Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4 • Hacker News Board

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#461

Post by stevehawk » Mon, Mar 14, 2016, 5:34 PM UTC

cubano wrote: post #338

mindcrime wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, defensive end Olivier Vernon just signed a deal with the New York Giants which will pay him an average annual salary of around 17 million dollars. And there was a huge signing bonus as well.[1] NFL seasons are 16 regular season games, plus 4 pre-season games. And then there are the playoffs, which a given team might or might not make or advance in. All told, given that the signing bonus is amortized over all th…

Osweiler QB from the Broncos just signed a huge deal with the Texans...$18mil/year but I haven't heard how much of that is guaranteed so I'm sure. A really big issue with NFL contracts is this "guaranteed money" thing...I believe the NFL is the only major US sports league who give player contracts without it, so you have to take those salary numbers with a grain of salt.

34 guaranteed over first two years

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#462

Post by Houshalter » Mon, Mar 14, 2016, 5:51 PM UTC

jules wrote: post #324

Houshalter wrote: post #308

We were discussing the probability that Sedol would win this game. Everyone, including me, bet 90% that no human would ever win again, let alone this specific game: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177592 I tried to estimate it mathematically. Using a uniform distribution across possible win rates, then updating the probability of different win rates with bayes rule. You can do that with Laplace's law of success…

The argument that AI is either much better or much worse does not apply here. It's not an accident that they chose this point in time to play against Lee Sedol instead of 10 years ago or 10 years in the future. They chose this point in time because they thought that they have a reasonable chance of winning. Also, he won with white but he will play with black next time, so playing the same sequence of moves can't happ…

That kind of makes sense, however the point was more that AI progress isn't gradual and continuous. It's (sometimes) rapid and has discontinuities.

Alphago was an entirely new method, using deep convolutional neural networks as a move generator. Therefore there wasn't any guarantee that it had to be just slightly better than previous Go playing algorithms, it could have easily been far above humans.

Likewise this is also the first time Go AI has been given Google scale resources. Both in terms of a team of the best researchers working full time on it, and their computing power. Whereas previous Go projects were all hobbyist things.

And Google didn't wait 10 years to challenge Sedol. The match was arranged only a few months at most after they started developing it.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#463

Post by TrevorJ » Mon, Mar 14, 2016, 6:43 PM UTC

grumpopotamus wrote: post #425

hguant wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be interesting to see a neural net evolve to take into account player state, not just game state. I play chess, and no where near professional levels, so I don't know if this anecdote is valuable, but if I see my opponent looking at a particular area of the board, I tend to take a second look. I suppose beating humans isn't AlphaGo's primary motive though - learning to play a perfect game of Go in general is…

This actually came up in the commentary. Michael Redmond actually mentioned that some amateurs watch to see where their opponent is looking, but he called it merely a "trick", and he said it is not useful in professional play.

That type of metagame seems useful though, in the sense that you can start to sense the state of mind of your opponent. If they are working harder than you think they need to, you might get away with a riskier move for instance.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#464

Post by TrevorJ » Mon, Mar 14, 2016, 6:49 PM UTC

dannysu wrote: post #109

In the post-game press conference I think Lee Sedol said something like "Before the matches I was thinking the result would be 5-0 or 4-1 in my favor, but then I lost 3 straight... I would not exchange this win for anything in the world." Demis Hassabis said of Lee Sedol: "Incredible fighting spirit after 3 defeats" I can definitely relate to what Lee Sedol might be feeling. Very happy for both sides. The fact that p…

Interesting point here: if you are the best Go player in the world, and you play against an AI that can beat you, it seems really possible that it makes you that much better. It would be interesting to see what the win ratio would be after match 10, match 50 or so on.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#465

Post by nutate » Mon, Mar 14, 2016, 10:15 PM UTC

fhe wrote: post #166

My friends and I (many of us are enthusiastic Go lovers/players) have been following all of the games closely. AlphaGo's mid game today was really strange. Many experts have praised Lee's move 78 as a "divine-inspired" move. While it was a complex setup, in terms of number of searches I can't see it be any more complex than the games before. Indeed because it was a very much a local fight, the number of possible move…

Crying tears of joy I hope... or are your friends computers?

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#466

Post by kazinator » Tue, Mar 15, 2016, 2:38 AM UTC

Also:

Lee Sedol doesn't have RAM that can be crammed with faithfully recalled gigabytes of information, and that allow exhaustive, yet precise searching of vast information spaces. The amount of short-term information Sedol can remember perfectly is very small by comparison, and doing so requires a lot of concentration and effort.

Secondly, the faculty with which Lee Sedol plays Go wasn't designed for the exclusive task of playing Go. Without having to load a different program, Sedol's brain can do many other things well.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#467

Post by fizixer » Tue, Mar 15, 2016, 3:04 AM UTC

dllu wrote: post #413

fizixer wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For anyone wondering, that's Ubuntu Linux (version most likely 14.04; Unity interface). off-topic: DeepMind should switch to a tiling window manager like i3 for increased keyboard-only productivity :)

The developers probably use whatever window manager they want. I'm personally a fan of i3 also. But there is nothing wrong with keeping the frontend machine used in this Go match in default Ubuntu desktop environment since its only purpose is to play Go with a graphical user interface anyway.

I know. I was half-joking.

Also given the progress of DeepMind so far, it's very likely that whatever desktop setups they have, is working very well for them.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#468

Post by gohrt » Tue, Mar 15, 2016, 7:41 AM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #392

V-2 wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What scientific studies are you referring to? Of course chess grandmasters aren't all-around geniuses, but many traits that are prerequisites for a successful chess player certainly are translatable into careers in other fields, and correlate with above average brainpower (good memory, discipline, long attention span, spatial intelligence etc.) Botvinnik was an accomplished engineer, Euwe had PhD in mathematics, Anat…

There's a whole body of research out there, but I just scratched the surface of it. Here's the first result that's coming up from a random Google search. https://psy.fsu.edu/faculty/ericsson/ericsson.exp.perf.html The references should be worth exploring, and I bet there's more recent research that expands on it as well. Here's a quote from the paper: > In a recent review, Ericsson and Lehmann (1996) found that (1) m…

You seem to be confusing two different claims:

1. A champion Go/Chess player could retire, and jump a successful career as . You refute 1.

2. A champion Go/Chess player could have pursued a career in from the start and made more money. You have not refuted 2.

For an example, many physics PhDs become successful software engineers and quants, making a mid-career jump to a different field.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#469

Post by gohrt » Tue, Mar 15, 2016, 7:44 AM UTC

b3n wrote: post #318

simondedalus wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah, not to belabor it, but if you can do something like be a champion in go or chess, chances are you have the mental skillset to do something exponentially more lucrative.

With the number of tournaments he has won (many of which have a winner's purse of <$100 000) I suspect he is already a millionaire.

Those are the big tournaments -- do the little tournaments stack up, or is it a year of practice leading up to an annual big win?

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#470

Post by gohrt » Tue, Mar 15, 2016, 7:45 AM UTC

Retric wrote: post #314

tibbon wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best (like absolute best) football|basketball|baseball players in the world make approximately what per game?

Best is around 10x that, but at the cost of their body and long term health. Nobody is playing professional football|basketball|baseball in there 50's, and even just 40 is pushing it. Where pro go players can 60+.

Interestingly, the world champions seem rather young.