I don't know where to begin.
> Arguments like this presuppose that the TLS security system is exactly as it was in 1999
For the majority, it is. The % of sites that deploy all of the latest HTTPS bells and whistles, even just looking at the minority of sites that actually enable TLS, is in the low single digits. Only 8% of sites surveyed by Qualys SSL Labs... sites that are presumably run by people who care about security, unlike my bank, even bother to enable HSTS.
> major sites all pin certificates now
My bank doesn't. Enabling HPKP and HSTS is just risky from a commercial point-of-view. People aren't good at key management. If you botch it, you make your site inaccessible and you lose customers.
People screw it up all the time. I've done it. I was speaking to someone just today who was over-zealous with 'includeSubdomains' and made their product blog inaccessible (it was on a blog subdomain, which had an invalid TLS setup because wordpress.com don't support TLS on custom domains). It happens.
> if you're well-equipped enough to subvert a CA
Strawman, I never held this up as a threat. In any case, it's a bad defence of PKI. Being able to choose from N CAs doesn't help you. You only have to subvert one CA to own the world, just like DANE, where an attacker only has to break your registrar, or the domain registry, and you're toast. The 'world governments' you fear have the capability and thensome. Irrelevant.
The threat I explicitly mentioned is that if I own your DNS, I can get myself a cert for you domain. This has the same same threat models as DANE (if "owning your DNS" involves me compromising your DNS server and getting your DNSSEC keys, or guessing your domain registrar password), except DANE doesn't depend on horrible, ineffective, and privacy-invasive, hacks like OSCP... or allow me to simply keep certificates for domains I no longer own. DNS caching effectively gives you the equivalent of OCSP stapling for free.
> major sites all pin certificates now
TLSA records have all the configurability and capability of HPKP and more, and can be applied to any protocol/endpoint. They even cross the isle to work with the CA system if you so desire, unlike HSTS+HPKP which has become hostile to anything self-signed.
> STS and DANE aren't orthogonal
They are. DANE relates to key-pinning via TLSA records, not HSTS.
> forklift replacement of DNS that DNSSEC requires.
DNSSEC is backward compatible. You're talking twaddle. Enabling it these days, if you control your own DNS server, also takes seconds. With EC digital signatures, it's even sensible. Setting up HPKP+HSTS+OSCP stapling is far more fiddley...and stuck in the RSA stone age.