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Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

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Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#51

Post by alphydan »

herge wrote: post #16
jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are in Quebec - join us at http://revenudebase.quebec In Canada: join us at : http://biencanada.ca

What do you think about Jean-Robert Sansfaçon's critique in Le Devoir ( http://www.ledevoir.com/economie/actualites-economiques/4624... ), where he calculates that to give only 10,000$ per inhabitant in Quebec per year, you would need 68 billion dollars, ~22 times the amount currently spent on social welfare. Also, that would constitute 70% of the current tax revenue of the Quebec government.

According to the Canadian government [0], if I'm reading it correctly, the money coming in was around $150bn/yr in 2013. So 60bn may be a high but reasonable figure.

edit: more recent stats [0] show 104bn coming in, 5bn spent is social tax breaks, 0.5bn spent in food pensions.

[0] http://www.stat.gouv.qc.ca/statistiques/economie/comptes-eco...

[1] http://www.revenuquebec.ca/fr/salle-de-presse/statistiques/r...

Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#52

Post by karmacondon »

xrange wrote: post #30

Here's something I like to see some discussion on from Basic Income proponents. Does BI need to be rolled out everywhere-all-at-once, or is it possible to do small scale experiments to look at the effects? If you think it is possible to have meaningful smaller scale tests, how small can it be? 1000 participants? 100,000 participants? 10,000,000 participants? And then the big question, would there be any outcomes from…

There have been multiple tests of the ideas behind BI:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mincome

* https://decorrespondent.nl/541/Why-we-should-give-free-money...

* http://freakonomics.com/podcast/fighting-poverty-with-actual...

The problem is that it often isn't possible to falsify or confirm ideas based on limited tests. You can set up a minimum income for one town, or give money with no strings attached to several groups of people, but it won't answer a lot of the long term societal questions. It's like asking if you can test social security or universal healthcare. Those tests might not illuminate problems that could occur on a large scale, 50 years down the line.

Sometimes the only way to test something is to do it.

Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#53

Post by quirkot »

twoodfin wrote: post #28

Sorry, which "powerful political forces"? A Canadian newspaper? In keeping with HN guidelines, I don't like to comment on why I flag articles, but I'm going to continue to flag the nearly content-less Basic Income posts that seemingly rocket up the front page a few times a week. I'm sure there are comprehensive, insightful articles on BI out there. If they're ever posted, I'll probably vote them up.

"the [...] Basic Income posts that seemingly rocket up the front page a few times a week"

Sounds like HN is also one of those powerful political forces

Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#54

Post by manyoso »

debacle wrote: post #37
manyoso wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would take the cost/benefit of a combination UBI and VAT over a wealth/income tax with current social safety net any day and twice on Sunday.

The problem with VAT is that it's a tax on consumption, not a tax on the accumulation of wealth. It's incongruous with the goals of UBI. A wealth tax and an income tax are two different things.

Yes, I understand that but a VAT need not be out of step with the goals of a UBI if the UBI is protected from the regression of a VAT by scaling it with the cost of living.

Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#55

Post by mikeash »

xrange wrote: post #30

Here's something I like to see some discussion on from Basic Income proponents. Does BI need to be rolled out everywhere-all-at-once, or is it possible to do small scale experiments to look at the effects? If you think it is possible to have meaningful smaller scale tests, how small can it be? 1000 participants? 100,000 participants? 10,000,000 participants? And then the big question, would there be any outcomes from…

I don't think you can do small scale experiments, unless you do it using an entire small country. The idea is that you raise taxes too, and naturally you'll have winners and losers. I don't think the losers (wealthier people) will tolerate being forced into the program while others are left out of it. If you let people choose, then only the winners (poorer people) will choose to participate, which will deeply distort the results.

If you can do such an experiment (by, for example, instituting BI in a small country) then there are certainly outcomes that would indicate BI isn't feasible. The big questions are whether people in a BI scheme will continue to work, and whether the higher taxes needed to pay for it will kill the economy. If everybody quits their jobs and the taxes strangle the economy then that indicates BI isn't feasible. If everybody keeps working and the economy proceeds as usual then that indicates it is.

I don't think Social Security is a useful example precisely because it's aimed at retirees. You don't get much useful information about people's willingness to continue working when you target it at people who have retired. The tax rates needed to support it also look artificially low because the SS tax base is much younger than the SS recipients, and population growth means the former group is disproportionately large. Finally, it doesn't really look much like a BI scheme, because what you get out of SS is based on what you paid in, it's not at all universal.

Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#56

Post by twoodfin »

jerelunruh wrote: post #36

Let's say that currently rent is $1,000 per month, food is $500, and Alice is earning $2,500. Now UBI is implemented and Alice and all fellow citizens receive $1,000 per month. What will keep the market from easing the entry level rent up to $1,500 and food to $1,000 since the money is available? At first glance it seems like we'd just be choosing a different number representing "broke".

BI shouldn't be more inflationary in the aggregate than any other government scheme that redistributes income in a comparable way. The only difference would be which goods have more money chasing them. That choice would be made by the market (of net BI recipients after any tax clawback) instead of by politicians & bureaucrats, which has a certain appeal.

Currently, if you want access to much redistributed income, you can only use it to eat what USDA allows you to, or live where HUD tells you to. I find that a rather degrading way to treat our fellow citizens.

Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#58

Post by manyoso »

locopati wrote: post #34

Honest question - how does UBI address hikes in the cost of basic necessities (food, shelter, clothes) by companies knowing that everyone can afford them?

The UBI can be scaled by the cost of living index which will shelter it from inflation. We have a sovereign money supply for a reason. Let's use it!

Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#59

Post by drabiega »

manyoso wrote: post #49
drabiega wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VAT is a great alternative to a US style sales tax, but it is still regressive and UBI + regressive taxation seems like a pretty terrible combination.

Not if the UBI is tied to the cost of living index. Essentially, this means the UBI will be immune to the regression of the VAT.

The problem is that UBI only works if it's redistributive. If you don't change the income distribution, the distribution of goods and services doesn't change. It seems to me like cost of living UBI + regressive taxation would just cause inflation with the UBI always lagging behind the newly higher costs.

Re: Powerful Political Forces Are Aligning Behind Minimum Income

#60

Post by manyoso »

Kenji wrote: post #14

Haha, I love how the tech community is so liberal and critical against government when it comes to privacy and meddling with our private lives, yet that exact same community is mostly in agreement with UBI which in turn means being completely dependent on the state. If the state thinks you do something it does not like (you're a ''terrorist''), your UBI will be striked - you know that, right?

Liberals understand that we are the state as a government of the people, by the people and for the people. Probably we remember this from grade school and also we don't instinctively fear the 'other' like you guys.
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