If all human jobs are eliminated, that means you never have to hire a human to get something accomplished. "But what about those who can't afford the super expensive robots?" you say? If they are too expensive, you'll just have to trade with your fellow humans who also can't afford them, just like you do now. Millions of people all over the world do jobs that are already automated. The Amish even do it right here in…
Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
31–40 of 51 posts
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do we have to hash this out in every HN thread that touches on economics? These arguments are very weak. Plenty of people don't believe in police. Plenty of people homeschool and / or don't like what government schools have done. The "who will build the roads" trope is so tired that - and I'm not kidding here - one of the ice cream vendors at the Porcupine Festival has a best-selling flavor, "Who will build the rocky…
Maybe we wouldn't have to hash this out in every thread if you'd explain how some people don't benefit from police or public roads (whether you "believe in them" or not).
I think it's called Somalia.
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#33It's how nearly all musicians, artists, designers, actors etc were surviving during those decades and why they didn't end up abandoning their dreams to office jobs.
That 'Withnail & I' existence certainly wasn't one that many others would choose due to the low income and otherwise tawdry lifestyle, but it was actually the engine for the big success story behind UK culture - which has turned out to be one of its biggest exports and biggest draws.
The reason London is now seen at the world's coolest city where everybody wants to come to study, live, invest, and set up shop is its cultural capital and that can be traced back to the fact that all of the people running clubs, fashion designers, and musicians etc were enabled off that benefits system.
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#34The article is a chain of economic fallacies. > Modern economies are increasingly based around information. Information "wants to be free"—as the saying goes—but free things are bad for capitalism, because capitalism is about competition and making profits. Tons of companies are based on providing information. Even if the information is public, sorting it and providing it efficiently has real value (such as google).…
OP said "Zero marginal cost", not "Zero cost". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marginal_cost
Once you have made the capital investment for your solar panel, the electricity it generates is basically free. In economics terms, the marginal cost of an extra kW/h consumed is zero. This is different from the current economy where each marginal kW/h of electricity consumed costs the same price.
It's perhaps a bit of an oversimplification for OP to say "Energy won't be subject to market forces", since there will still be a market for solar panels. But the more that solar energy production is decentralized and commoditized, the less there will be a market for the generated energy itself.
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe we wouldn't have to hash this out in every thread if you'd explain how some people don't benefit from police or public roads (whether you "believe in them" or not).
I don't mean to be undiplomatic, but there's no way I'm going to encapsulate this is an HN comment. Books! You must read books! If you want something really easy to start with (albeit a surface scratcher), try The Revolution: A Manifesto by Ron Paul. I don't even understand why anybody thinks that the default position is that everyone benefits from police. The burden is on you to prove that one.
Books are text. There is not actually anything preventing you from conveying the relevant information in an HN comment. Here, I'll do it from the other side.
There is clearly no physical law that says private companies can't hire construction workers to build roads. But private roads are economically inefficient.
Roads cost money to construct but not to use. Road maintenance costs are overwhelmingly dominated by natural forces (i.e. weather). Therefore the efficient price for road use is a fixed cost of construction/maintenance and ~$0 per mile.
But the typical private solution to paying for roads is tolls. Tolls don't match the efficient cost structure. They convert sunk costs into variable costs which inefficiently reduces usage of the valuable resource. This error compounds itself. If covering construction/maintenance costs would cost $.25/mile but that price deters some usage, then the price has to be raised to meet total costs against the lower usage, so the price goes to $.40/mile. That would deter yet more usage which increases the price to $.50/mile. The price stabilizes at quite a high price point that deters a large amount of productive use of the roads.
Another problem with tolls is that they don't match the value received from the resource. Someone who doesn't drive at all but once had to have an ambulance take them to the hospital will have derived the full value of the rest of their life from having the roads but will have paid hardly anything, which puts higher costs on everyone else and further compounds the inefficiency above. In a less extreme example, someone who ships a small quantity of high value freight over the roads is receiving the same value from them as someone who ships a large quantity of low value freight, but is paying significantly less.
So tolls are terrible, but what says a private group can't build roads and then charge a fixed annual cost to local residents for access to them? That actually works perfectly well, except that it's irresistibly coercive. Government-level coercive. Either you pay the "road tax" or you aren't allowed to leave your house and no one can visit you or deliver anything to you. It works for exactly the same reasons and in the same ways that government roads work because that's effectively what it is. The taxing power is derived from a monopoly on travel rather than a monopoly on force, but travel is important enough to make that a distinction without difference.
Now you've got a counterargument to make. The road company could have competitors. If they're doing a crappy job then someone else can build different roads and people will sign up for the other one. It would have to be a really, really crappy job because it would have to justify the cost of a second road network, but in theory it's possible, right? But not in practice. The "tax local residents for access to the roads" model is the most efficient one because it most accurately tracks the operator's actual costs. If someone is operating under that model, they're going to win in the market against someone who isn't. They're going to capture every customer whose road usage if charged per mile would put them over the fixed annual cost. But the per-mile competitor still has the same fixed costs, so for every switching customer they then have to increase the per-mile price, while the annual-price competitor can lower the annual price. In every iteration, the heaviest using customers who still use the per-mile roads realize that the new per-mile price puts them over the annual price, switch to the annual price company and cause another iteration, until the annual price company has 100% of the customers. Because their pricing model is more efficient.
So OK, both competitors can charge a fixed annual price, right? And then the same thing happens but the advantage goes to the one with more customers to start with. They have the same costs but more customers to amortize them over so they can charge lower prices and the lower prices attract more customers, creating a feedback loop that destroys the competitor. Or, if the competitors are willing to set prices that won't allow them to recover their maintenance costs, it creates a price war that, again, destroys one of the competitors (whichever one has the smallest cash reserves) and reinstates the monopoly. Which is why roads are a natural monopoly.
So the only efficient way to have "private roads" is to have a monopoly road company that collects periodic "road fees" from basically everyone regardless of how much they use the roads. But it's still a monopoly and monopolies can be very abusive if unchecked. So maybe what we need to prevent that is to make sure the local residents own the company, so they get a vote in how their road fees are used and how the roads are maintained. Do you see where this is going?
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#36Well I'm 30 and have been unemployed all my life. I'm safe at home, trying to make a game. Jobs aren't necessary anymore. That's what the industry and automation are for. In a way, you can say capitalism allows the development of industries, which in the end seems to reduce the necessity of having capitalism in the first place. I didn't read the article, but I always sense there is this weird belief that "people must…
What a statement. It rings of naivete. How would you pay for your living expenses? Are you living with someone who pays your living expenses? Do they work? Or are you on social welfare?
Who maintains the automation? Who designs these systems? Until robots and AI can do everything (which is a long way away), there's always going to be something that no one wants to do. Getting paid is an incentive to do it. We are also a long way from becoming a non growth focused economy. Until such a time as strong AI and a non growth focused economy become a reality (if ever), jobs are necessary, and always will be.
People also like to be useful, to feel like they matter, or be part of something greater than themselves. Jobs are one avenue for this fulfilment. Someone who is intentionally unemployed is not being useful. If you are on welfare, or your supported by family, then you are a burden. Others are required to work, but you choose not to at their expense. Why are you entitled to do what you want, when others can't? That is seen as unfair, so you cop resentment.
"I always sense there is this weird belief that "people must work and belong to something so that society can function"."
I suspect you believe this to justify your lack of motivation for employment. There is a big epidemic of this type of attitude in Japan (neet's) [1], where young people refuse to work and just live off their families income. It might be different if you had decided to quit your job and make your dream game. You were never employed and don't want to be.
I think we are in a weird point in western society, where we are generally more well off than any other time. The basic costs of living are relatively low for a single person, particularly if they live with their parents. A lot of the basic things have become much easier than before. So, its much easier to be unemployed (particularly in welfare based societies), and people will find all sorts of ways to justify their apparent lack of motivation.
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#37Well I'm 30 and have been unemployed all my life. I'm safe at home, trying to make a game. Jobs aren't necessary anymore. That's what the industry and automation are for. In a way, you can say capitalism allows the development of industries, which in the end seems to reduce the necessity of having capitalism in the first place. I didn't read the article, but I always sense there is this weird belief that "people must…
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#38I like the idea of basic income but I don't like the idea of raising income tax. I think capital gains tax should be raised and there should be a special tax on passive income. All Passive income sources are essentially small monopolies - If you own an asset from which you derive passive income without having to work at all; the dynamics of this are not so different from a corporation having a monopoly over an indust…
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
I watched the video you linked under the text "kids' version", concerning fractional reserve banking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqvKjsIxT_8 I believe that video contains a significant error. Around 13:00-16:00, it claims that a fractional reserve ratio of 9:1 with an initial capitalization of $1111.12 can lead to overall debt of almost $100,000 being issued. I believe this is incorrect and misunderstands how fr…
There are no such ratios, money multipliers are a myth. Money is created from nothing when banks lend. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarte...
> Money is created from nothing when banks lend.
In one sense you are right. If you add up everyone's net worth, it is greater than the amount of money issued by the central bank. But there is a natural limit on this process, because banks have to be able to fulfill checks cashed at other banks with real, central bank issued money.
Re: Welcome to the Post-Work Economy
#40Well I'm 30 and have been unemployed all my life. I'm safe at home, trying to make a game. Jobs aren't necessary anymore. That's what the industry and automation are for. In a way, you can say capitalism allows the development of industries, which in the end seems to reduce the necessity of having capitalism in the first place. I didn't read the article, but I always sense there is this weird belief that "people must…
"Jobs aren't necessary anymore." What a statement. It rings of naivete. How would you pay for your living expenses? Are you living with someone who pays your living expenses? Do they work? Or are you on social welfare? Who maintains the automation? Who designs these systems? Until robots and AI can do everything (which is a long way away), there's always going to be something that no one wants to do. Getting paid is…
What I mean is that we should not encourage people to do any job, and let them pursue things they like instead. So many people live on minimum wage, and don't go back to school.
I think it's a great thing to live with your parents. And if there are a lot of NEETs in japan, maybe there are reasons behind it which go beyond "naivete". Calling this an epidemic without trying to understand the reasons behind it is easy.
> Jobs are one avenue for this fulfillment.
What about working at fast food, mopping floors, bullshit jobs, etc? Fulfillment happens when you are educated enough to work in a domain you can be fulfilled with. Nobody gets a raise in those jobs.
> Others are required to work, but you choose not to at their expense.
Nobody is required to work, they decided to, it's consented, not slavery, and get both the advantages and the downsides. That's exactly what I'm talking about here. People can do what they want, yet if they work, most of the time it will be minimum wage, because everyone wants to work, so of course employers will always drive wages down. So of course it makes sense to stay unemployed.
> and people will find all sorts of ways to justify their apparent lack of motivation.
Why should people have any motivation? Is it some kind of a moral duty? Don't you read that people can be angry, desperate and resentful about their economic situation?
> then you are a burden
That's the worse thing you can call an unemployed person. Not only am I not interacting with anybody, but now I should feel guilty for my situation? How do you want me to improve my situation if you accuse me? I don't really like to continue this kind of conversation, because it only deal with social constructs, which aren't really good standards.