Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
theatlantic.com
Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
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Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#2One of the most heavily armed countries btw.
At least we haven't sold them nukes, at least not the public knows about.
Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#3[deleted]
Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#4One of the most heavily armed countries btw. At least we haven't sold them nukes, at least not the public knows about.
I think the expectation is that they would get nukes from Pakistan.
Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#5One of the most heavily armed countries btw. At least we haven't sold them nukes, at least not the public knows about.
Some believe that Saudi Arabia has an agreement with Pakistan to provide nuclear weapons [1].
Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has intermediate range nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that were purchased from China.
Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#6This article comes from someone who clearly doesn't understand Saudi Arabia. It keeps on portraying Saudi Arabia as an extremism exporter while it is a very moderate country, just turn on their media (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Broadcasting_Cente...) and you will see a very different nation from what is portrayed here. Saudis have suffered a lot in the War on Terrorism, the number of Saudis who died in the Al-Qaeda insurgency is unbelievable, but no, Saudis are behind Al-Qaeda and they export terrorism. The authors are ignoring the fact that alternative, Iran, is a direct supporter of Hezbollah and many other militant groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. If you wanna keep on avoiding the reality and not participate in solving the Middle East's mess then it is your right to do so, but at the very least keep a fair view and stop calling us an extremism exporter.
Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#7Saudi Arabia is not going to collapse anytime soon. The thesis (budget deficit of $98B budget leads to political instability and collapse) simply doesn't make sense when you look at their finances. Some facts:
* Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, last year at only 1.6%. Their credit rating is A+ to AA; they can easily issue more debt.
* Has $640B of assets overseas
* Has $10 trillion of proven oil reserves, even at today's oil prices
They easily have enough money to handle this. An oil downturn like this won't wreck the country. Heck, there are a half-dozen countries in much worse positions that are way more likely to collapse than Saudi Arabia (i.e. North Korea, Greece, Argentina, Ukraine, Venezuela, Brazil). You could write an article like this for each of them. It's not hard to find problems in any country.
I'm guessing the authors are not happy with Saudi Arabia's treatment of political dissidents, and wrote an article to match.
Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#8One of the most heavily armed countries btw. At least we haven't sold them nukes, at least not the public knows about.
Good, they bought the weapons, do they know how to use them?
It's dangerous, sure, but I would not bet on it being effective in defending their interests
Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#9Saudi Arabia is not going to collapse anytime soon. The thesis (budget deficit of $98B budget leads to political instability and collapse) simply doesn't make sense when you look at their finances. Some facts: * Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, last year at only 1.6%. Their credit rating is A+ to AA; they can easily issue more debt. * Has $640B of assets overseas * Has $10 trillion…
Article agrees:
> Even accounting for today’s low oil prices, and even as Saudi officials step up arms purchases and military adventures in Yemen and elsewhere, Riyadh is hardly running out of funds.
Seems to be implying that less money for political loyalty may reveal tensions, and those tensions can undermine a political order we depend on.
Re: Washington Should Prepare for Saudi Arabia's Collapse
#10Saudi Arabia is not going to collapse anytime soon. The thesis (budget deficit of $98B budget leads to political instability and collapse) simply doesn't make sense when you look at their finances. Some facts: * Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, last year at only 1.6%. Their credit rating is A+ to AA; they can easily issue more debt. * Has $640B of assets overseas * Has $10 trillion…
No the thesis is not that the current budget deficit is a problem but the increasing costs of bribing and subduing the populace and the factions of the royal family turn into a bidding war, with increasingly expensive wars as the proxy war in Yemen escalates. The ownership of the assets overseas is somewhat complex too - there is little public documentation, but the country does not really own much, it is owned by individuals, as this is a traditional feudal monarchy, not a modern country, so there is no real "state". At some point with increasing factionalism this could be problematic for borrowing. If there were serious political issues, like the Saud's being kicked out, much of the money would go with them, and the credit rating would not last for long.
On the other hand people have been predicting the end of the House of Saud for decade now, and people have continued to support them and sell them unlimited weapons.