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Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

theatlantic.com

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Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#151

Post by gasull »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #150
gasull wrote: post #147

The militarism in the article is repulsive: U.S. military and intelligence officials should at the very least, and immediately, run some rigorous planning exercises to test different scenarios and potential actions aimed at reducing codependence and mitigating risk. Why? Why cannot we just leave them alone? Why do we have to invade every country whenever there is an opportunity to do so?

I think that quoted phrase may have been all about doing just that - retreating to non-Saudi air bases; getting out of the way of a Saudi conflict.

I don't think so. It talks about "rigorous planning exercises".

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#152

Post by JoeAltmaier »

gasull wrote: post #151
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that quoted phrase may have been all about doing just that - retreating to non-Saudi air bases; getting out of the way of a Saudi conflict.

I don't think so. It talks about " rigorous planning exercises ".

Exercises are anything from all-out wargames to moving cargo from one base to another.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#153

Post by tome »

s_q_b wrote: post #142
tome wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Saudi Arabia's government is in favor of the United States, but their wealthy citizens often fund non-state actors to attack Western targets. Can someone please (perhaps you if you're willing, s_q_b) help me clear this up once and for all? Is there sponsorship of terrorism and other anti-Western activities coming from the rulers of Saudi Arabia? I don't mean distant members of the royal family who are given control…

The summarize one piece of evidence, the 20th hijacker says he had support from the core Saudi Royal family, and listed specific individuals, along with a host of other financial evidence: ">Zacarias Moussaoui, a convicted 9/11 co-conspirator, says members of Saudi Arabia’s royal family helped finance al Qaeda in the years just prior to the 2001 terrorist attacks..." When facing deposition, Moussaoui named specific n…

But then I don't understand what you mean by "Saudi Arabia's government is in favor of the United States".

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#154

Post by hartpuff »

bedhead wrote: post #115
hartpuff wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The CIA and/or NSA very likely knew that the 9/11 terrorists were in the US, learning to fly airliners. Has there ever been an explanation why the hijackers risked conspicuously attending flight schools under the noses of the US authorities, rather than, say, absolutely any other country in the world ?

Terrorists tend to be stupid. Honestly. Look at Richard Reid, the shoe bomber. The guy goes to the airplane bathroom to prepare his shoe bomb, then he returns to his seat, covers himself with a blanket, and tries to detonate the bomb by lighting the fuse with matches. People next to him notice this easily and maul him. Plot over. So, ummm, why not just detonate the thing while locked in the bathroom??? The guys in fl…

Yeah, I've always thought it was insane that for an operation as huge as 9/11 they'd do something as risky as train in the US itself. Rather than venture into conspiracy land (nothing against conspiracies in general; they're often entertaining and, depending on the subject and degree, are not necessarily invalid), I wondered if there were plausible explanations for it.

I can buy the idea that they either didn't think the possible risks through, or just believed they could get away with it long enough to pull off the attack. And also that they may have thought they could learn more about US aviation policy or protocol in the US than elsewhere.

I was sceptical about it being because there are more flight schools in the US, because AIUI they only acquired limited training anyway, which they could have received anywhere. But whatever competence and training they ended up with, they probably at least intended to get as much as possible, and train in bigger, more appropriate aircraft, so that is possibly a factor too.

Thanks everyone for the replies.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#155

Post by crdoconnor »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #28

And Russia. In the harsh world of realpolitik no one cares if Venezuela falls apart, except for the Venezuelans. If Russia falls apart it's a serious problem for everyone, because it won't fall apart quietly or peacefully.

The damage done by low oil prices to Russia has been way overstated in the west.

The lower value of their currency has actually caused them to engage in import substitution (something Saudi can't do because they basically don't have any local industries) and started to make Russian industry more competitive in export markets.

This is basically what China did to itself deliberately in order to turn itself into an exporting and manufacturing powerhouse.

Russia is still hurting but there's a big silver lining for them that doesn't exist for, say, Venezuela.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#156

Post by JoeAltmaier »

d883kd8 wrote: post #145
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a tangent: more countries named like that: Rhodesia. Bolivia. Colombia. Liechtenstein. Swaziland. Uzbekistan. Denmark. Russia and Belarus.

Today I learned, thanks. But I don't think any of those are named after the current leaders. What we have in Saudi Arabia is a group of people, (the Saud family) who managed to take personal power over everyone else in a particular region, and then wrapped that power in the mechanisms and trappings of a modern state. It's an interesting and unique situation.

Liechtenstein. And Saudi Arabia is named for a dead guy.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#157

Post by dang »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #28

And Russia. In the harsh world of realpolitik no one cares if Venezuela falls apart, except for the Venezuelans. If Russia falls apart it's a serious problem for everyone, because it won't fall apart quietly or peacefully.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11144040 and marked it off-topic.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#158

Post by dang »

justincormack wrote: post #20

The poster recommended listening to "their media" for a balanced view on Saudi Arabia, which is nonsense in a country without a free press. And also suggested that the alternative to Saudi Arabia was Iran. Looked like a typical paid commenter.

> Looked like a typical paid commenter.

Insinuations of astroturfing and shillage without evidence are not allowed on HN. An opposing opinion doesn't count as evidence.

We're strict about this because there's nothing more destructive of civility online than people yelling "shill" at each other. You didn't do that, but that's where the vector points.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11144024 and marked it off-topic.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#159

Post by crdoconnor »

rtpg wrote: post #51
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #28

And Russia. In the harsh world of realpolitik no one cares if Venezuela falls apart, except for the Venezuelans. If Russia falls apart it's a serious problem for everyone, because it won't fall apart quietly or peacefully.

Well the Soviet Union collapsed without a major world war right?

If a hardliner had been in charge instead of Gorbachev and Glasnost wasn't enacted it probably wouldn't have collapsed (or it would have collapsed a lot more messily).

We got lucky that it was him in charge rather than somebody else.

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