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Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

theatlantic.com

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Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#31

Post by swombat »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #28

And Russia. In the harsh world of realpolitik no one cares if Venezuela falls apart, except for the Venezuelans. If Russia falls apart it's a serious problem for everyone, because it won't fall apart quietly or peacefully.

> If Russia falls apart it's a serious problem for everyone, because it won't fall apart quietly or peacefully.

It might still be an improvement over its current approach - which is not falling apart, but is neither quiet nor peaceful. There's a fair bit of political analysis that suggests that Russia is for example about to test NATO by starting a war with Turkey, and that it is deliberately killing civilians in Syria to increase the flow of refugees to Europe (which destabilises the EU, naturally).

I'll take a Russia falling apart noisily over a Russia attempting to hegemonise half of Europe again...

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#32

Post by danieltillett »

sremani wrote: post #15
justincormack wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the thesis is not that the current budget deficit is a problem but the increasing costs of bribing and subduing the populace and the factions of the royal family turn into a bidding war, with increasingly expensive wars as the proxy war in Yemen escalates. The ownership of the assets overseas is somewhat complex too - there is little public documentation, but the country does not really own much, it is owned by in…

Would you think that House of Saud would venture into a price war if it felt vulnerable at home ?

I think it is similar to Germany's WWI 'gamble' of fighting a war on two fronts. Everyone knew this was a very bad idea, but it was thought that the gamble just might work if they could knock France out quickly. The house of saud knows they are sitting on a demographic time bomb in a world where renewables are getting cheaper every day. When you feel your options are limited you tend to take risks that are not wise.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#33

Post by krig »

Simorgh wrote: post #12

It's a bit unfair for the writer to describe a nation's ruling elite as a 'criminal organisation'. You could levy that accusation at every ruling elite, of every country, of every era. Nonetheless, the House of Saud funds 'schools' throughout Pakistan. These schools are known for spreading an extremist and violent philosophy [1], which clashes with the democratic and enlightened spirit of the educated-elite, at least…

> You could levy that accusation at every ruling elite, of every country, of every era.

Well, yes.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#34

Post by danmaz74 »

justincormack wrote: post #20

The poster recommended listening to "their media" for a balanced view on Saudi Arabia, which is nonsense in a country without a free press. And also suggested that the alternative to Saudi Arabia was Iran. Looked like a typical paid commenter.

"their media" aren't going to give a balanced view of the country, but they're going to give you an idea of the mainstream attitudes there.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#35

Post by swombat »

tome wrote: post #27
_0nac wrote: post #22

I've worked a fair amount in Saudi Arabia, and yeah, even by (low) Gulf standards it's a deeply fucked-up place and definitely a ticking time bomb. A few things people don't realize until they've actually been there: - Not all Saudis are rich. Quite the opposite, there are destitute beggars on the streets of Riyadh. The women were the saddest side, kneeling by the roadside begging for alms in their all-enveloping pit…

> Saudi Arabia is the world's only country named after its rulers How about the "Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan

Jordan is mostly just known as Jordan, whereas Saudi Arabia is in fact widely known by this full name. Witness the URL difference:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#36

Post by s_q_b »

nabla9 wrote: post #25

Boko Haram, al-Qaida, ISIS, Ansar al-Shariah, Jund al-Khilafan, al-Nusra, ... You can backtrack basically all active jihadist groups that attack west back to to the Saudi funded ideology. Even ISIS is offshoot of Wahabbi/Salafism. The "traditional" Islamist like Brotherhood put their efforts in Arab countries. Saudis are not in control of these groups, but they are responsible for the ideology. Saudi Arabia's Curricu…

There are nine pages redacted from the 9/11 report, because they were deemed too incendiary against an ally, Saudi Arabia.

I want those pages.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#37

Post by danieltillett »

fit2rule wrote: post #17
tristanj wrote: post #7

Saudi Arabia is not going to collapse anytime soon. The thesis (budget deficit of $98B budget leads to political instability and collapse) simply doesn't make sense when you look at their finances. Some facts: * Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, last year at only 1.6%. Their credit rating is A+ to AA; they can easily issue more debt. * Has $640B of assets overseas * Has $10 trillion…

I think you've missed the point - which is not that Saudi Arabia will collapse for financial reasons - but rather that the corrupt infrastructure which composes the system of organization (it could hardly be called government) of the House of Saud is getting more and more unstable, and less able to be kept together with mere funds alone - since there is already so much money in the empire, that the costs of the corru…

Yes I too find it unlikely that the pentagon is not running simulations of this outcome on a regular basis. I was under the impression that there is some public plan to sweep in and take over the eastern provinces if things get too chaotic.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#38

Post by jpatokal »

tome wrote: post #27
_0nac wrote: post #22

I've worked a fair amount in Saudi Arabia, and yeah, even by (low) Gulf standards it's a deeply fucked-up place and definitely a ticking time bomb. A few things people don't realize until they've actually been there: - Not all Saudis are rich. Quite the opposite, there are destitute beggars on the streets of Riyadh. The women were the saddest side, kneeling by the roadside begging for alms in their all-enveloping pit…

> Saudi Arabia is the world's only country named after its rulers How about the "Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan

Hashim ibn 'Abd Manaf died around 510 AD, so King Hussein's connection is rather tenuous to say the least. The state called Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, was founded by Ibn Saud in 1926, give or take a few years depending on where you draw the line.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#39

Post by jpatokal »

Simorgh wrote: post #12

It's a bit unfair for the writer to describe a nation's ruling elite as a 'criminal organisation'. You could levy that accusation at every ruling elite, of every country, of every era. Nonetheless, the House of Saud funds 'schools' throughout Pakistan. These schools are known for spreading an extremist and violent philosophy [1], which clashes with the democratic and enlightened spirit of the educated-elite, at least…

Yes, you could. But doing so equates the present-day Parliament of Sweden with the German Nazi Party under Hitler, so I'm not sure your argument is going to lead anywhere particularly useful.

Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse

#40

Post by lucaspiller »

ck2 wrote: post #21
raverbashing wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good, they bought the weapons, do they know how to use them? It's dangerous, sure, but I would not bet on it being effective in defending their interests

Saudi Arabia has plenty of soldiers, they even have female fighter pilots. The insanity is those jet fighter pilots are NOT ALLOW TO DRIVE. The whole country is a nightmare waiting to happen once there is an economic crunch. The elite will be fine but their equivalent of the "middle-class" is completely screwed. They already have baked-in religious fundamentalism and they will most certainly turn to that in numbers.…

> they even have female fighter pilots.

I think you may be getting confused with the UAE, which did a good PR job on its first female fighter pilot a couple of years ago.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/1...

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