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Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

theatlantic.com

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Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#91
post #82
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ISIS is a true product of Salafism, and we must deal with it with full transparency. - Sheikh Adel al-Kalbani, former imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca

> former imam A refutation of Kalbani: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2wD5KSN-zI

That's hardly a refutation as the video fails to actually make an argument.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#92
post #45
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are nine pages redacted from the 9/11 report, because they were deemed too incendiary against an ally, Saudi Arabia. I want those pages.

The CIA and/or NSA very likely knew that the 9/11 terrorists were in the US, learning to fly airliners. Not long after 9/11, there were reports that Mossad agents (the "art students", as I recall) had been tailing the 9/11 terrorists. Almost all of whom were Saudis. But I've seen no credible reports that any of them knew what was planned. And yes, those pages might be very interesting.

The CIA most definitely knew and refused to share that information with the FBI.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2006/07/10/the-agent

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#93
post #67
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Salafism is a very complicated word to unpack. So yes, there are less radical elements who identify as Salafis, including the Muslim brotherhood. But although the meaning of Salafism as a historical word would take quite a bit to unpack, it's clearly referring to a particularly fast-growing form of fundamentalist Islam today. Now, as for the sermons... It is my experience that the Saudi's pray with one hand and dole…

> It is my experience that the Saudi's pray with one hand and dole out cash to terrorist groups with the other. That makes zero sense. Why would they fund the people calling for their destruction? What exactly is your "experience?" It's just more unfounded conjecture.

Saudi is a feudal monarchy. How many times did we see, in Western history, brothers, cousins and relatives of a feudal monarch endorsing this or that "troublemaking" religion just to stick it to their in-charge relative? Plenty.

Nation-states are not consistent monoliths with predictable and precise objectives; they are aggregated magmas of competing and often conflicting interests. This is why it is important to have open debate among parties, so that such conflicts can be dealt with in the open, through constant compromises, not in the dark with daggers and suicide bombers.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#94
post #22

I've worked a fair amount in Saudi Arabia, and yeah, even by (low) Gulf standards it's a deeply fucked-up place and definitely a ticking time bomb. A few things people don't realize until they've actually been there: - Not all Saudis are rich. Quite the opposite, there are destitute beggars on the streets of Riyadh. The women were the saddest side, kneeling by the roadside begging for alms in their all-enveloping pit…

All companies in Saudi are operated almost entirely by imported labor

Is this still true? I ask because when I was in grad school at the University of Arizona I taught technical writing to a fair number of Saudi (and Kuwaiti) engineering students. I don't know what happened to them after graduation, but I presume most went back to work in the oil companies. Maybe they ended up fulfilling the "Saudification" quota.

(That's a great post overall, by the way.)

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#95

The poster recommended listening to "their media" for a balanced view on Saudi Arabia, which is nonsense in a country without a free press. And also suggested that the alternative to Saudi Arabia was Iran. Looked like a typical paid commenter.

"their media" aren't going to give a balanced view of the country, but they're going to give you an idea of the mainstream attitudes there.

A very good analogy would be one way to gain at least a little insight into the relationship between the USA govt and Evangelical Christians would be to watch Fox News.

Usually cross cultural analogies are risky at best, but this one is surprisingly accurate. There exist religious groups who's relatives, followers, and sympathizers hold at least some of the positions in the government, although the religious groups in question are not technically officially a part of the government. There is an influence.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#96

The poster recommended listening to "their media" for a balanced view on Saudi Arabia, which is nonsense in a country without a free press. And also suggested that the alternative to Saudi Arabia was Iran. Looked like a typical paid commenter.

Yes, I did recommend listening to "their" media. However I did not mean listen to the news, Watch the music, culture, and other forms of media, to get a sense of the "extremism exporter" being portrayed in the article, just take a look at this network ( http://telfaz11.com/en/ ). I really do not understand the reasons behind your anger, is it because of 9/11? As I said before, the Saudis have suffered way more because of Al-Qaeda, and keep in mind that Al-Qaeda is the child of cold war strategies.

And no, I am not a paid commenter, I am a Saudi citizen who lives in Riyadh and is deeply insulted by all these reductions that are clearly made without any deep thoughts on the middle east.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#97
post #6

This article comes from someone who clearly doesn't understand Saudi Arabia. It keeps on portraying Saudi Arabia as an extremism exporter while it is a very moderate country, just turn on their media ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Broadcasting_Cente... ) and you will see a very different nation from what is portrayed here. Saudis have suffered a lot in the War on Terrorism, the number of Saudis who died…

>It keeps on portraying Saudi Arabia as an extremism exporter while it is a very moderate country

What is your definition of moderate? Moderate compared to what country?

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#99
post #58
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The NSA also had a tap on the Yemeni safe house where the attackers were calling to coordinate. The hijackers even stayed in Laurel, Maryland, from which you can literally see Alpha and Bravo. Yet the 9/11 commission only spent three visits and a paltry amount of time up at Fort Meade and NBP, anecdotally because the commute to the Fort is too long. Edit in reply: No, they never put the intelligence together. See her…

So did the NSA know what the attackers were going to do? I find it very hard to imagine that the NSA and/or CIA would have let the attacks happen, even to protect key assets and methods. Maybe they had compromised some Mossad communication channel. Or maybe they had a double agent. But what would have been worth the risk to DC and NYC?

Very much in the opinion space here...

To an extent, as with all big data systems, massive collection of data has both opportunities and risks. The risk in overcollection (e.g., the NSA type programs) is that you collect so much damn information that you are either behind in analyzing it or flat out never get there [1-2]. Combine that with (as others have noted) the lack of translators and you get what you got [3]. The old maxim* that not all data is information (DIKW) heavily applies here [4]. This whole phenomenon becomes especially problematic when you are spending all that time energy and money largely trying to predict 'black swan' events using what has happened before as what to look for in the future (e.g., the TSA as a whole or the NSA still focusing on cold war languages pre-9/11 [3]).

[1] http://www.zdnet.com/article/nsa-whistleblower-overwhelmed-w...

[2] http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/world/how-the-nsa-trie...

[3] http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/aug/31/lack-of-tran...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DIKW_Pyramid

Edit: *fixed typo of maximum to maxim

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#100
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CIA and/or NSA very likely knew that the 9/11 terrorists were in the US, learning to fly airliners. Not long after 9/11, there were reports that Mossad agents (the "art students", as I recall) had been tailing the 9/11 terrorists. Almost all of whom were Saudis. But I've seen no credible reports that any of them knew what was planned. And yes, those pages might be very interesting.

> The CIA and/or NSA very likely knew that the 9/11 terrorists were in the US, learning to fly airliners. Has there ever been an explanation why the hijackers risked conspicuously attending flight schools under the noses of the US authorities, rather than, say, absolutely any other country in the world ?

I would venture that the hijackers were just really bad at counter espionage?

You had organizations that had the signals but couldn't communicate, why is it anymore likely that the terrorists themselves were super geniuses?

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