Earlier quoted context omitted.
Quick fact-check, both E-Class and S-Class are common in Germany: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxicabs_by_country
I am from germany. I have never seen a S-Class taxi.
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Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
201–210 of 213 posts
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#202They still have all of those regular drivers,It's hard to come up with a huge number of cars on the spot once self-driving cars are available.
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#203For the sake of comparison: the three largest US rental companies: Enterprise, Hertz and Avis together own about 2 million cars, have about 15,000 locations (most of which are competitive with each other), and have about $25 billion in annual revenue.
Why do I bring up rental cars, a market usually considered distinct from taxi and limo services? Because without a driver, there's no difference.
Uber is trying to crush the taxi market, but in an age of self-driving cars it needs to watch out for the rental car giants who will happily extend their daily-weekly rental cycles down to per-trip rentals, with pickup and drop-off anywhere in the country. The giants already have purchasing arrangements with the major auto manufacturers, supply chains, maintenance facilities, and parking lots to use as buffers.
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
The deal is probably similar to the way an airline buys planes. E.g consider when Ryanair bought 200 737s for $22Bn [1] which is about the same in it's entire market cap. An order like this is probably: * For a delivery spread over 10+ years * The vehicles will almost certainly be leased/finance * Each vehicle will probably assume a 5+ year working life and have a residual of about perhaps 25% of list after 5 years g…
Great analysis but this makes it sound even less likely. Going from zero marginal costs to something like this seems totally against their current model.
It seems like it would make more sense for a partner company to be the one that has all of this in the books and Uber just leases from them.
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
> After 5 years, the car is perhaps worth 20k. No way. Absolutely no way. Looking online I'm seeing estimates of 300,000 to 500,000 miles per year in a taxi. If Uber is even NEAR that max, this car is going to have 300,000 miles on it. Hell even 150,000 is a ton of miles on a used vehicle. Looking at KBB with a base S-Class that's 5 years old with 300,000 miles you're looking at roughly $12k in "good" condition (beca…
Cars are devalued by mileage because the average car is taken care of so poorly that small damage accumulates into big, irreversable damage over time. For example, waxing wears off -> unwaxed surface pits -> rust forms -> holes form. If you re-wax the car often enough to prevent it from ever pitting, you'll never see rust or holes no matter how long you own the car. Same for most of the other components. Individual d…
Except that, in practice, rental fleet cars are typically only kept until they have fairly modest mileage and then sold off.
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#206For the sake of comparison: the three largest US rental companies: Enterprise, Hertz and Avis together own about 2 million cars, have about 15,000 locations (most of which are competitive with each other), and have about $25 billion in annual revenue. Why do I bring up rental cars, a market usually considered distinct from taxi and limo services? Because without a driver, there's no difference. Uber is trying to crus…
Someone (their insurance? Them?) Won't let you rent until you're 25.
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here in Norway we even have Tesla Model S taxis. (The government subsidies are a bit crazy.) Edit: to be clear, these are regular taxis, not high-end/limousine/whatnot-service
Are there actual subsidies or just lower taxes on electric cars in Norway? EDIT We are being pedantic apparently. Are there any cash or cash like payments or is the subsidy purely in the form of a tax reduction?
Most of the subsidy is in the form of tax reductions, a little is in cash like payments (e.g. increased car allowance). But what does it matter? The distinction is purely arbitrary. If the government said "there will be no tax reductions, you get an equivalent cash payment instead", the end financial situation for both you and for the government is exactly the same.
If I sell you a donut for $3 and then give you $1 back, or I sell you a donut for $2, is there any meaningful difference?
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#208Anyone know how this volume compares to a Mercedes dealer's volume over 5 or 10 years?
Large dealers in california sell around 1200 S classes per year. More common dealers sell between 200 and 300 per year. Or were you comparing that to total volume? Market leaders sell a bit over a thousand per month.
Awesome, thanks, that helps bring some perspective.
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#209I'm kinda curious how it's possible for an organization to go through all it takes to produce self-driving cars (engineering, qa, logistics, sourcing, etc.) but is unable to build an app to find riders for these cars and manage yield of available seat-space.
Not really seeing the value-add of Uber at that point beyond the brand and historical data about customer rides as transportation is so fungible.
It's not entirely impossible that Uber/Lyft will engage in a race to the bottom while a bold automaker (such as Tesla) offers to buy out Lyft for it's trip data... to then stand on the sidelines as Uber goes bankrupt... to then purchase their data during liquidation.
I could be wrong, but it will be interesting to see where Uber executives take the company.
Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
The deal is probably similar to the way an airline buys planes. E.g consider when Ryanair bought 200 737s for $22Bn [1] which is about the same in it's entire market cap. An order like this is probably: * For a delivery spread over 10+ years * The vehicles will almost certainly be leased/finance * Each vehicle will probably assume a 5+ year working life and have a residual of about perhaps 25% of list after 5 years g…
> After 5 years, the car is perhaps worth 20k. No way. Absolutely no way. Looking online I'm seeing estimates of 300,000 to 500,000 miles per year in a taxi. If Uber is even NEAR that max, this car is going to have 300,000 miles on it. Hell even 150,000 is a ton of miles on a used vehicle. Looking at KBB with a base S-Class that's 5 years old with 300,000 miles you're looking at roughly $12k in "good" condition (beca…
Doesn't matter how many miles are on a car, all that matters is how many are left and incremental cost per additional mile due to maintenance/repair. :)