Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people • Hacker News Board

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#151

Post by ansible » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 5:48 PM UTC

Grishnakh wrote: post #138

To add to my prior comment, it seems like expending military resources to retake this area is a waste, since the citizens there support ISIS. Instead of getting soldiers killed fighting to "liberate" people who probably don't want to be liberated, maybe they should have just dropped a bunch of leaflets on Mosul, explaining that the dam isn't being maintained under ISIS control, and without maintenance will fail in a…

So if they want to avoid this, it's up to them to rise up and revolt against ISIS. If they don't, oh well. If you're not willing to fight for your own survival and freedom, then maybe you don't deserve it, and you really have no right to expect others to do the dirty work for you and hand you these things on a silver platter.

And these people back in 2003 were asking for the USA-led coalition to invade their own country, topple the government, wreck the country's infrastructure, and leave a power-vacuum in its place? A vacuum filled in by local warlords and ethnic-cleansing militias?

I dispute the idea that we in the West have no responsibility here to help.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#152

Post by kzhahou » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 5:48 PM UTC

Grishnakh wrote: post #143

stellar678 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you seriously believe that an organization known for publicly beheading people, imposing arbitrary violent pseudo-Islamic rule, cultural genocide, etc... is supported by a significant part of the population of the territory they took over? The answer is - no, they are not basically supporters of ISIS. A few certainly are, but not many. They're people trapped under the tyrannical rule of strongmen who came to power…

They may or may not have the government they want , but they certainly have the government they deserve . Every nation of people does. If you're not willing to stand up and fight when a tiny number of people is oppressing you, then why do you deserve anything better? Who else is supposed to liberate you? Do you think that you're entitled to having a bunch of foreigners come risk their lives to liberate you from your…

At some point, a government will have an insurmountable military advantage, against which any resistance by its population is futile.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#153

Post by dang » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 5:51 PM UTC

Grishnakh wrote: post #145

seren wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every nation gets the government it deserves. This is a somewhat radical stance. When an armed group seizes the control of a city, the citizens don't always have the ability to fight back. There are plenty of people who are risking their lives and have lost it in ISIS control territory, telling them they "deserved" it is really rash. Let's reverse the point of view and let's take 1M of Americans. Do you think I wil…

Do I think you'll find 1M people in America who support Obama's administration? Um, yes... He was elected by about half the population, after all. I can easily find 1M people who still prefer to have him as President. Heck, right now with our current frontrunners, there's people who'd like to have another 4 or 8 years of Obama rather than Trump or Hillary. Now with Mosul, we're talking about 1M people. That's far, fa…

Commenters are required to post civilly and substantively, or not at all. It's bad enough that you are uncivil to your fellow users, and worse that you start religious flamewars. But blaming a million people for their own prospective drowning because you say they're Isis supporters (a ridiculous claim about a group known to terrorize the populations it rules over), and therefore have it coming to them, is far outside any civil discourse, even about politics. If you do it again you will forfeit the right to post here.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#154

Post by TallGuyShort » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 5:54 PM UTC

zanny wrote: post #110

TallGuyShort wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They considered an attack that would have killed ~1M people, presumably mainly civilians? sigh smh

It isn't just about loss of life, the dam constitutes a good chunk of Iraq's power generation. It is still a strategic military target.

I'll concede the point that the military correctly considers everything to understand tradeoffs in advance of the time when a fast decision needs to be made. But to quote Pvt. Ruiz in Tour of Duty, "People are strategic".

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#155

Post by ArkyBeagle » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 5:58 PM UTC

jksmith wrote: post #117

jamesfe wrote: post #106

I was a Marine in Iraq from 06-09. We constantly built plans for the inevitable demise of this dam. Mostly just estimates of how screwed people would be. I'm surprised it's not blown yet, I was constantly worried someone would bomb it somehow, but 7 years later, it's still standing, so I'm unsure about any estimates given now - the Iraqis were fairly liberal in their estimates in 2006 (it'll fall by 2007) and the sam…

Surprised that some big infrastructure company like Halli or Bechtel didn't see an opportunity to scheme some business from this.

Some of those guys were severely burned by the Iraqi Adventure. SFAIK, Halli divested of Brown-Root.

Big Engineering like that might as well be politics. And this makes me think of the St. Francis Dam.

"It's Chinatown, Jake."

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#156

Post by TallGuyShort » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 5:59 PM UTC

knowaveragejoe wrote: post #131

arethuza wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most major militaries have considered options that are orders of magnitude worse.

Not most, all. Again, the concept that "war is hell" doesn't seem to hit home for some people.

It's hell because of stuff like this. What doesn't seem to hit home for some people is that maybe your country isn't always "the good guys", and seriously considering a plan like this (beyond investigating what would happen so you can make the right decision when things start happening quickly) is precisely what makes you the bad guy.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#157

Post by ArkyBeagle » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 6:01 PM UTC

jrockway wrote: post #36

ajuc wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fix seems easy - do cut the ribbon in such cases.

That was the thought that went through my mind when I first watched that piece. I think I'm unusually excited by incremental improvement and routine maintenance though.

Me too. There is something wrong with us. :)

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#158

Post by ArkyBeagle » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 6:02 PM UTC

digi_owl wrote: post #32

jrockway wrote: post #12

John Oliver did a pretty good piece on infrastructure: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wpzvaqypav8 No politician gets to cut a ribbon with a giant pair of scissors when they fund routine maintenance. So why bother.

You also get this with corporations, as new stuff is filed as an investment while maintenance is under expenses.

Accounting practices make everything bizarre.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#159

Post by orblivion » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 6:03 PM UTC

knowaveragejoe wrote: post #95

TallGuyShort wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They considered an attack that would have killed ~1M people, presumably mainly civilians? sigh smh

To play devil's advocate here, any competent military would consider possibilities like this. "War is hell" is said so often these days as to be blasé, but it really is true.

How is "War is hell" always used an excuse for everything? It only makes sense if the alternative is a worse hell. Otherwise it seems like a great reason not to do something like this.

People seem to act as if it means that you can call something "war" and suspend all ethics. Maybe if I feel like punching someone in the face, I could say "Hey man, getting punched in the face is hell. What are you gonna do?"

Maybe that's the blasé part of it that you were referring to.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#160

Post by ArkyBeagle » Thu, Mar 03, 2016, 6:03 PM UTC

rwallace wrote: post #13

bjackman wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember that the sluice gates are seized. Obviously they should still drain it but it's not as simple as making the call.

Would it suffice to just take a stick of dynamite to one of the seized gates?

I'm sure it can be done safely, but a stick of dynamite probably isn't the way.