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After the Gold Rush

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Re: After the Gold Rush

#101

Post by lkrubner »

willholloway wrote: post #51

There is truth here, but remember that the age of the intelligent networked machine is just beginning. Look at the YC classes. They are very different from 2005. You can't get rich making a site like reddit today. YC is going international, with X for Y country businesses. I was talking to a friend with a startup in Indonesia. In Asia its like 1998. I think we are just at the end of the easy social/mobile revolution…

"the age of the intelligent networked machine is just beginning"

This sounds like pure denial. You don't want to face a painful truth, so you create a rationalization. But your sentence could be applied to dozens of other maturing industries, and your sentence would be wrong in every case:

In the 1880s: "There are thousands of oil reserves that no one has discovered yet, therefore the field remains wide open to innovators who want to take a risk on a new field."

And yet, after 1880s, the industry consolidated into a single behemoth. Even as late as the early 21st century, wildcatters could still make some money off a hard to reach patch, if prices were high enough. That didn't change the fact that all the big profits were held by a few near monopoly powers.

In the 1880s: "Much of the country can not yet be reached by train, so this industry is wide open to innovators who want to build new lines."

And yet the train industry consolidated after 1880.

1920s: "In automobiles, there are still vast innovations to be made to make brakes reliable, and someone needs to invent an automatic starter, since hand crakes are now dangerous, given the growing size of the engines. And an automatic transmission would be an amazing breakthrough, if anyone can figure out how to do it. The space is wide open for innovators who can solve any of the many problems that remain in the auto industry."

But the auto industry consolidated from that point forward.

In the 1980s: "The CPU is a new idea and the path forward for processors is still wide open to innovation."

And yet, Motorola was founded in 1928, Digital Equipment Corporation in 1957, Intel in 1968 and AMD was founded in 1969. The dominant powers for computer processors started a long time ago, the field consolidated when much was still unknown about the ideal strategy for processors.

There are industries that clearly have not yet emerged as stable entities with a clear path forward. Genetic engineering is an obvious one. But the software industry is clearly much more consolidated than it was in the past.

Re: After the Gold Rush

#102

Post by davemel37 »

vonklaus wrote: post #99
davemel37 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In Asia its like 1998 I can't speak such a broad generalization, but I noticed a learning curve/ trajectory of how people perceive opportunity online and the ideas they get excited about. It seems to depend when someone truly dove into internet and used it for everyday needs. I only have anecdotal evidence to this, but I really think that most follow are following the same trajectory/learning curve about opportunit…

I registered a domain last week directly from the registrar for $200 a year, which Is a lot for me. I know it is probably at least worth $1000 right now so I could get what I paid out of it at least. The point I am trying to make is that things adopt their real value, domains for an analogy are like real estate. SF/SV/NYC/LON are very desirable areas and it takes a long time to build out that infrastructure. It is a…

> I registered a domain last week directly from the registrar for $200 a year, which Is a lot for me. I know it is probably at least worth $1000

This is a perfect example of the trajectory I was referring to. Back in 2006 I believed I could register a name from a registrar and turn around and sell it for $1000. I even knew the economics of domaining. All the monetization strategies, sales tactics, valuation models, and based my belief on comparable sales, etc... (in other words, there was real value independent of two buyers competing for it.)

Yet, now I believe it is tantamount to a scam. Intrinsically, there is no value in a domain name that you can register today. The value is a complete fiction. Sure, there are tons of suckers today buying names they shouldn't, taken in by the shining lights, but this is my point. The domain names that have intrinsic value are long gone and have been for over a decade. (i.e 2 & 3 character, dictionary words, short pronounceable & brandable, names, places, etc...)

The only value in domain names today is if two people both desperately want the name. Too often it is the ego of someone who falls in love with a name they thought of for their brand and can't untangle their ego from reality and end up buying a name that they didn't need.

In a few years, their knowledge will catch up with mine today and they will perceive the opportunity the way I do. The same way in a few years I will have the experience to view things in a new light. I have to remind myself that someone exposed to domaining in the last 5 years doesn't have the benefit of learning what I learned over the last decade.

> domains for an analogy are like real estate.

I used to share this belief, but now I believe it is built on a fundamental misunderstanding.

Fundamentally, the only thing that would give a name value like real estate is if its easier to spell or remember. I.e. more accessible than another name. There really is no intrinsic difference between genius.com or smartbloke.com or owlsmarts.com All are short, easy to spell, easy to remember, easy to tell over to friends, and conjure up the same general idea. Yet, domain sellers will have you believe that genius.com is worth 10x-100x the value of the others. This is a pure fabrication.

Real estate and location have very real dynamics like accessibility, visibility, local demographics, parking, passing traffic, etc...

In the old days, a domain name with type in traffic would trade for 4-6 years revenue from parked traffic. That was comparable to real estate.

My point is simply that I can't understand how someone buys a great generic domain name for 5-6 figures like nerdy.com, when they can accomplish 95% of the same thing with any two dictionary words like, " nerdybird.com or nerdyduckling.com , etc...

Re: After the Gold Rush

#103

Post by EdwardDiego »

eru wrote: post #82
Periodic wrote: post #42

As someone who has worked at Google for a few years, I can't agree with the author's characterization of tech behemoths. While they have embraced the start-up mode of doing things for some new projects and are very free with their investing, their core business is everything you'd expect from a big business. I'm not sure it's possible to grow as large as Google, Apple or Facebook and remain agile. The product and org…

> [...] their core business is everything you'd expect from a big business. I have worked for a bank before coming to Google. The biggest difference, even in the core business, is that people speak up to management and call bullshit out. Memegen, for all its flaws, wouldn't survive one week in the open in a bank, and the perpetrators would be fired.

Sorry, could you please clarify? So is it in Google or in the bank that people speak up to management?

And what is the Memegen (and its flaws) you refer to? I google it and find a bunch of meme generators.

Re: After the Gold Rush

#104

Post by nullstring »

willholloway wrote: post #51

There is truth here, but remember that the age of the intelligent networked machine is just beginning. Look at the YC classes. They are very different from 2005. You can't get rich making a site like reddit today. YC is going international, with X for Y country businesses. I was talking to a friend with a startup in Indonesia. In Asia its like 1998. I think we are just at the end of the easy social/mobile revolution…

As my old man used to say: "if you don't like this game, play another one. There's plenty out there."

Re: After the Gold Rush

#105

Post by vonklaus »

davemel37 wrote: post #102
vonklaus wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I registered a domain last week directly from the registrar for $200 a year, which Is a lot for me. I know it is probably at least worth $1000 right now so I could get what I paid out of it at least. The point I am trying to make is that things adopt their real value, domains for an analogy are like real estate. SF/SV/NYC/LON are very desirable areas and it takes a long time to build out that infrastructure. It is a…

> I registered a domain last week directly from the registrar for $200 a year, which Is a lot for me. I know it is probably at least worth $1000 This is a perfect example of the trajectory I was referring to. Back in 2006 I believed I could register a name from a registrar and turn around and sell it for $1000. I even knew the economics of domaining. All the monetization strategies, sales tactics, valuation models, a…

I agree with you for the most part and it is possible-- quite likely even, that I am saying my example is the exception to the rule, but generally it is not the case. However, I am not domain squatting and the economnics aren't there to do that anyway, it was to illustrate the larger point that some domains, like real estate assets and "tech" companies are very valuable while apparently similar substitutes are not value and actually quite dangerous.

Currently, subtle differences make a big impact on metrics(growth, value, price) & the market is beginning to price these in. If you have seen the big short, it is a great movie, but the opening line is something like:

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

So try to check myself when I think about something like this, although it is obviously difficult. In this current framing, certainly one or both of us, is wrong and it is sort of a matter of timing.

I think we are in 1993 and you think(I don't want to put words in your mouth) are in 98'. Either way, if you were in 93 or 98 and knew what to look for you could have made a lot of money, and you yourself may have because you were fundamentally correct when others weren't.

So on balance, I think you are totally correct and I do not disagree with you. However, my estimation is that many people are making the mistake of grouping unrelated things together and drawin g a conclusion, when I think that in fact, the opposite could be true currently.

Re: After the Gold Rush

#106

Post by victorhooi »

EdwardDiego wrote: post #103
eru wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [...] their core business is everything you'd expect from a big business. I have worked for a bank before coming to Google. The biggest difference, even in the core business, is that people speak up to management and call bullshit out. Memegen, for all its flaws, wouldn't survive one week in the open in a bank, and the perpetrators would be fired.

Sorry, could you please clarify? So is it in Google or in the bank that people speak up to management? And what is the Memegen (and its flaws) you refer to? I google it and find a bunch of meme generators.

I believe he's saying that Google is more open, and people are willing to speak up (including to management).

That has been my experience so far as well.

I was also in banking and financial services before, and I found people tip toe around management a lot more.

And MemeGen is an internal thing, and I won't say anything beyond that. (I understand what the poster is saying, but I don't think it's necessary to understand his/her pointl

Re: After the Gold Rush

#107

Post by euyyn »

EdwardDiego wrote: post #103
eru wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [...] their core business is everything you'd expect from a big business. I have worked for a bank before coming to Google. The biggest difference, even in the core business, is that people speak up to management and call bullshit out. Memegen, for all its flaws, wouldn't survive one week in the open in a bank, and the perpetrators would be fired.

Sorry, could you please clarify? So is it in Google or in the bank that people speak up to management? And what is the Memegen (and its flaws) you refer to? I google it and find a bunch of meme generators.

He means in Google. For Memegen, search for 'google memegen'.

Re: After the Gold Rush

#108

Post by davemel37 »

vonklaus wrote: post #105
davemel37 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I registered a domain last week directly from the registrar for $200 a year, which Is a lot for me. I know it is probably at least worth $1000 This is a perfect example of the trajectory I was referring to. Back in 2006 I believed I could register a name from a registrar and turn around and sell it for $1000. I even knew the economics of domaining. All the monetization strategies, sales tactics, valuation models, a…

I agree with you for the most part and it is possible-- quite likely even, that I am saying my example is the exception to the rule, but generally it is not the case. However, I am not domain squatting and the economnics aren't there to do that anyway, it was to illustrate the larger point that some domains, like real estate assets and "tech" companies are very valuable while apparently similar substitutes are not va…

Fair enough.

Re: After the Gold Rush

#109

Post by lcpriest »

EdwardDiego wrote: post #103
eru wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [...] their core business is everything you'd expect from a big business. I have worked for a bank before coming to Google. The biggest difference, even in the core business, is that people speak up to management and call bullshit out. Memegen, for all its flaws, wouldn't survive one week in the open in a bank, and the perpetrators would be fired.

Sorry, could you please clarify? So is it in Google or in the bank that people speak up to management? And what is the Memegen (and its flaws) you refer to? I google it and find a bunch of meme generators.

http://thefw.com/take-a-peek-inside-googles-internal-meme-ge...

Re: After the Gold Rush

#110

Post by willholloway »

lkrubner wrote: post #101
willholloway wrote: post #51

There is truth here, but remember that the age of the intelligent networked machine is just beginning. Look at the YC classes. They are very different from 2005. You can't get rich making a site like reddit today. YC is going international, with X for Y country businesses. I was talking to a friend with a startup in Indonesia. In Asia its like 1998. I think we are just at the end of the easy social/mobile revolution…

"the age of the intelligent networked machine is just beginning" This sounds like pure denial. You don't want to face a painful truth, so you create a rationalization. But your sentence could be applied to dozens of other maturing industries, and your sentence would be wrong in every case: In the 1880s: "There are thousands of oil reserves that no one has discovered yet, therefore the field remains wide open to innov…

The train, the automobile, and the microprocessor were all harbingers of exponentially increasing wealth and opportunity. Each technology lowered the cost of starting and running businesses, as well as giant ancillary businesses and markets.

The microprocessor preceded the gold rush we're eulogizing here.

They all spawned brand new ecosystems that created entirely new opportunities for entrepreneurs to create wealth. The train even unified some nation states that didn't exist.

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