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This is the most depressing chart in the world

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Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#41

Post by npalli »

If you look at the underlying table [1], it looks like they will miss it again. Most importantly they keep forecasting China to grow at >6% in the short term. China is in a deep transition right now, 50% of their economy is in investment (building stuff mostly). This was fine in 2008-2011, but right now that has to stop, very quickly. They have run out of productive investments that make sense. Even if they grow at 0% they still need to find $6 Trillion of investment every year!, that's how lopsided their economy is. The transition to consumer and services will take time only because the hole from investment is so large ($6 Trillion/year). The fallout is that other economies that depend on Chinese investment will suffer lower growth as well. China and rest of world dependent on china make maybe 1/2 of the forecasted growth. I question how much will materialize.

[1] http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/pdf/0...

Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#42

Post by pizza234 »

coldtea wrote: post #12

Why should we expect or even want constant growth? Is current level of growth even sustainable? (regarding environment, lifestyle issues --stress, depression, etc.--, quality of production, time for people to adapt to new paradigms, etc)? How about less "growth" and better distribution, more quality, less rat racing?

Growth is intrinsic in the human condition and society; if there isn't growth, then there is some underlying problem.

I agree with the sentiment about distribution, quality, etc., but it's a completely separate domain, and I think it's crucial not to mix them.

Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#44

Post by explorigin »

anexprogrammer wrote: post #31
dozzie wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This scientific consensus already made several heavily wrong estimates. And mind you, we don't have a working, proven model of climate change. We only have some speculations based on some proxy variables, and those speculations tend to ignore most basic physics or statistics (e.g. discussing changes of temperature that are way below observational errors currently possible, or focus on marginal CO2 concentration, whil…

I would far rather we incorrectly rushed to decarbonise and replace with renewables than assume the science is wrong and have an oh fuck we're doomed moment in 30 or 40 years. I won't care, I'll probably be dead by then. My children would. Decarbonising would remove many other pollutants and particulates from the atmosphere, and should lead to health benefits like reduced asthma in cities.

> Decarbonising would remove many other pollutants and particulates from the atmosphere, and should lead to health benefits like reduced asthma in cities.

But it's not all benefit. In rushing to decarbonize, we use alternative energy sources. A lot of battery and solar technology uses heavy metals that break down and seep into the water supply when they are improperly discarded. There are no magic bullet answers, the only solution is a holistic one and so far, only the climate scientists have won the attention of the politicians. Validity arguments aside, it makes you wonder if there's an ulterior motive.

Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#45

Post by dozzie »

cel1ne wrote: post #37
dozzie wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This scientific consensus already made several heavily wrong estimates. And mind you, we don't have a working, proven model of climate change. We only have some speculations based on some proxy variables, and those speculations tend to ignore most basic physics or statistics (e.g. discussing changes of temperature that are way below observational errors currently possible, or focus on marginal CO2 concentration, whil…

So there are thousands of climate scientists which came, over and over again, to the same conclusion: that the extent of current heating is caused by co2 release, which is caused by coal-burning by mankind. Those have all made several mistakes and continue to make them and the 15 scientists or so who are of a different opinion are probably right? Is that what you are saying?

We had thousands of astrology and magic practicioners. It didn't make astrology or magic true in any way.

You know what makes modern physics true? Falsifiability and verifiability. You build a theory, make predictions, develop an experiment, and then conduct the experiment, multiple times. Climatology stops after the first two.

Granted, astronomy and cosmology operate in similar way to climatology, but we don't establish world-scale policies based on astronomy.

Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#46

Post by cookingrobot »

dmm wrote: post #27
coldtea wrote: post #12

Why should we expect or even want constant growth? Is current level of growth even sustainable? (regarding environment, lifestyle issues --stress, depression, etc.--, quality of production, time for people to adapt to new paradigms, etc)? How about less "growth" and better distribution, more quality, less rat racing?

In the absence of growth the only way for an individual to get more resources is to take it from someone else. Life becomes a zero-sum game. This is a qualitative change. The game stops being who can make the most pie to who can take the most.

It's better when things get cheaper, which is the opposite of growth.

Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#47

Post by Aeolos »

cel1ne wrote: post #37
dozzie wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This scientific consensus already made several heavily wrong estimates. And mind you, we don't have a working, proven model of climate change. We only have some speculations based on some proxy variables, and those speculations tend to ignore most basic physics or statistics (e.g. discussing changes of temperature that are way below observational errors currently possible, or focus on marginal CO2 concentration, whil…

So there are thousands of climate scientists which came, over and over again, to the same conclusion: that the extent of current heating is caused by co2 release, which is caused by coal-burning by mankind. Those have all made several mistakes and continue to make them and the 15 scientists or so who are of a different opinion are probably right? Is that what you are saying?

Some people have convinced themselves that climate change is not a problem. That's not based on scientific facts, but on superstitious beliefs ("it's a conspiracy", "we didn't do it", "there's nothing we can do about it anyway").

Study after study has showed that superstition cannot be overcome with facts. The more facts you present, the more they get stuck to their incorrect beliefs. It's depressing.

The only solution is to do what Elon Musk is doing: ignore the idiots and pursue what you believe is right.

Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#48

Post by baldfat »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #32
baldfat wrote: post #3

I have very little understanding about economics but I always am scared of large GDP growth because it seems like that is when we go into recession due to bubbles. 1980s led to the recession of the early 1990s. The mid 1990s growth became the 2007-2009 "Great Recession." So this shows growth and it is steady so I don't find this depressing. edited one word

> edited one word Dammit. Now I want to know what word that was and how many instances of it did you change. :(

I was stupid and read article on ecology and this.

EDIT was:

ecology -> economics

Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#49

Post by VLM »

coldtea wrote: post #12

Why should we expect or even want constant growth? Is current level of growth even sustainable? (regarding environment, lifestyle issues --stress, depression, etc.--, quality of production, time for people to adapt to new paradigms, etc)? How about less "growth" and better distribution, more quality, less rat racing?

I propose you're getting overly philosophical.

We live in a hyper-financialized economy. That means everything relies on (cheap) debt. A lot of debt repayment plans relied on "everything is awesome" as economic prediction, as a justification for the initial investment. What happens to all those financial plans when growth predictions impact reality like a bug hitting a windshield? That might be a little problem.

Top to bottom, from the worlds largest alternative oil source projects down to housing bubble mortgages and high credit card balances. Oh no fears the predictions show high growth into perpetuity that'll take care of everything eventually. Until it doesn't. Whoops.

There is also the ongoing implication of lie to me once shame on you, lie to me twice (or five times in this example) shame on me. So you can make deals based on lies about the future one time, two times, three times. But its getting to the point that future predictions are now assumed to be lies, and that has major effects on current deal making. Whats the effect on your commission today for selling a loan balance based on now-2% vs a couple years ago selling a much higher loan balance based on now+3%? Can you even sell loans now? Can a hyperfinancialized economy survive a debt market freeze up? A lot of players won't. Get the printing presses fired up for the inevitable bailouts...

Re: This is the most depressing chart in the world

#50

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

baldfat wrote: post #48
YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> edited one word Dammit. Now I want to know what word that was and how many instances of it did you change. :(

I was stupid and read article on ecology and this. EDIT was: ecology -> economics

Thanks! And sorry :)
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