Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source • Hacker News Board

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#81

Post by mmakunas » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:52 PM UTC

adamt wrote: post #36

mmakunas wrote: post #6

Maybe I'm missing something but that number sounds hard to believe. An S-Class in the US is $100K. Even if a stripped down "utility" version was available at $50K that's $5B worth of cars. Yes, it's a "long term" order (i.e., not paid for and delivered at once), but that seems way beyond anything even Uber would do.

The deal is probably similar to the way an airline buys planes. E.g consider when Ryanair bought 200 737s for $22Bn [1] which is about the same in it's entire market cap. An order like this is probably: * For a delivery spread over 10+ years * The vehicles will almost certainly be leased/finance * Each vehicle will probably assume a 5+ year working life and have a residual of about perhaps 25% of list after 5 years g…

Great analysis but this makes it sound even less likely. Going from zero marginal costs to something like this seems totally against their current model.

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#82

Post by benhalllondon » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:53 PM UTC

archildress wrote: post #80

Uber is an interesting company for a number of reasons, but here's the part that interests me the most: Uber operates in a grey-area legal environment in the cities it operates in. Uber's defense / view on this is that they generate such a societal positive in terms of jobs that it outweighs the legal constraints. But, when your goal is to eventually use a fleet of self-driving cars and eliminate the job possibilitie…

They aren't creating jobs thou? They are creating a cheaper/better car service?

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#83

Post by ebbv » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:54 PM UTC

If Uber really is buying 100,000 cars, or anywhere near that number, it totally undermines their argument that they are a ride sharing app and not a straight up taxi/limo company.

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#84

Post by saalweachter » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:55 PM UTC

f_allwein wrote: post #67

bertil wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It Daimler can deliver cars that are able to handle Uber rides without a driver, including driving empty to location (considering Uber would send a destination location) then 100k vehicle does not sound like a lot. That feels like a big if, though. Having a deal in stock rather than cash also makes sense: it is unlikely that many people would buy cars from Daimler or anyone if Uber charges at cost (gas + maintenance)…

no pressure on Daimler then...

It's like a Kickstarter, but with several billion dollars.

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#85

Post by ghostly_s » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:56 PM UTC

archildress wrote: post #80

Uber is an interesting company for a number of reasons, but here's the part that interests me the most: Uber operates in a grey-area legal environment in the cities it operates in. Uber's defense / view on this is that they generate such a societal positive in terms of jobs that it outweighs the legal constraints. But, when your goal is to eventually use a fleet of self-driving cars and eliminate the job possibilitie…

When that happens, skirting the law will no longer be necessary. A company with no personnel costs, rather than low personnel costs, should have little trouble cutting a more attractive deal with municipalities. Or they can just lease the technology to the existing medallion-holders.

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#86

Post by archildress » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:56 PM UTC

benhalllondon wrote: post #82

archildress wrote: post #80

Uber is an interesting company for a number of reasons, but here's the part that interests me the most: Uber operates in a grey-area legal environment in the cities it operates in. Uber's defense / view on this is that they generate such a societal positive in terms of jobs that it outweighs the legal constraints. But, when your goal is to eventually use a fleet of self-driving cars and eliminate the job possibilitie…

They aren't creating jobs thou? They are creating a cheaper/better car service?

This article is a pretty good discussion on your exact point:

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/uber...

"Back in September of last year, Kalanick said at a conference that Uber was creating 50,000 new jobs for drivers around the world every month—more than doubling the 20,000 new monthly jobs Uber estimated it was generating in May.

...

Usually when we talk about job creation, we’re thinking in terms of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly payrolls report. So the economy added 126,000 jobs in March and 264,000 in February, while the unemployment rate was basically unchanged. That’s the language of the labor market. Because the drivers who use Uber’s app to accept your request for a ride and pick you up are independent contractors, they fall under the BLS’s umbrella of “alternative employment arrangements.” "

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#87

Post by usaphp » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:57 PM UTC

archildress wrote: post #80

Uber is an interesting company for a number of reasons, but here's the part that interests me the most: Uber operates in a grey-area legal environment in the cities it operates in. Uber's defense / view on this is that they generate such a societal positive in terms of jobs that it outweighs the legal constraints. But, when your goal is to eventually use a fleet of self-driving cars and eliminate the job possibilitie…

> "über's defense/view on this is that they generate such a societal positive in terms of jobs that it outweighed the legal constrains"

I doubt they care a bit about the amount of jobs they are creating, I would say their view is "they generate such a positive amount of cash that it outweighs the legal constrains" and if they see a possibility of removing their highest expense of getting that cash - they won't bat an eye on doing so because they already have a history of doing stuff that is on the edge of legality/morality.

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#88

Post by sirkneeland » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:57 PM UTC

nmrm2 wrote: post #42

atmosx wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was my thought actually - but reversed: Why on earth would they need that amount of cars when self-driving cars are just around the corner? If these are self-driving cars, it makes sense to me, otherwise it doesnt.

Retro-fitting. They buy plain old cars and then slap their sensor suite on top.

That seems way harder unless they plan on buying a very small number of car models. Every different car model (even the same model between years) has different performance characteristics (do you issue the same orders for "hit the brakes" to a car that needs 100ft to go from 40-0 as a car that needs 50ft?) and physical dimensions which would necessitate different software optimizations and sensor calibrations. Development plus rigorous testing of every configuration means this quickly gets out of hand unless you standardize on 1 or a very small number of models.

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#89

Post by stcredzero » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:58 PM UTC

mixedbit wrote: post #76

nikkwong wrote: post #66

Another concern for uber is what are people going to do to the inside of these driverless cars now? Passengers today are respectful to ridesharing vehicles they sit in--because the owner of the vehicle is close at hand and the human connection commands some respect. But when its just a group of (maybe drunk) passengers in an empty vehicle--where's the accountability?

Passengers won't be anonymous and Uber already has reputation system. Also you can already rent a car, and rented cars are usually not vandalized.

They are driven carelessly, smoked in, eaten in, etc...

Re: Uber seeking to buy self-driving cars: source

#90

Post by chc » Fri, Mar 18, 2016, 5:59 PM UTC

mixedbit wrote: post #76

nikkwong wrote: post #66

Another concern for uber is what are people going to do to the inside of these driverless cars now? Passengers today are respectful to ridesharing vehicles they sit in--because the owner of the vehicle is close at hand and the human connection commands some respect. But when its just a group of (maybe drunk) passengers in an empty vehicle--where's the accountability?

Passengers won't be anonymous and Uber already has reputation system. Also you can already rent a car, and rented cars are usually not vandalized.

Car rentals are fairly expensive. People tend to take better care of things they've put a lot into. Case in point, rental cars tend to be in much better condition than the back seats of taxis, which in turn are in better shape than the back seats of buses. I think people's concern is that single rides in self-driving cars might even rank below buses.