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AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

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Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#161
post #137
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think AGA had the rights to stream and comment this match. Where did you find this 9p AGA commentary? I don't see it in the list of AGA videos on youtube.

It was live streamed and the archive is now up on The Official AGA Youtube Channel at: AlphaGo ?p vs Lee Sedol 9p, 0400 UTC (8pm PST)[1] [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZugVil2v4w

Many thanks! I checked their youtube channel many times during the game, hoping they would cast this, as I found the Redmond commentary a little too shallow.

I don't understand how the AGA live stream didn't appear there for me?!

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#162
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of how good the deep learning network is on its own, the algorithm described in the DeepMind paper is an improved tree search.

Forest for the trees. Monte Carlo Tree Search was necessary and itself a massive improvement over minimax but not sufficient for creating a Go program to challenge professional players. The true innovation here is the neural networks. Without those networks to guide it AlphaGo plays far worse than existing programs. The fact that those networks are sufficient is pretty incredible. We already knew that by inventing th…

> Forest for the trees.

Heh, nice one.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#163

Deep Blue: Massive search + Hand-coded search heuristics + Hand-coded board position evaluation heuristics [1] AlphaGo: Search via simulations (Monte Carlo Tree Search) + Learned search heuristics (policy networks) + Learned patterns (value networks) [2] Human strongholds seem to be our ability to learn search heuristics and complex patterns. We can perform some simulations but not nearly as extensively as what machi…

Strong AI is not necessarily a bad thing. Instead of worrying about questions 1 & 2, we could be thinking less about constraint and competition with AI and more about cooperation and goal-orientation: e.g. the work of Yudkowsky (https://intelligence.org/files/CFAI.pdf) or some of the thoughts provided by Nick Bostrom http://nickbostrom.com/. Goal-orientation is preferable to capability constraint because the potential benefits are far larger.

Tl;dr: I, for one, welcome our robot overlords (so long as they don't behave like our robot overlords).

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#164

Can someone explain why this is more impressive than a computer beating top chess players over a decade ago? I'm not very familiar with Go, and while there were far more squares on a Go board, it seems less sophisticated than chess to me. Maybe Go has way more moves possible and emergent strategies or something I'm not taking into account.

Firstly there are vastly more positions in Go. Secondly, it's very hard to evaluate a Go position, especially at the start of the game when there are few stones on the board. In chess you can get a long way using a simple evaluation (K=99, Q=9, R=5, B=3, N=3, P=1).

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#165

Can someone explain why this is more impressive than a computer beating top chess players over a decade ago? I'm not very familiar with Go, and while there were far more squares on a Go board, it seems less sophisticated than chess to me. Maybe Go has way more moves possible and emergent strategies or something I'm not taking into account.

Chess is quite tactical and brute-force-y -- the board is quite small, games are quite short, and there aren't all that many possible moves at any given point.

A program can play pretty good chess on modern hardware just by alpha-beta searching with a fairly simple evaluation function for the leaves of the search tree.

The best programs are cleverer than that; they have sophisticated evaluation functions, they prune and extend their searches, etc. But at heart, what makes them so strong is that they can search deeply.

That approach doesn't work so well for go. The board is 6x the size, games are 4x as long, the "branching factor" (number of moves available in a given position) is 10x as large. (All figures very crudely approximate.) If you try to make a fairly-dumb searcher in go, it will play very badly.

So how do humans manage to play well in go? By smarter searching, with a better idea of what moves are worth considering; by thinking strategically; by having a feel for the shape of a position ("moving here is likely to be very valuable").

Those are all things that feel like they are harder to make a computer do, and come closer to actual intelligence, than doing well at chess just by doing an enormous search.

The first of those is certainly correct. AlphaGo (like most modern go programs) organizes its searches in quite a different way from a typical chess program. It's not clear how far it deserves to be called smarter, though, since a lot of what it's doing is playing out lots of games fairly stupidly[1] and seeing how they go on average.

[1] Compared with how it actually plays. One of the achievements of AlphaGo, I think, is that it can reasonably quickly select moves for its playouts that are actually pretty good.

The second is more debatable. But, e.g., AlphaGo selects and evaluates moves using neural networks trained on a large amount of high-quality play, and the effect of this is that given a position it can quickly "see" how good it thinks the position is and what moves might be effective, without doing any searching, as a result of feeding the position through a big neural network that does some mysterious calculation we don't understand well. Which is, at that level of abstraction, pretty similar to what you might say about a human go player.

Whether any of this has any bearing on more general artificial intelligence is an entirely different question, which I will not attempt to get into.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#166
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[Citation needed.] I for one did not say to not worry, and I bet $1500 vs. $2250 on Sedol winning the match before getting cold feet and arbing my outstanding bets down to $400 vs. $700.

Why does Teodolfo even need a citation for that? Are you really suggesting that there is no group of people who believe AI is not a threat to worry about, and believed that AlphaGo would win?

I'm sure there's someone on the planet. Which is a very different state of affairs from the one that would obtain if a well-known AI researcher had, say, made a $1500 public bet on AlphaGo winning, while also loudly declaring that worrying about AGI was like worrying about overpopulation on Mars, in the company of other researchers declaring similar combined expectations.

What actually happened was the reverse of that; AI moved faster than I publicly bet a large sum of money on it moving, and I was already worried before then.

I'm not aware of the reverse-reverse having happened.

If you're claiming something as a successful advance prediction to bolster belief in a general model, it's fair play to ask for a record of that advance prediction.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#167
post #61
post #12

The thing that was supposed to take at least 10 years happened. Only last month people were still saying that no way AlphaGo will beat the champion and that it will be crushed. Today everybody will have seen it coming and say that it was normal. Yet people will still tell that worrying about AI taking over is like worrying about overpopulation on Mars, and that this is a problem at least 50 years out.

Highly optimised single-function algorithms like this are impressive stuff and can lead to useful tools, but that's it. This gets us no closer to strong AI than a tic tac toe program. Until we have systems that can tackle a wide range of fundamentally different problems and independently adapt strategies for dealing with one class of problems to deal with other classes of problems, systems like Alphago will remain on…

I don't think anyone's claiming that AlphaGo is an AGI in and of itself, just that it's a significant step towards one. There's still a lot to go before we can toss a standardized piece of hardware+code into an arbitrary situation and have it 'just figure it out'.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Infinite state/belief/world space. Infinite action space. It's not so much that there aren't rules (there are - physics), it's that the complexity of the full set of rules is exponential or super-exponential.

You can do math with continuous and infinite dimensional spaces.

And? This does not address my argument that the complexity is beyond-combinatorially explosive (infinite spaces). I'm not talking about the space of possible board states. I'm talking about merely the set of all possible actions.

EDIT: clarified my language to address below reply.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#169
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[Citation needed.] I for one did not say to not worry, and I bet $1500 vs. $2250 on Sedol winning the match before getting cold feet and arbing my outstanding bets down to $400 vs. $700.

Why does Teodolfo even need a citation for that? Are you really suggesting that there is no group of people who believe AI is not a threat to worry about, and believed that AlphaGo would win?

@Eliezer, but you might still win the bet, this was just the first match.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#170
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of the people saying not to worry ALSO predicted AlphaGo. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[Citation needed.] I for one did not say to not worry, and I bet $1500 vs. $2250 on Sedol winning the match before getting cold feet and arbing my outstanding bets down to $400 vs. $700.

You are not a counterexample to Teodolfo's claim, which was about people who did say not to worry.

[EDITED to add:] Oh, I see, your point is that it looks like AlphaGo is doing better than an "AI moves fast" advocate expected, rather than (per Teodolfo) no better than some "AI moves slowly" advocates expected. Fair enough.

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