If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
haakonsk.blogg.no
If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
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Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#2There's a whole profession of people whose job it is to predict this called actuaries. They disagree with your conclusion.
Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#3Life expectancy has been increasing by ever smaller amounts in the past decades. I am hopefully that a lot of new technologies could help buck that trend, but so far the trends don't support the author's hypothesis.
Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#4I don't mean to be a pessimist but this entire article boils down to describing Moore's law, and saying that medical research will advance quickly because it uses computers as well.
Seems a little shoddy.
Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#5I'd like to believe you, but what kills people is not their age, today it's mostly cancer and heart disease. While I'd hope we'll make progress, I doubt those 2 will be just gone in 30 years.
Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#6I don't mean to be a pessimist but this entire article boils down to describing Moore's law, and saying that medical research will advance quickly because it uses computers as well. Seems a little shoddy.
Well, to play devil's advocate for a moment… if actuaries did agree they wouldn't publicise it as an increased expectation of health is would benefit them financially. If actuaries expected people to live less time they'd be keen to increase rates and advertise it. If they seriously expected people to stop dying then the estimated value of life insurance policies would drop to zero.
Personally, I think it's more than a little unlikely that we're the last generation to know death.
Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#7If I recall correctly China has reached the escape velocity at some point in the sixties, gaining more than one year of life expectancy every passing year. The even harder part is to sustain this for long period of times.
Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#8What can you say? I really hope this will be the case. I want to live 1000 years and preferably even longer.
Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#9"The latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it is defined as The Maes-Garreau Point. The period equals to n-1 of the person’s life expectancy.
This suggests a law:
Maes-Garreau Law: Most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes-Garreau Point."
Re: If you're alive in 30 years you might be in 1000 years too
#10Probably off by a factor of 10. Very few people work in science doing research. The economy doesn't support enough people doing research to think we're going to make that kind of breakthrough within 30 years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/us-pu...