercantilism than actual Capitalism.

Then again, Smith may well be my One True Scotsman :) Isn;t there a baby in that bathwater?

I do recommend the bookTv ( CSPAN anyway ) presentation of Peter Whybrow on his book "The Well-Tuned Brain".

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#46
I think the rise of Trump reflects the reality of a declining middle class and the overall problem of political stability in the face of declining opportunity and economic security for most people. In business it is easier to focus on the short term win. Corporations have profited from being stateless, from offshoring and outsourcing. But it remains to be seen what the long term cost will be. I suspect the backlash will be strong because when people have their backs to the wall they lash out.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#47
There is supposedly some reshoring in the US but I don't really see it from hardware startups unless they have something bulky/specialized/low volume. The bigger question is not whether we should employ in one taxation region or another to concentrate wealth as we see fit, but rather how quickly generalized arms, machine vision and new manufacturing processes will impact our ability to rely on labor as a source of societal stability.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#48

If the U.S. really had a shortage of prosperity then this would make sense. The problem is that the U.S. already has more wealth than it knows what to do with, it's just that it's completely misallocated. And given the fact that sending our designs to China to get manufactured is basically the only thing stopping them from going to war with us, I'm not convinced it really makes sense to give up this benefit in order…

To some epsilon, the Pareto Distribution describes income. There's only one parameter to a Pareto Distribution - the alpha.

In at least US income distribution, we have also a curious "bump" up the food chain in addition to what a pareto distribution would predict. Isn't that the entire nail on which income inequality hangs?

"Bump" at around $250 k in this chart: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Distribution_of_Annu...

Other have also said that in terms of real, physical , tangible wealth there is no disparity - that all of the stock options and bonus plans have less physical referent than even a paycheck.

That seems to doom us to this state of affairs. Er, it would if the map was the territory, but the fact that this distribution exists implies the existence of forces that cause it. Are we then repeating the error of the Levellers with this?

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#49
post #17
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that piece: " Levy an extra tax on the product of offshored labor. (If the result is a trade war, treat it like other wars—fight to win.)" I don't claim to have good/better ideas on this issue, but starting a trade war and fighting it to win does not sound very promising, especially since trade wars can develop into, well, plain wars (the decade from 1929 to 1939 had its fair share of protectionism and ended pre…

> fight to win What exactly does victory in a trade war look like?

The British Empire. So it depends on when you look.

Re: Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley

#50
post #44
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a significant confluence among those who find prosperity and purpose through jobs to conflate the concepts of employment and purpose. That to not have a job is to not have a purpose, and vice versa. If we had a planned economy built around peak employment, we would have many fewer entrepreneurs and many more, as you say, hole diggers. Socially we already do that. We have created a gargantuan advertis…

The advertising industrial complex is paradoxically what employers are willing to pay for, but we humans don't need.

Honestly explain this to me: in what sense do we not need advertising?

I don't want to research the 200 brands of almond milk or 85 sushi restaurants in my neighborhood -- I want some proxy, however imperfect, for their quality, availability and value. I want someone to come find me and tell me that their milk or restaurant or whatever exists. And as someone who sells things, how am I supposed to make the public aware of the existence of my very good product which nonetheless fills a niche that is well-occupied and not a very important part of people's lives (and therefore unlikely to be discussed unless immediately sought)? How should I best let consumers know that my product is different because of its features, or the craftsmanship, or whatever. Should we all live in universes bounded by the speed of chatter, so that HN's pure market sensibilities can be satisfied? Should I just wait for customers to stumble upon the right keywords to make my product show up in their ad-free search results?

This idea that advertising has no use and exists sort of parasitically is baffling to me. Even more baffling is that it's a meme which routinely nets all the upvotes on a place like HN -- where presumably the commenters are more likely to have actually created and sold valuable things, and therefore, one assumes, would have more than an academic appreciation for how business is done.

It's been said many times before, but the level of discourse around here is retreating rapidly into equal parts academic idealism and Reddit-esque karma-driven populism.

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