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Why Don't People Manage Debt Better?

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Re: Why Don't People Manage Debt Better?

#361
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have literally have people tell me that this is still rationality because it's the rational thing "for them". Like, the weirdest one was a cognitive psychology doctoral student. I mean, okay, if you can redefine rationality to be completely subjective, then sure, rationality is flargikriggendurf.

In addition to the other fine replies, let me point out that "humans are irrational" is the negation of a very small point. It allows us to think we know something, when in fact what that statement tells us is only that we don't know something about human behavior. It is logically much like saying "Humans are not 7-year-old bulldogs named Fido living in New Jersey on the second floor of a shared house." It's a true s…

>This is also while ritual denunciations of "homo economicus" are really quite sophomoric...

Admittedly, this is because "homo economicus" is sophomoric in the first place: it proposes an actor who has no computational or informational bounds and sees the world only in terms of a single real-valued variable called "utility", which is generally constrained only to be any monotonic, continuous function of their monetary net worth. This actor then optimizes expected utility with no regards to modeling causal structure or to which observables are actually ergodic.

No such creature ever has, or in fact ever can, exist in the real world. In limited domains where ergodicity holds, computational needs are few, and small sample sizes can yield very good inferences, we can do thought experiments about what such a creature would do, and act according to those if we please. But holding that such behavior is the normatively correct way to act when it's actually impossible is the kind of religious thinking one gets when composing "normative theories" without experimental basis.

Re: Why Don't People Manage Debt Better?

#362
post #241
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been meaning to read that. Did you end up getting anything practical out of it?

there are a lot of small near-practical applications, but it all really revolves around trying to be cognizant that our initial impressions/estimates vary wildly and are biased. The book spends the entire time giving you countless examples to hammer the point home. My favorite example from the book (via wikipedia) Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she…

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Re: Why Don't People Manage Debt Better?

#363
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There still isn't a TV on the market (that I know of) that is obsolete after a year, not even five years. As long as the inputs (hdmi, dvi, RCA) work then the TV is not obsolete. It may not have the newest features (4k, "smart" connectivity) but it is every bit as usable (and many of the smart features can be added with a ROKU, Apple TV or the like). Video and Films are my business and my TV is a nearly 5 year old LG…

While I agree that TVs don't go obsolete after one year, obsolete doesn't mean "broken" or "no longer works", it just means that the item is outdated or outmoded and generally no longer used. Ball mice, for example, are obsolete but would still work if plugged into a computer.

Losing one function or even several doesn't automatically make something obsolete (outdated, outmoded and generally no longer used) if it's still functional for it's main purpose. Ball mice are obsolete mainly because no one is making mice that aren't optical/laser (AFAIK). A TV losing a smart function doesn't make that TV obsolete unless the person using the TV was relying heavily on the smart functions. And even then I wouldn't necessarily say that the TV was obsolete mainly because the smart functions on TV are used by a small percentage of consumers, typically less than 15%.

Re: Why Don't People Manage Debt Better?

#364
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this. If the utility of money is roughly logarithmic, then that would imply the most fair tax bracketing would be a logarithmic curve. An example would be the "logarithmic flat tax" I see mentioned sometimes - figure out how many times above the poverty rate you make, log-10 it, and multiply by some flat constant (they usually recommend 9 or 10). If you plug in a middle-class earner's revenue to th…

Logarithmic utility of money implies that the last X% of your income is worth the same amount of utility, regardless of what your income is: log(x) - log[(1 - r)x] = log(x) - log(1 - r) - log(x) = -log(1 - r). But "does the same harm to every person" is not necessarily the right definition of "fair" in the context of taxes, though.

Can you expand on that? What is x, what is r?

And you are saying that the last 5% of a millionaire's income has the same utility as the last 5% of a different person's income that makes 25k/year?

Re: Why Don't People Manage Debt Better?

#367
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving money, that can work. With a glad heart.

People won't accept gifts. Give a "loan" but treat it like a gift --never mention the balance ask for the repayments.

I tell them "Pay it forward". That way they can accept it and agree to pay it back - but sometime in the unspecified future.

Re: Why Don't People Manage Debt Better?

#368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm a "reformed" credit card user. I haven't borrowed for anything apart from the house in around 15 years. It's not a problem, and the kids don't miss out on having too much stuff either! I've never used a credit card, because people like you got to me before I was old enough to apply for one and warded me off, so thanks :) However, what's your experience with taking out that home loan? I'm worried that I might one…

If you can play the game to your rules, not theirs, having a single credit card can be ok: * Pay the entire balance every month, ideally by direct debit (they don't like doing this) * Ignore offers to increase credit limit * Actively reverse automatic credit increases. My card company tried ridiculously hard to talk me out of reducing my credit limit. This type of credit card customer is by far the minority (10% iirc…

> This type of credit card customer is by far the minority (10% iirc), and least welcome to the card companies. Their ideal customer has multiple cards and pays minimum balance every month.

A card user who pays their balance every month is still valuable to the card company though, as it draws fees on every transaction. Someone who uses their 1.5% cashback card to pay for EVERYTHING and puts a couple thousand a month on the card brings in some cash too, and the day they lose their job they might start racking up debt.

Re: Why Don't People Manage Debt Better?

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The old, and conveniently oft forgotten, advice applies: Never borrow against a depreciating asset. If you need to clear down you may have a problem. A job loss, recession, illness could all mean you want to clear the debt. Selling the now second hand TV is not going to clear the debt. Add in a few more debts justified thus and you have a bankruptcy or house loss on your hands. Perhaps you can guarantee you will not…

>I'm a "reformed" credit card user. I haven't borrowed for anything apart from the house in around 15 years. It's not a problem, and the kids don't miss out on having too much stuff either! I've never used a credit card, because people like you got to me before I was old enough to apply for one and warded me off, so thanks :) However, what's your experience with taking out that home loan? I'm worried that I might one…

You're a terrible person - why call me out for being wrong, then when I show you that you are wrong, just vanish? That's un-australian.
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