Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kurzweil also claims, as the capstone final paragraph in this piece, that human life expectancy is on an exponential curve, which is false. Not just a little wrong, it's all the way wrong, and intentionally misleading, there's no possible way he doesn't know it's false. It's very easy to check the basic facts: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy . Lifespan for people who live past 20 (discounting infant m…
I agree that the claim that lifespan is on an exponential curve is bogus. Modern medicine basically extended extremal lifespan up to the maximum attainable without fixing the underlying causes of aging and then stopped. There is for example some research that shows that the oldest woman's blood was derived from just two stem cells.[1] We currently don't have the technology to fix problems like that I disagree however…
Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
121–130 of 147 posts
Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you are understating the improvements in adult life expectancy. 1000 years ago, the very wealthy (the aristocrats) were getting to their 60s. The population wasn't. The improvements have mostly come from violence reduction and public health and dealing with disease though, I agree that those things aren't really part of a life extension technology trajectory.
I think you misunderstand my point. If you take away all early mortality factors, lifespan is long, and always has been. Separating the burgeoisie is actually an important piece of this argument, and it reinforces what I'm saying. Healthy adults that don't die of diseases or violence often lived as long as healthy adults today. Aristocrats a thousand years ago, on average lived to 65, but bunches of them made it to 8…
Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree that the claim that lifespan is on an exponential curve is bogus. Modern medicine basically extended extremal lifespan up to the maximum attainable without fixing the underlying causes of aging and then stopped. There is for example some research that shows that the oldest woman's blood was derived from just two stem cells.[1] We currently don't have the technology to fix problems like that I disagree however…
The tech you're talking about can't do anything for the living, it only has potential for the unborn. Either way, there is exactly zero evidence that it's already happening. Kurzweil's claim is pure fantasy.
Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you misunderstand my point. If you take away all early mortality factors, lifespan is long, and always has been. Separating the burgeoisie is actually an important piece of this argument, and it reinforces what I'm saying. Healthy adults that don't die of diseases or violence often lived as long as healthy adults today. Aristocrats a thousand years ago, on average lived to 65, but bunches of them made it to 8…
I just didn't read carefully enough (missed that you were mostly speaking of potential life span).
"Longevity" is the term in the social sciences for average age at death for only people that die of old age. Kurzweil used that word, he said "In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now we’re adding almost a half a year every year."
Life expectancy increased. Longevity did not. It's somewhat common to confuse them, so he could be forgiven for a mistake, except that it wasn't a mistake, he knows the difference, and his graph is evidence. That he included numbers from the 1920s and then skipped to 2000, is impossible to do accidentally, and if you include 1940-1990, you'd see lifespan flatlines. But then he'd have to admit neither life expectancy nor longevity are on exponential growth curves. They're not linear or even sublinear either. Longevity has always been flat, and lifespan has historical dips and bumps.
Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#125Samsung can try to sell me 100TB SSD, and Ill decline thanks. Their EVO drives suffer from read degradation slowly over long periods of time. See EVO 840, after about a year it was down to 20MiB/s of continuous read speed. An SSD they call that thing. They refused warranty and released a "Speed up flash warez tool now.exe" as help, which all it did was move the data around on the SSD in the background so as to keep u…
Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just didn't read carefully enough (missed that you were mostly speaking of potential life span).
All good, my beef is with Kurzweil's unscientific intentional misuse of data. "Longevity" is the term in the social sciences for average age at death for only people that die of old age. Kurzweil used that word, he said "In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now we’re adding almost a half a year every year.…
Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#127Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was shocked when 200GB drives were called drivezilla and cost $400.
And I was shocked when Seagate announced a 8TB HDD for $200..
How many millions of pixels are on my two LCD screens, and they are each individually controllable and none have failed in 8 years?
Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#129Why SAS and not NVMe? You can buy all NVMe enclosures/servers now. Is this solely aimed at replacing drives in existing enclosures? Not much good there as most of them will be SAS6. They'll still work, but not nearly as fast as SAS12 nor NVMe.
NVMe likely cannot scale to thousands of attached drives simultaneously due to limitations of PCI-E while SAS can. Scaling to thousands of attached disks was the motivation for QEMU's virtio-scsi because virtio-blk's 1 block device per PCI-E device meant that virtual machines using virtio-bulk could not scale past 32 drives. nVMe's 1 drive per PCI l-E device model should suffer from the same limitation. Similarly, SA…
NVMe scales just fine. As for the livelihood of those selling these storage appliances, well check out NetApp stock price lately.
Also,I wouldn't want to run thousands of these SAS drives in today's storage appliances. Even with high performance, the control plane and rebuild/rebalance stuff would be a nightmare. Trying to imagine a 50 node Isilon cluster with these things... not pretty.
Re: Samsung ships the world's highest capacity SSD, with 15TB of storage
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
The tech you're talking about can't do anything for the living, it only has potential for the unborn. Either way, there is exactly zero evidence that it's already happening. Kurzweil's claim is pure fantasy.
This discussion is becoming way to off-topic here. But I was convinced by Aubrey de Grey's arguments, perhaps you will be too. He is easy enough to Google.
The second thing I got was this: http://www2.technologyreview.com/sens/docs/estepetal.pdf
The tl;dr summary is:
However, given the recent successes and highly emotional nature of life extension research, Aubrey de Grey is not the first, nor will he be the last, to promote a hopelessly insufficient but ably camouflaged pipe-dream to the hopeful many. With this in mind, we hope our list provides a general line of demarcation between increasingly sophisticated life extension pretense, and real science and engineering, so that we can focus honestly on the significant challenges before us.