The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…
Another thing is Americans have very little understanding of their own history; particularly how America went through the same type of tumult as China in its early economic development. Financial crises were the norm (and still are) and it was a wild place with loads of corruption and vast ungoverned / autonomous regions. Yes, soon China will have a financial crisis. It will have to undergo restructuring and debt for…
China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
201–210 of 219 posts
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#202The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…
It only seems like that because journalists like to write the same things as every other journalist. For almost 20 years I read stories about how China would surpass the United States in both economic and military power. There are a lot of underlying facts to China's investment driven growth cycle that can be explained in math and global trade balances. Their reserves can be spent very fast. GDP growth doesn't matter…
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US holds vastly more US treasury bonds than any other country. But look at the data: http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt China holds about the same amount as Japan, and if you count Europe as a region, then Europe holds more than either of them. Furthermore it doesn't really matter: it's not like they can 'call the debt.' China has to wait for their bonds to mature just like everyone else. Really it's rat…
You're right it doesn't matter that China has loaned us tons of money. You can talk your way around it and Wall Street and the American media outlets have done this for years but it does not change the facts. China continues to grow as an economic threat to the US and we don't want to believe it.
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bangkok is a much more cosmopolitan city than Beijing or even Shanghai. I get the feeling that Thailand is a bit richer than China per capita. That's about it though.
Beijing takes the cake for both craziest bus drivers and bicyclists, beating Hanoi and Davis, CA.
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
Couple of points... - There has been no economy that has been able to grow debt as fast as China has without accumulating a large amount of bad debt. This is just as true for the US in the 1920's, Japan in the 1980's, Greece, Spain, Iceland, Portugal, Brazil, Mexico, etc. - China has grown debt to GDP at a breathtaking pace. - Savings and debt are opposite sides of the same coin. Once a loan goes bad the debtor's pro…
Fair points. There will certainly be turmoil and pain in a downturn. The main thrust of my comment was to dispel the notion that recapitalizing banks or QE to write off non-performing loans would cause uncontrolled inflation. This misconception is a misunderstanding of how fiat money creation and destruction work in the modern economies. The oppose is true. Not doing those would cause credit crunch. The Great Depress…
The only thing that is special about a central bank is that their special relationship with the government exempts them from the regulations that apply to other banks. However, they still have a balance sheet with debts, which are deposits with the central banks and federal reserve notes (cash) and assets which are assets and loans that have been purchased on the open market.
The central bank also has a small amount of capital which is the ownership stakes of the member banks. Half of which is on deposit with the Federal Reserve and half of which isn't invested but can be called if required. That ownership stake has a guaranteed 8% return (and an effective 16% return) which is a nice deal if you can get it.
Due to its special status a central bank can't be subject to bank runs or be forced into receivership by regulators but it can still be balance-sheet insolvent. And a balance sheet insolvent central bank is a wounded central bank because it loses some of it's ability to control monetary policy through reducing its balance sheets.
In severe deflationary conditions a central bank may take more risks that may put it in a position of being balance sheet insolvent. For example, through the purchase of long term zero coupon government bonds at face value. The effect is to tell the markets that the central bank is putting a ceiling on interest rates long term regardless of inflation which encourages speculation.
Ultimately if a central bank has a consequence free way of creating all the money they needed at will their would be no need for taxes because the central bank could just give the government all the money it wanted.
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
Fair points. There will certainly be turmoil and pain in a downturn. The main thrust of my comment was to dispel the notion that recapitalizing banks or QE to write off non-performing loans would cause uncontrolled inflation. This misconception is a misunderstanding of how fiat money creation and destruction work in the modern economies. The oppose is true. Not doing those would cause credit crunch. The Great Depress…
The thrust of my comment is that resolving bad debt isn't merely a painless exercise in monetary policy. Resolving the bad debt requires somebody to absorb those losses through reduced future consumption. Who absorbs those losses is essentially a matter of public policy, not monetary policy. The only thing that is special about a central bank is that their special relationship with the government exempts them from th…
As an example, consider that perfectly good farmland in the central valley was being used to construct houses that would later be marked down to half their value during the bust. The land, labor and capital were being drawn away from other uses during that period of investment. So your argument that the payment must be made later in the real economy ignores the disruption that the initial boom created. The boom is not the free lunch that must later be paid for, the boom is the destruction of the existing structure of the economy that will hopefully increase efficiency enough to provide for increased consumption of consumer goods at a later time to make up for the restrictions during the boom.
In China, instead of creating a period of reseting to the previous price relationships that existed before the boom and returning all the property back to the lenders or those who lend new money from them, they simply warp the economy in yet another direction that the central planners and their partially privatized counterparts in the bank think will improve production capacity.
The government in China regularly lets very bad investments fail, and many important hedge funds and such have failed completely where in the west they would be saved.
The U.S central bank has a balance sheet but they can create unlimited liabilities. Federal Reserve Notes are debt of the federal reserve that is redeemable for 1 for 1 with other federal reserve notes and has the handy and unique property that it is the only valid legal tender for paying federal taxes and must be accepted for settlement of any debt, which is what gives its intrinsic value.
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oh silly, why would anyone want to... http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/09/house_rep... Oh yeah, now I remember why our credit rating was lowered.
Think of it this way. Your parents borrow $10000 to throw a big party--one that you were not allowed to attend. After they die, their wills are read, bequeathing unto you $10000 in festivity debt, plus 50 years of interest. They never paid for the party, despite having such a great time at it (or so you assume, not having been there to judge). Now you have a choice. You can try to maintain the postmortem reputations…
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
US treasuries are at historically low rates -- if China dumped 'em all it probably wouldn't move the needle that much. And the reason they hold so many is not as some control play against the US -- its because it was the best way to devalue their currency enough to support exports.
The research that I did on this for my grad school project with the GAO suggested that there was generally enough liquidity in the secondary bond market to absorb even a mass sale from China over the time period required to do so.
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
China can do things at a scale the West in general, and the US in particular can't even fathom. I was in Tibet with some friends in October. At one point, our tour bus was detoured, because the bridge on our scheduled route wasn't big enough for it, so we drove a couple hours out of our way, and just happened to pass a 10MW solar plant. In the middle of Nowhere, Tibet. A thing we wouldn't even have seen if we hadn't…
new constitution, which favored closer ties with China over India. Really? They have it ingrained in the constitution? If Geo-political situation changes, and they need to re-balance their ties? They are going to need constitutional amendments?
Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
The thrust of my comment is that resolving bad debt isn't merely a painless exercise in monetary policy. Resolving the bad debt requires somebody to absorb those losses through reduced future consumption. Who absorbs those losses is essentially a matter of public policy, not monetary policy. The only thing that is special about a central bank is that their special relationship with the government exempts them from th…
The bad debt was used for capital creation. The capital created may be wasted. The restriction of consumption has already happened during the boom when the investment of the money in creation of capital goods caused individuals to restrict consumption for other reasons. As an example, consider that perfectly good farmland in the central valley was being used to construct houses that would later be marked down to half…
The default process isn't painless as losses have to be allocated between the banks investors, farmer, suppliers and construction workers. While the question of who takes the loss is worked out there is considerable uncertainty. Who's going to make large purchase decisions when they aren't sure how much purchasing power that they have?
The result is that while losses are being allocated the velocity of money slows which lowers GDP and as those effects ripple through the economy it creates deflation.