Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Feb 20, 2016, 12:55 AM UTC

sawthat wrote: post #39

danjayh wrote: post #23

I think that this is just the beginning. In my opinion, we're heading for a tech bust that's going to spread to the rest of the economy, and deflate additional bubbles (housing, for one). The government has been pushing cheap money for the better part of a decade in the name of creating the appearance of a 'recovery', but what they've really done is build a new house of cards. Make no mistake: the 'free' money that's…

I predict, that in the future, there will be a recession. Also, at some point, an economic boom. Feel free to quote me on that. I am unable to give exact dates, but there is a 25% chance that it will begin in the spring (what year, I cannot say)

Post by an4rchy » Sat, Feb 20, 2016, 1:13 AM UTC

enraged_camel wrote: post #90

danjayh wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll nail it down a little for you. I think it's going to be within two years, based purely on asset valuation : income ... which isn't a particularly sophisticated way to analyze it, but when people can't afford things anymore, they stop buying them, and that has predictable effects.

I think you should both put your money where your mouths are: longbets.org

Post by vadym909 » Sat, Feb 20, 2016, 1:28 AM UTC

nerfhammer wrote: post #89

Spooky23 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no shortage of real estate, and real estate historically is very cyclical. Even in an insane place like SFO, a few high profile failures can shutdown the cash pipeline for all sorts of companies. No cash, no coders, no rent. 2008 proved that when people are underwater, they walk away from mortgages because they see no consequence.

In the 2008 crisis home prices dropped by like 10-15%. The housing market didn't collapse. It's not as if the "bubble burst" and housing was worthless after that.

Post by superuser2 » Sat, Feb 20, 2016, 1:35 AM UTC

beatpanda wrote: post #96

superuser2 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I predict the bust will happen because the HN/Silicon Valley hivemind so obviously wants it to and so we'll all bet on each other's failure until it is realized. It really seems like if we all agreed to keep the music playing, the music would continue playing. But once we decide it's going to stop, it has to.

No. The people at the top providing the money for this circus are the ones with the power to stop the music, and they're stopping it because the companies they funded aren't performing. You actually can't just keep dumping money into companies that are doing nothing but burning it. But, yes, for the record, I do want the bubble to burst, because the world has real problems and I just got a cold recruiting email from…

Post by beatpanda » Sat, Feb 20, 2016, 1:38 AM UTC

superuser2 wrote: post #97

beatpanda wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The people at the top providing the money for this circus are the ones with the power to stop the music, and they're stopping it because the companies they funded aren't performing. You actually can't just keep dumping money into companies that are doing nothing but burning it. But, yes, for the record, I do want the bubble to burst, because the world has real problems and I just got a cold recruiting email from…

>"Silicon Valley" is a spectacular, world historical squandering of brain power and it needs to stop. Are you implying that there are less-frivolous actors offering competitive salaries and getting ignored, or that SV is inflating the price of programming labor? Because if the latter, and you're hoping for a correction of programming salaries down to lower-middle-class clerical work that humanitarians can afford, won…