In the past few months I had the opportunity to meet some very accomplished, respected people. It made me simultaneously depressed and amazed. Depressed how limited human beings actually are - the smartest people in the world actually aren't that different from you or I. Amazed how much we were able to accomplish as a race in a relatively short time span, despite how incredibly limited we are.
No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
21–30 of 84 posts
Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#22Talking about shit don't know you don't know without referencing Rumsfeld's "The Unknown" almost feels like plagiarism.
You can't plagiarize what you don't know you don't know about...
Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#23Sometimes, in conversations with others, I hear them say with complete confidence stuff that I know is total crap. It's like I just can't get over how absolutely wrong they are and yet how absolutely right they believe they are. So I start wondering how many times I do exactly the same thing. I mean, how can I know what I don't know? How much is there? How do I even know if something I really believe is true or not?…
We always operate with imperfect knowledge. So we must make decisions based on probable outcomes. Is the child more likely to be better off if not hit by the car? Since the chance of death is high, then yes.
You also have to factor out things that appear on both sides of the equation. Any of the possible positive things you have prevented that also could happen had you intervened are irrelevant to the decision.
We never have perfect knowledge, but we must act anyway. The alternative is to be frozen and do nothing, ever.
Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#24There is a meta-problem here: we can't really know how big that red slice of the pie - the "don't know what you don't know" slice - really is. I think he captured the essence of the learning process correctly though, the "know what you don't know" slice just keeps getting bigger as you get older, thus the oft-cited expression, "the older you get, the less you know".
Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#25Confucius said it well: "To know what you do not know is the best."
Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#26Sometimes, in conversations with others, I hear them say with complete confidence stuff that I know is total crap. It's like I just can't get over how absolutely wrong they are and yet how absolutely right they believe they are. So I start wondering how many times I do exactly the same thing. I mean, how can I know what I don't know? How much is there? How do I even know if something I really believe is true or not?…
"So I start wondering how many times I do exactly the same thing."
Not so many times. People who fall into your description do know they are BSing, what they don't know is some people actually know they are doing so. I have seen a few of these who actually know their words are total crap, know that everyone doubts them, put keep going with a straight face. They are also the kind that usually get promotions and pay raises.
Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#27Sometimes, in conversations with others, I hear them say with complete confidence stuff that I know is total crap. It's like I just can't get over how absolutely wrong they are and yet how absolutely right they believe they are. So I start wondering how many times I do exactly the same thing. I mean, how can I know what I don't know? How much is there? How do I even know if something I really believe is true or not?…
I haven't read the article, yet, but in response to your comment, I am reminded of how, often, people are encouraged to be and rewarded for being "certain". AKA "assertive". Frequently, when I qualify the knowledge I'm sharing with comments about my level of certainty in it and/or its sources, I'm criticized for being some combination of "too verbose", "uncertain", "confusing" (even though, when people actually pay a…
the pressure is not to ignore but to reduce that complexity. People who ask you questions expect that from you, the provider of information. They expect you to reduce that complexity, and if you are not doing your job, meaning you give them too much information, they will be unhappy. Its not that they don't want to know, but why do they need you if you cannot reduce the complexity for them, i guess this is what most people are getting paid for - for reducing complexity for other people.
Someone who have read C. Shannon may add something about entropy etc, but i know i don't know information theory, even though i suspect it is relevant to what i just said
Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#28Reminds me of the quote from Rumsfeld.
Reformatted by http://www.slate.com/id/2081042/
The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#29Sometimes, in conversations with others, I hear them say with complete confidence stuff that I know is total crap. It's like I just can't get over how absolutely wrong they are and yet how absolutely right they believe they are. So I start wondering how many times I do exactly the same thing. I mean, how can I know what I don't know? How much is there? How do I even know if something I really believe is true or not?…
Right or wrong, NOT acting is often a far worse sin. Do you live your life in hesitation, questioning your every move? The silver lining is that everyone is as equally wrong as you. The world rewards those who cause motion, who act. Energy excites. It is also interesting to consider that you might be wrong about how wrong somebody is. What if you are both right, that you have not considered their issue in a context t…
> The world rewards those who cause motion, who act.
I hate to bring Godwin into this, but Hitler acted/caused motion, so did Stalin, so do a lot of bad people. Did the world really reward them?
Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
I haven't read the article, yet, but in response to your comment, I am reminded of how, often, people are encouraged to be and rewarded for being "certain". AKA "assertive". Frequently, when I qualify the knowledge I'm sharing with comments about my level of certainty in it and/or its sources, I'm criticized for being some combination of "too verbose", "uncertain", "confusing" (even though, when people actually pay a…
the pressure is not to ignore but to reduce that complexity. People who ask you questions expect that from you, the provider of information. They expect you to reduce that complexity, and if you are not doing your job, meaning you give them too much information, they will be unhappy. Its not that they don't want to know, but why do they need you if you cannot reduce the complexity for them, i guess this is what most…
I've had clients ask me a question and say, "I don't want to know how, just if it is possible?" and I suppose because I think they think it is really hard, I just tell them how to do it, it's like 2 clicks.
But then half an hour later they ask me the same question the same way and so I just say, 'Yes.' and start answering like that, yes, no, yes, no, yes, yes... and they tend to like that better.