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Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

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Re: Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

#111
DFJ has had some great exits over the years. But looking at their current active portfolio, they're a little exposed.... and certainly not investing in any early rounds.

It's not surprising to hear they plan to slow down investing. But that's not necessarily a reflection of the overall market.

http://dfjgrowth.com/portfolio

Re: Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with that, but I also have the experience of visiting my sister in 1995 and asking her if she understood the funny string at the bottom of a Toyota commercial that was a URL. She did not. And her only email address was one she had for work, because everyone else either wrote letters or talked with her on the phone. The point I'm trying to make is that many things of the current wave will pass into obscurity a…

I wonder, though. Your two examples are both open standards. How many companies go under (or get acquired) and take their technology with them? We're not working together, we're letting investors decide what we make, and in the end what we produce is ephemeral. Is our greed hijacking progress?

Clearly a lot do, but the concept, once shared, seems to live on. I find it particularly amusing that EBay, which pretty much defined the market for selling your junk online, has now moved so far that there are new startups like "LetGo" and the other one with the name I can never remember trying to be in this space. The concept continues, and the technology to implement it evolves.

As for the question, greed always hijacks progress, that is the lesson of the Prisoner's Dilemma.

Re: Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

#114

So the above is obviously written through a VC lens. Through an entrepreneur's lens - who also survived the dot-com bust (at etoys.com) and has since run several failed and now successful businesses - I'd add the following: The most valuable advice in this post reminds me of Marc A's awesome blog entry. Quote: "Companies that have a retention problem usually have a winning problem. Or rather, a "not winning" problem.…

Lots of valuable stuff in this comment. It kind of deserves a post of its own. I would love to read more about your experiences. I bet a lot of entrepreneurs can learn a thing or two from them.

Thanks. I almost posted it on my blog instead. I really need to start blogging again. I stopped about 6 years ago because I realized that I was writing a lot of posts and doing talks and mentoring in the Seattle startup community, but I had a startup that was losing money and I had no idea what I was doing. So I didn't really have any right to try and give others advice. So I stopped doing that.

The more I learn the more I realize I don't yet know - and hiring people smarter than I am tends to amplify that effect. So I still don't feel like I'm even close to being an expert - but I can share war stories, data and things that worked and did not. I'll try to get back on my blog and I might get my wife/co-founder involved. She's also been forged in the fires of startup hell and has a lot of wisdom to share I think.

Re: Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

#115
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically any startup with an iOS only product (disclaimer our's is iOS only).

Given that iOS has a 40%+ market share in the US, no.

The market for smartphones is only about mid-60% of all Americans, though, from what I've read. So still not 10%, but more like 25%-ish.

Re: Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

#116

So the above is obviously written through a VC lens. Through an entrepreneur's lens - who also survived the dot-com bust (at etoys.com) and has since run several failed and now successful businesses - I'd add the following: The most valuable advice in this post reminds me of Marc A's awesome blog entry. Quote: "Companies that have a retention problem usually have a winning problem. Or rather, a "not winning" problem.…

Good points here but lots of questions remain:

What happens when you have competition with 10x or 50x the VC funding?

What happens to long-term product development when all you do is short term / small-scale improvements in order to 'better serve' your customers?

What happens to your core IP advantage that may be several years now but will have disappeared after doing long stretches of "feature" developments to chase after customers?

Re: Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

#117
post #3

The cynical side of me wonders if all this is "helpful advice" from VCs is just designed to bring valuations down to earth.

I am a cynic about VCs "Talking their books" but this is a little different: - The stock market is off 20%. - Very few IPOs. - Many hot IPOs are under the offering price. - Most of the public market investors that have entered late in the game (Fidelity, etc) are marking down their positions, and holding off on new investments. Every solid company should have a "What would we need to do to get cashflow positive?" sce…

so far, no IPOs this year!

Re: Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

#119

You know what kind of companies generally survive? Companies that make more money than they spend. I know, duh, right? If you make more than you spend, you get to stay alive for a long time. If you don’t, you have to get money from someone else to keep going. And, as I just said, that’s going to be way harder now. I’m embarrassed writing this because it is so flipping simple, yet it is amazing to me how many entrepre…

The difference between a startup and a new small business is novelty. A startup is innovating, a small business is not. More so if a startup is establishing or growing a market versus competing in an existing market.

Granted, a lot of tech "startups" in SV are not innovating and should probably not be classified as true startups, nevertheless, that's the differentiating factor.

Re: Dear Startups: Here’s How to Stay Alive

#120

> If you are in Silicon Valley and your customers are mostly well-paid consumers with no free time, or other venture-backed startups, well, I’d be worried. That's the most beautifully I've heard this thought articulated. I constantly hear people in SV talk publically talk about how they're living years in the future due to getting services from startups that haven't yet hit other markets. These people are very wealth…

Yes - much of the world is indeed willing to wait an hour to save a few dollars.

One lesson from 2001 is that Startups who Serve Startups tend to get hurt in the downturn as their customer are unable to pay them. Case in point Exodus. [0] This is especially relevant given the "Build something you want to use yourself" ethos.

The flip side is that if you make something that saves General Mills, Coca-Cola and P&G money, you'll always have a buyer.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exodus_Communications

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