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Analyzing Caltrain Delays

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Re: Analyzing Caltrain Delays

#31

Data scientists blog about Caltrain data, come up with convoluted hypothesis about bias in sensors at two stations. Commenter on blog notices that Caltrain is occasionally single-tracking between those stations due to a bridge replacement. [1] "Data science" ends up with a bloody neck from Occam's razor. [1] http://www.caltrain.com/projectsplans/Projects/Caltrain_Capi...

There are a couple of reasons that this isn't the explanation. To pick one, the random data selection in the blog post showed data from October 2015 -- Feb 2016, and this Caltrain link appears to show the bridge work starting Feb 26th, 2016. So, no the just-so story doesn't appear to be just-so.

The data is very much consistent with the bridge work hypothesis. The website indicates a series of bridges are being replaced. Starting 9/28/15 with Tilton Ave. and proceeding northward to Monte Diablo Ave then Santa Inez Ave.

Re: Analyzing Caltrain Delays

#32

Data scientists blog about Caltrain data, come up with convoluted hypothesis about bias in sensors at two stations. Commenter on blog notices that Caltrain is occasionally single-tracking between those stations due to a bridge replacement. [1] "Data science" ends up with a bloody neck from Occam's razor. [1] http://www.caltrain.com/projectsplans/Projects/Caltrain_Capi...

The data was sound. They formed a hypothesis. They got a better explanation. Now they have a better hypothesis for the data anamoly. I don't think it's fair to fault them or to discredit the effort.

I'm criticizing the approach of starting the analysis in a vacuum and coming up with a hypothesis that fits the abstract pattern, when simple domain knowledge (from looking at a website, or a Caltrain station notice board) would have put them on the "right track" from the start.

What the authors did falls into the trap of a very stereotypical criticism of data science and doesn't do data science any favors.

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