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Will superintelligence emerge on the Web?

kurzweilai.net

21–26 of 26 posts

Re: Will superintelligence emerge on the Web?

#21
post #2

No.

This is exactly the kind of philosophical question that pg talked about in "How to do Philosophy" that breaks down because of the near impossibility of objectively defining the terms involved, or even coming to a solid consensus on their definition.

Obviously, the key term here is "awareness". We "know" we are aware because . . . uh, because we think therefore we are, I suppose. Do our cells know about our awareness beyond their genetic programming to do what they do to contribute to it? Do we go out of our way to make our cells 'aware' of our super-awareness?

My point is that way down the road when there are exponentially more sensors, programs, humans, and other 'resources' connected to the web, how would we even know that it had become . . . something more? It's probably never, ever going to take over some terminal and say "Hello there, Dave". And we may never know, because just as you can't find consciousness in the brain, you won't be able to find it in the Net. It would be the ghost in the machine, that had little interest in its component pieces.

For those, myself included, who say this or that will 'never' happen, I'd like to add a quote from Freemon Dyson, talking about a multi-disciplinary conference where the future of human evolution was discussed: "When the physicists started talking about the really long term, [the others'] eyes glazed over."

Re: Will superintelligence emerge on the Web?

#23
post #13

The problem with technology people making predictions about intelligence is they don't understand the most relevant field: epistemology. In particular, you can't make very good predictions about AI before you have a very good understanding of how learning and knowledge creation works. You can tell someone doesn't know these things when they never bring it up, despite it being critical to their claims. One way this is…

> The problem with technology people making predictions about intelligence is they don't understand the most relevant field: epistemology.

How do you know that you know that? ;-)

Re: Will superintelligence emerge on the Web?

#25
I think it will... and I think it will blind-side the general populace when we get there.

I actually think our hardware is already sufficient for this (obviously not one computer, but a large network of them). I think it's mostly a software problem at this point. I think a new generation of database products in the works (with more flexible, dynamic objects) and the recent (last decade) appreciation for statistical pattern recognition will take us a long way. I think we are not much more than inefficient, redundant, statistical processing systems.

Re: Will superintelligence emerge on the Web?

#26
post #23
post #13

The problem with technology people making predictions about intelligence is they don't understand the most relevant field: epistemology. In particular, you can't make very good predictions about AI before you have a very good understanding of how learning and knowledge creation works. You can tell someone doesn't know these things when they never bring it up, despite it being critical to their claims. One way this is…

> The problem with technology people making predictions about intelligence is they don't understand the most relevant field: epistemology. How do you know that you know that? ;-)

heh. that is another reason it's important to be an expert on the subject: the mainstream view is very confused.

the whole knowledge is justified, true belief thing is such a mess. they've known induction doesn't work for ages, but haven't replaced it. good answers to these things, on the other hand, are largely ignored. (hint: Popper)

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