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Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

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Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#61

Post by simonbarker87 »

mikekchar wrote: post #45
peanut_merchant wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a similar problem in Scotland, I know a lot of people would love to have continued living in Scotland but can make >2 times the salary as a developer by making the move down to London. The cost of living in London is higher, but the increase in pay more than makes up for this. Granted, this is a move within the UK so it's not really a drain on the UK's economy but it leads to a more London-centric economy and…

What's really crazy is that salaries in London aren't that high (unless you are in the financial sector). I am constantly astonished by the low salaries (for qualified programmers) offered in most parts of Britain. I suspect that you could actually get away with building a consulting firm in the country side and getting companies to offshore work from the US.

£35,000 salary in the UK has the same buying power (for want of a better expression as a $60,000 US salary. Adjust for "because London" and you're looking at £45/55K (not hard in London) equating to $75K - $100K.

Thinking about it, I know a dozen or so people in the "poor deprived" north east of England earning over £40K who are under 30 years old so we're not all badly paid.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#62

Post by sndean »

mathattack wrote: post #51
lewisl9029 wrote: post #12

As someone who's lived in Vancouver for more than 10 years, then went to Waterloo for school (and lived in Toronto for most of my co-ops/internships), I think we Canadians should be more worried about highly educated millennials fleeing Canada entirely. Everybody I know from school who were offered the option to work in the US have picked up their Canadian degrees and left. To the Canadian tech industry: How are you…

According to the article real estate costs in Vancouver are half that of San Francisco. Are salaries half too?

Based on some quick Googling and Glassdoor, it looks like average salaries are ~110k vs. ~80k. The cost of rent in San Francisco looks to be ~190% higher.

Not sure how well those figures line up with reality, though.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#63

Post by daemin »

eru wrote: post #54
daemin wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's been a common theme among people talking about the rising house prices in Australia as well. That Chinese people just buy property to park their money overseas. But when someone looked at the numbers the number of houses that were bought by Chinese people were in the low single digit percentages. While this could create some upward pressure on prices it cannot be the only factor. For instance in Australia most…

Negative gearing, and the low density allowed. My own suburb, Glebe, is just ten minutes by bike from the central business district. Yet, single family dwellings prevail at low density. (At the light rail, some NIMBYs were rallying against an eight storey building to be put up. Ha! Twenty to forty would be better.)

Yeah, funnily enough that's where I used to live, although in an old block of apartments, and I believe I know which place you are talking about. Granted the single family houses around those streets are not exactly 'low density' as they are packed in quite a bit.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#64

Post by branchless »

tempestn wrote: post #48
ironsides wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question here - why not just rent and wait it out? edit/from the article; Rentals are hard to come by, and just as unaffordable. The vacancy rate of 0.8 percent is one of the lowest in the country, and the average monthly rent of C$937 for a bachelor suite is tied at highest with the cost in Toronto, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Rents for newly built units and renovated basement suites are pr…

You've pretty much got it. Still, while expensive, renting is still much more affordable than buying. The other problem is, decent SFH rentals are very difficult to come by. Here in Victoria, my friends who are looking for houses are all starting families and would like more space than most apartments offer. Many of them would be fine with renting as long as prices are unbalanced, but the rental market selection if y…

> renting is still much more affordable than buying

Because rent is constrained by wages. Land prices are constrained by fiat issuance. Fiat issuance is constrained by credibility.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#65

Post by wycx »

daemin wrote: post #37
raverbashing wrote: post #23

The Chinese are parking their money there, that's what's happening Hence people paying millions of dollars for a house that's falling apart But I'm glad to hear about Victoria.

That's been a common theme among people talking about the rising house prices in Australia as well. That Chinese people just buy property to park their money overseas. But when someone looked at the numbers the number of houses that were bought by Chinese people were in the low single digit percentages. While this could create some upward pressure on prices it cannot be the only factor. For instance in Australia most…

Prices are set at the margin.

A single digit percentage of actors in the market with the objective of not losing 100% of their capital by turning it into a hard asset in another country is sufficient to move the market.

In Australia it is the combination of negative gearing AND the 50% capital gains tax concession on investment properties. Average rental losses per negative gearer were reasonably constant and small up until 2001 when the 'sound economic manager' Costello introduced the CGT discount, intially for a limited time only to make up for the introduction of the GST. From 2001 onwards, claimed net rental losses have blown out significantly, such that the annual forgone tax is greater than what the federal government spends on universities. This is because the gains permitted with such generous CGT concessions more than make up for year-on-year rental losses. This strategy only makes sense when house prices are rising, which has been the case for ~20 years in Australia. Given that Australians are at, or close to the limit of their ability to take on more credit, real standards of living (real net disposable income per capita) have been falling for the last five years, it seems that the bubble may not be sustainable. Unless you internationalise the housing market and make it a place for turning cash into hard assests, like London.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#66

Post by branchless »

raverbashing wrote: post #23

The Chinese are parking their money there, that's what's happening Hence people paying millions of dollars for a house that's falling apart But I'm glad to hear about Victoria.

HAM is not the only reason. Canadian banks are lending insane amounts. People always say Canada's banks are "sound". Every bank is sound until land prices go into reverse.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#67

Post by kspaans »

lewisl9029 wrote: post #12

As someone who's lived in Vancouver for more than 10 years, then went to Waterloo for school (and lived in Toronto for most of my co-ops/internships), I think we Canadians should be more worried about highly educated millennials fleeing Canada entirely. Everybody I know from school who were offered the option to work in the US have picked up their Canadian degrees and left. To the Canadian tech industry: How are you…

Disclaimer: grew up in Ontario, studied at UWaterloo, then worked at BB, then worked in London, UK for 2 years, and now moving to Silicon Valley on a TN visa.

I wouldn't worry _too_ much about the brain drain. Sure the US is more lucrative for young people, but I would say Canada is more lucrative for families. Consider the public schools in Canada vs in the US, and cost of a UW degree vs a comparable university degree in the US. I don't think that most young Canadians who move to the US will stay there permanently.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#68

Post by wingsonfire »

lewisl9029 wrote: post #12

As someone who's lived in Vancouver for more than 10 years, then went to Waterloo for school (and lived in Toronto for most of my co-ops/internships), I think we Canadians should be more worried about highly educated millennials fleeing Canada entirely. Everybody I know from school who were offered the option to work in the US have picked up their Canadian degrees and left. To the Canadian tech industry: How are you…

Exactly same issue with India. India has tons of IT Company and Government invests a lot in education.. obviously pay is more in US but I think it is also environment.

That makes me wonder what has US done right to remain talent magnet

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#69

Post by ameen »

tempestn wrote: post #30

The USD median house price in Vancouver is misleading too, because it wasn't long ago that the dollar was at parity, and incomes certainly haven't changed much as the dollar has dropped by a third. Anyway, so far the effect on Victoria seems to be our own mini (compared to Vancouver; still nuts for most of the world) housing boom. I have three couples of close friends all house-hunting right now, and it's not a fun t…

> pay the better part of a million dollars for something with less than a day's deliberation

> the effect on Victoria seems to be our own mini housing boom.

Sounds a bit confusing. Are houses in Victoria priced at a Million dollars?

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#70

Post by branchless »

jbarham wrote: post #56
Apocryphon wrote: post #5

"The vacancy rate of 0.8 percent is one of the lowest in the country, and the average monthly rent of C$937 for a bachelor suite is tied at highest with the cost in Toronto, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp." Montreal? Calgary? Edmonton? Halifax? St. John's?

> Montreal? Calgary? Edmonton? Halifax? St. John's? Winter.

Montreal is great. I recommend it. Yeah it's a bit cold but it's dry so not damp cold. Would you rather be a bit cold or working like a dog for some US company where your healthcare could vanish overnight because your boss was in a bad mood?
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