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Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

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Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#41

Post by jpatokal »

ck2 wrote: post #21
raverbashing wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good, they bought the weapons, do they know how to use them? It's dangerous, sure, but I would not bet on it being effective in defending their interests

Saudi Arabia has plenty of soldiers, they even have female fighter pilots. The insanity is those jet fighter pilots are NOT ALLOW TO DRIVE. The whole country is a nightmare waiting to happen once there is an economic crunch. The elite will be fine but their equivalent of the "middle-class" is completely screwed. They already have baked-in religious fundamentalism and they will most certainly turn to that in numbers.…

Were they Saudis? I took taxis daily in Riyadh and I don't think I ever had a Saudi taxi driver, they were mostly Pakistanis or Yemenis with the odd Ethiopian.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#42

Post by adventured »

tristanj wrote: post #7

Saudi Arabia is not going to collapse anytime soon. The thesis (budget deficit of $98B budget leads to political instability and collapse) simply doesn't make sense when you look at their finances. Some facts: * Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, last year at only 1.6%. Their credit rating is A+ to AA; they can easily issue more debt. * Has $640B of assets overseas * Has $10 trillion…

Saudi reserves are now under $600 billion. They were $608 billion around January 1st [1], and they have been destroying $15 to $20 billion per month. Their deficit was $115b for 2015, and it's going to be drastically higher this year.

And that's pretending all $600 billion is available to be burned freely. Which is never the case in reality. They're so desperate at this point they're going to IPO Aramco and begin selling off state assets.

Their reserves will be completely gone in three years if oil stays at or below the $45-$50 range. That's assuming nothing else they're doing gets more expensive (bribing the populace, local war), and that they can actually use all of their reserves freely; both of which are dramatic assumptions.

The real problem is that they desperately need hundreds of billions of dollars on hand to bribe their domestic audience as necessary. Without that, risk of civil war or collapse goes up dramatically.

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/russia-set...

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#43

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

fit2rule wrote: post #17
tristanj wrote: post #7

Saudi Arabia is not going to collapse anytime soon. The thesis (budget deficit of $98B budget leads to political instability and collapse) simply doesn't make sense when you look at their finances. Some facts: * Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, last year at only 1.6%. Their credit rating is A+ to AA; they can easily issue more debt. * Has $640B of assets overseas * Has $10 trillion…

I think you've missed the point - which is not that Saudi Arabia will collapse for financial reasons - but rather that the corrupt infrastructure which composes the system of organization (it could hardly be called government) of the House of Saud is getting more and more unstable, and less able to be kept together with mere funds alone - since there is already so much money in the empire, that the costs of the corru…

Re: corruption I don't think the Saudis are any more corrupt than Western economies. The patronage networks are personalised and familial in a way that's (mostly) unfamiliar to the West. But it's naive to think that Western politics isn't any more bought and paid for - in its own way.

My understanding is that Saudi Arabia has been directing a large part of Western foreign policy since at least the oil shocks of the 1970s.

SA is a particularly nasty regime. Not only has it been politically and diplomatically untouchable even when clearly linked to anti-Western terrorism, but many US-led foreign interventions have been of obvious benefit to the Saudis and the US MIC, while making little sense at home.

So even if the Pentagon can game the Fall of the House of Saud militarily, that doesn't mean putting boots on the ground is a viable political solution.

At this point I don't think anyone knows what a viable political solution looks like in that part of the world.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#44

Post by salafi »

nabla9 wrote: post #25

Boko Haram, al-Qaida, ISIS, Ansar al-Shariah, Jund al-Khilafan, al-Nusra, ... You can backtrack basically all active jihadist groups that attack west back to to the Saudi funded ideology. Even ISIS is offshoot of Wahabbi/Salafism. The "traditional" Islamist like Brotherhood put their efforts in Arab countries. Saudis are not in control of these groups, but they are responsible for the ideology. Saudi Arabia's Curricu…

I can't, for the life of me, understand why people associate being a Salafi with the various terrorist groups.

I have never heard a Salafi scholar promote any acts terrorism. In fact, every single high-ranking scholar in Saudi Arabia (those who call themselves Salafi), are all opposed to groups like ISIS, Al Qaida, and Al Nusra. There are dozens of audio clips on Youtube from such scholars who clearly warn the Muslims from these types of groups.

Here is one such video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xAZLE6JiqE

And another: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNL9cwB-plY

And another (from arguably the most respected Saudi scholar): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J5s2PPwZcY

Here are two from a Muslim student of knowledge from the UK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05yw1IXM1k4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ocvexFXCo8

There is also a great book that references many of the Islamic verdicts given by the contemporary Salafi Muslim scholars that dispels much of the "Wahhabi" myth:

http://www.amazon.com/The-Wahhabi-Myth-Dispelling-Fictitious...

I'm not here to preach; it just bothers me when people hijack words to push an agenda.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#45

Post by mirimir »

s_q_b wrote: post #36
nabla9 wrote: post #25

Boko Haram, al-Qaida, ISIS, Ansar al-Shariah, Jund al-Khilafan, al-Nusra, ... You can backtrack basically all active jihadist groups that attack west back to to the Saudi funded ideology. Even ISIS is offshoot of Wahabbi/Salafism. The "traditional" Islamist like Brotherhood put their efforts in Arab countries. Saudis are not in control of these groups, but they are responsible for the ideology. Saudi Arabia's Curricu…

There are nine pages redacted from the 9/11 report, because they were deemed too incendiary against an ally, Saudi Arabia. I want those pages.

The CIA and/or NSA very likely knew that the 9/11 terrorists were in the US, learning to fly airliners. Not long after 9/11, there were reports that Mossad agents (the "art students", as I recall) had been tailing the 9/11 terrorists. Almost all of whom were Saudis. But I've seen no credible reports that any of them knew what was planned.

And yes, those pages might be very interesting.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#46

Post by tomjen3 »

ck2 wrote: post #21
raverbashing wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good, they bought the weapons, do they know how to use them? It's dangerous, sure, but I would not bet on it being effective in defending their interests

Saudi Arabia has plenty of soldiers, they even have female fighter pilots. The insanity is those jet fighter pilots are NOT ALLOW TO DRIVE. The whole country is a nightmare waiting to happen once there is an economic crunch. The elite will be fine but their equivalent of the "middle-class" is completely screwed. They already have baked-in religious fundamentalism and they will most certainly turn to that in numbers.…

Source on the female fighter pilots? All I could find were articles on UAE first female fighter pilot teaming up with a prince from SA to bomb.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#47

Post by ianamartin »

baliansa wrote: post #6

This article comes from someone who clearly doesn't understand Saudi Arabia. It keeps on portraying Saudi Arabia as an extremism exporter while it is a very moderate country, just turn on their media ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Broadcasting_Cente... ) and you will see a very different nation from what is portrayed here. Saudis have suffered a lot in the War on Terrorism, the number of Saudis who died…

I will freely admit that I don't understand the politics of Saudi Arabia.

But is it not a known fact that the 9-11 operators were a) Saudi, and b) backed by the Saudi government?

I'm certainly happy to be proven wrong, but if I'm correct here, that seems a lot to me to fit in with the concept of "exporting terrorism".

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#48

Post by kuschku »

mirimir wrote: post #45
s_q_b wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are nine pages redacted from the 9/11 report, because they were deemed too incendiary against an ally, Saudi Arabia. I want those pages.

The CIA and/or NSA very likely knew that the 9/11 terrorists were in the US, learning to fly airliners. Not long after 9/11, there were reports that Mossad agents (the "art students", as I recall) had been tailing the 9/11 terrorists. Almost all of whom were Saudis. But I've seen no credible reports that any of them knew what was planned. And yes, those pages might be very interesting.

Well, some of those pages have been leaked by the German Federal Intelligence Agency (BND), because some of the attackers lived in Germany before and it was a priority for them.

Funnily, one of the attackers used to have a small internet cafe in my city before he learned to fly an airplane.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#49

Post by guftagu »

sremani wrote: post #14
Simorgh wrote: post #12

It's a bit unfair for the writer to describe a nation's ruling elite as a 'criminal organisation'. You could levy that accusation at every ruling elite, of every country, of every era. Nonetheless, the House of Saud funds 'schools' throughout Pakistan. These schools are known for spreading an extremist and violent philosophy [1], which clashes with the democratic and enlightened spirit of the educated-elite, at least…

Enlightened Elite in Pakistan? Pakistan is an Islamist garrison state that needs funds from outside to prop it up. Saudis and Americans (40 Billion US alone) are the only reason Pakistan is not economically bankrupt.

don't watch so much Fox News. A vast majority of people in Pakistan are very moderate. Much of the bad shit you see about extremists and all is from a particular area of Pakistan in the north west near Afghanistan. Pakistan army has cleared out most of the extremists from there and many operations are being conducted as National Action Plan to curb terrorism and extremism.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#50

Post by guftagu »

sremani wrote: post #14
Simorgh wrote: post #12

It's a bit unfair for the writer to describe a nation's ruling elite as a 'criminal organisation'. You could levy that accusation at every ruling elite, of every country, of every era. Nonetheless, the House of Saud funds 'schools' throughout Pakistan. These schools are known for spreading an extremist and violent philosophy [1], which clashes with the democratic and enlightened spirit of the educated-elite, at least…

Enlightened Elite in Pakistan? Pakistan is an Islamist garrison state that needs funds from outside to prop it up. Saudis and Americans (40 Billion US alone) are the only reason Pakistan is not economically bankrupt.

don't watch so much Fox News. A vast majority of people in Pakistan are very moderate. Much of the bad shit you see about extremists and all is from a particular area of Pakistan in the north west near Afghanistan. Pakistan army has cleared out most of the extremists from there and many operations are being conducted as National Action Plan to curb terrorism and extremism.
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