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Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

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Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#442
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Off-topic: we (the human species) have built an AI that can master the game of Go, but we don't yet have the intelligence to publish charts correctly on the web. That blur of a JPG is half a megabyte!

Yeah honestly that would be much better presented as an SVG since its mostly solid colors and geometric shapes. Every browsers supports them, and all the big image editors as well; the trouble is that the rest of our software and culture hasn't caught on. Why am I taking bitmap screenshots of websites when they're almost completely text? We need to start building a tools ecosystem around vector graphics. An extra bon…

Screenshots might not be the best example, since there may be some "shiny cute effects" going around. However, reading your idea sprang another one in my head: screenshots shouldn't be restrained to the same rendering resolution as the rest of the system/the screenshot resolution should be configurable.

I don't require the screenshot to be instantaneous, I require it to appear instantaneous. In that sense, if the whole rendering pipeline is working to give me a framerate of 60 fps, then I could spend ten times as much rendering a screenshot without that delay being noticeable. Also, why on earth does Windows (don't know the behaviour on Linux/Mac) apply ClearType to a screenshot? That has always bugged me, there are some situations where you tolerate it and others where it hurts.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a bit of a slight of hand in this statistic -- yes, they can do runtime on a single machine, but it took the compute power of a small country to train the neural nets that are loaded onto that one machine.

And it took decades of play for Sedol to become a top player. I find the similarities a mix of satisfying and amusing.

You're conveniently forgetting that this "AI" is a representation of tens of millions of amateur plays which is far more than a few decades in total time. Not that Lee Sedol needs someone like me to defend him, but remarks like yours are very misleading.

A human is far, far, leagues, more efficient at learning than today's AIs. These AI requires millions of hours of man time of data to even come close to competing at the level of an expert person which did the same, and even arguably far better, in a "few decades".

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#444
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll risk assumption that somebody from Deepmind team is reading this. Guys, please, publish charts of win prob estimated by alpha go in time during these games. Some heatmap telling which moves did it consider as best for both sides during the games would also be cool, but that's surely more time consuming to prepare. It would be great to be able to have such things for top pro tournaments in the future.

Actually, it's a tradition that both Players should replay the game after the match, discuss about good moves, bad moves and what they were thinking during the match. I felt so sorry for Lee Sedol when I saw him lose the second match, facing an empty chair ,and he could only ask one of his friend to review the game. https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%8D%E7%9B%98

Or the helpless look of Aja Huang... like "I have no idea how to decipher that neural network, that's part of why you are here".

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#445
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I.e. Something like [1] for every move. I was a bit disappointed to learn that such table is only available for that particluar move at the first reading. [1] http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7587/fig_tab/natu...

Off-topic: we (the human species) have built an AI that can master the game of Go, but we don't yet have the intelligence to publish charts correctly on the web. That blur of a JPG is half a megabyte!

It didn't master anything. What the DeepMind team did was make an "AI" which means it can _imitate_ (to a certain degree) of "playing go".

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If he had made a dumb move and AlphaGo capitalized on it we would be talking about how the AI goaded him into a sense of safety.

If he had made a dumb move in response then we would be talking about how he made a really really dumb move, that even an amateur could have seen. The moves made by AlphaGo there were very bad.

If the situation was unwinnable then in a certain sense all moves are equally bad.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#447
post #260
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've said it doesn't require that, AlphaGo running on a single machine beats the cluster they're using 25% of the time.

So based on current data, Lee Sedol is exactly as good AlphaGo running on a single machine.

If you look at DeepMind's numbers, AlphaGo is meant to win more than 50% of the time against human players (expert). Right now, my opinion is that its actual capability in wins is less than 50%.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Go-Space understood well enough to know either way? The OMG-AI people claim that AGI would be dangerous because it would reliably innovate in new spaces and out-predict humans. So a true super-AGI would make go moves that were unexpected and incomprehensible with some percentage of misleading fake-outs, but it would still win most or all of the time. If the human exploration of Go-Space is close to the god's hand…

My intuition (and it's really only just that) is that Go space is large enough that AI would be able to outplay humans while still not even beginning to approach "perfect" play. If so, then I would also expect that humans should be able to follow the lead of AI into new areas of Go space, and outplay the AI (at least until the AI has a chance to learn and catch up). We'll know if this is the case in a couple of years…

> Either way, it's interesting to note that AlphaGo had literally thousands of games to learn from to find weaknesses in human play, but Lee Sedol seems to have only needed 3 before he was able to find weaknesses in AlphaGo's play.

To be fair we can't know how many games Sodol played in his own head to figure this out.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#449

Relevant tweets from Demis; Lee Sedol is playing brilliantly! #AlphaGo thought it was doing well, but got confused on move 87. We are in trouble now... Mistake was on move 79, but #AlphaGo only came to that realisation on around move 87 When I say 'thought' and 'realisation' I just mean the output of #AlphaGo value net. It was around 70% at move 79 and then dived on move 87 Lee Sedol wins game 4!!! Congratulations! H…

How frigging smart Sedol is?

It is believed now that Lee Sedol has a really good ability in reading AlphaGo's moves now (see: Micheal Redmond and AGA Game 4 commentary). Game 5 is going to be very interesting. I'm pretty sure the DeepMind team is just as excited. After game 4, they were noticeably far more ecstatic in the after-game press review.

Hassabis and Silver kind of reminded me of developers given the details of a bug that was notoriously difficult to find.

edit; I can't wait for the reviews of the entire 5 game series. If a book came out I'd very likely buy it. A book discussing both Go and AlphaGo AI at the same time consisting of people among the top of their respective fields would be amazing.

Re: Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4

#450
post #424
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Best is around 10x that, but at the cost of their body and long term health. Nobody is playing professional football|basketball|baseball in there 50's, and even just 40 is pushing it. Where pro go players can 60+.

Gordie Howe played in the NHL until he was 53.[1] Not really refuting your statement, which is essentially true, but it's worth your time to read the wikipedia page. He played on a professional hockey team with his two adult sons at one point(!). He played in the NHL in five different decades. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordie_Howe

Yep, it's interesting to see a few edge cases out there. There are a tiny number of people that came close to 50 in baseball:basketball:football.

  Julio Franco played baseball till 49.
  George Blanda played football till 48
  Nat Hickey played baseball till 45.
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