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AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
301–310 of 596 posts
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#302The funny thing about AI at this scale is we don't really know why the computer does what it does. It's more of a inductive extrapolation that we can verify that a technique works for a small problem, so we'll throw a whole bunch of GPU power and data at it and it SHOULD work for a big problem. How it actually works is fuzzy though as there's just a couple of gigabytes of floats representing weights in neural network…
It certainly seems incomprehensible now, but that isn't necessarily true in neural networks - the amazing thing about some of the experiments using the results of intermediate layers in image recognition is that they seem to be building up higher and higher order "understanding" as you get to deeper and deeper layers which correlates directly with how a human might explain their strategy. You can imagine a means of i…
There's a name for this phenomenon: "Subsystem inscrutablity". See this presentation on Alpha Go linked to from here: http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/03/what-is-different-about-alp...
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
This looks like a good example of the Normalcy bias logical fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias That previous constraints have been beaten in no way supports the argument that we will beat the laws of physics this time.
The previous problems were solved because people were willing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to solve them. And they are still spending that kinds of money. If the normalcy bias was in effect, they wouldn't be spending that money.
Actually Normalcy Bias may in fact feed that kind of money spending until such time as reality hits. Assuming that people will automatically act more logically when large amounts of money is in play flies in the face of recent history. Just look at the recent housing loan crisis. Normalcy Bias played a part there.
It's certainly possible that we'll break more barriers with clever engineering and new scientific breakthroughs. But that doesn't mean the Normalcy Bias isn't in play here.
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#304I was at the 2003 match of Garry Kasparov vs Deep Junior -- the strongest chess player of all time vs what was at that point the strongest chess playing computer in history. Kasparov drew that match, but it was clear it was the last stand of homo sapiens in the man vs machine chess battle. Back then, people took solace in the game of Go. Many boldly and confidently predicted we wouldn't see a computer beat the Go wor…
I've never felt playing against what is suppose to be an entire room of machines (wether Deep Blue or Watson) to be fair. What would be fair is to limit the total mass of the computer to say 200kg and leave it at that. What is effectively happening is AlphaGo is running on a distributed system of many, many machines. Even Watson took an entire room. Google is paying a premium to push AlphaGo to win.
It's the software that's impressive. Why does how many physical computers it takes to run the software matter? It's physical footprint will almost certainly shrink as computers get more powerful.
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#305The funny thing about AI at this scale is we don't really know why the computer does what it does. It's more of a inductive extrapolation that we can verify that a technique works for a small problem, so we'll throw a whole bunch of GPU power and data at it and it SHOULD work for a big problem. How it actually works is fuzzy though as there's just a couple of gigabytes of floats representing weights in neural network…
The neural net guides the search for the right move, but the program ultimately considers many possible sequences and picks the one it thinks is best. The program could justify its choice in the same way human players do: by playing out alternative choices and showing how those choices would have put it into a worse position.
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#306I was really hoping to see a more technical discussion than what I found here in the comments. It's too bad that such a cool accomplishment gets reduced to arguments about the implications for an AI apocalypse and "moving the goalposts". This isn't strong AI, and it was at least believed to be possible (albeit incredibly difficult), but it is still a remarkable achievement. To my mind, this is a really significant ac…
> without having all of the training data in advance
What? They certainly trained the algorithm on a huge database of professional go games. It's even in the abstract. [1]
[1]: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7587/full/nature1...
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
The previous problems were solved because people were willing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to solve them. And they are still spending that kinds of money. If the normalcy bias was in effect, they wouldn't be spending that money.
Actually Normalcy Bias may in fact feed that kind of money spending until such time as reality hits. Assuming that people will automatically act more logically when large amounts of money is in play flies in the face of recent history. Just look at the recent housing loan crisis. Normalcy Bias played a part there. It's certainly possible that we'll break more barriers with clever engineering and new scientific breakt…
Normalcy bias may have people spending lots of money on fabs assuming that the problems would be solved by the time the fabs are built.
However, I'm talking hundreds of billions spent on R&D to specifically to solve problems associated with chip manufacture. It took on the order of 25 years to solve each of the problems listed in the grandparent's post. Nobody would spend that kind of money or time on something that they think somebody else would solve.
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#308How much did this match cost the AlphaGo team? (From a computing resources perspective)
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#309I had a feeling that AlphaGo would beat Lee Sedol yesterday after watching Fan Hui's interview [1].
According to Hui's recall, the defeat all came down to these things: the state of the mind, confidence and human error. The gaming psychology is a big part of the game, without the feelings of fear of being defeated and almost never making mistakes like humans do, machine intelligence beating human at the highest level of competitive sports/games is inevitable. However, to truly master to game of Go, which in ancient Chinese society, it's more of an philosophy or art form than a competitive sport, there is still a long way to go.
There were a ton of details Hui cannot speak of due to the non-disclosure agreement he signed with DeepMind, but those were the gist of the interview.
In the end, AlphaGo match is 'a win for humanity', as Eric Schmidt put it. [2]
[1] http://synchuman.baijia.baidu.com/article/344562 (In Chinese)
Google Translate: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&...
[2] http://www.zdnet.com/article/alphago-match-a-win-for-humanit...
Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches
#310Lee is not the best player NOW.