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U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

nytimes.com

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Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#81

Post by xbmcuser »

tunesmith wrote: post #10
udfalkso wrote: post #3

A judge quoted in the article said, "my educated guess is nothing will happen before the next president is elected." Presumably he's talking about selecting a replacement to the supreme court. Is this accurate? How long does this process typically take?

Seems like it usually takes a month or two for presidents to appoint someone new, and this might be affected by the supreme court's schedule, too. The game theory of this is interesting, for instance, what if Obama nominates someone that is seen as more moderate than someone that Hillary or Sanders would nominate?

I will be shocked if Hillary nomination is more liberal than Obama's. Hillary is a conservative in Democrats clothing currently she is spouting liberal agenda to get the nomination once elected whe will go for conservative options under the umbrella of getting things done.

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#82

Post by xbmcuser »

tunesmith wrote: post #10
udfalkso wrote: post #3

A judge quoted in the article said, "my educated guess is nothing will happen before the next president is elected." Presumably he's talking about selecting a replacement to the supreme court. Is this accurate? How long does this process typically take?

Seems like it usually takes a month or two for presidents to appoint someone new, and this might be affected by the supreme court's schedule, too. The game theory of this is interesting, for instance, what if Obama nominates someone that is seen as more moderate than someone that Hillary or Sanders would nominate?

I will be shocked if Hillary nomination is more liberal than Obama's. Hillary is a conservative in Democrats clothing currently she is spouting liberal agenda to get the nomination once elected whe will go for conservative options under the umbrella of getting things done.

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#83

Post by bradleyjg »

Steko wrote: post #40
udfalkso wrote: post #3

A judge quoted in the article said, "my educated guess is nothing will happen before the next president is elected." Presumably he's talking about selecting a replacement to the supreme court. Is this accurate? How long does this process typically take?

The longest confirmation in history was apparently Brandeis at 125 days. Assuming Obama takes about a month to get a nomination together that leaves just over 300+ days left in this administration. That said, would not surprise me to see the Senate serially find reasons to reject say 3-4 candidates or screw precedent and just take forever to run out the clock on purpose. They will likely also have pro forma sessions…

Abe Fortas resigned May 15, 1969 and Harry Blackmun wasn't confirmed until May 12, 1970 (362 days) after the failed nominations of Haynsworth and Carswell. Likewise, Lewis Powell died June 26, 1987 but Anthony Kennedy wasn't confirmed until February 3, 1988 (222 days) after the failed nominations of Robert Bork and Douglas Ginsburg.

There may be other similar situations but those are the ones that came to mind.

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#84

Post by tptacek »

showerst wrote: post #80
udfalkso wrote: post #3

A judge quoted in the article said, "my educated guess is nothing will happen before the next president is elected." Presumably he's talking about selecting a replacement to the supreme court. Is this accurate? How long does this process typically take?

The math here is interesting for the republicans. A candidate has to confirmed by the senate judiciary committee (11/9 republican) then the whole senate (54/46 if the independents go dem as usual). The general consensus, however, is that the democrats have a good chance at winning back the senate. So the question for republicans is, do they accept a moderate candidate now, or stall until the election and risk having…

The Republicans have more or less already announced that they will refuse to consent to a replacement this term. That could change if Hillary wins (she will likely take the Senate with her if she does), but, the odds-on outcome is: Obama nominates someone, but no Obama nomination is confirmed.

It's not just that it's an election year, but that it's a closely divided Senate with a liberal President replacing the most reliable and influential conservative on the Court.

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#85

Post by generic_user »

dang wrote: post #70
generic_user wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will have to wish you to burn in hell when you pass also then. As a gesture of our compassion and humanity.

Please stop.

If they want to act like barbarians then they will be treated like barbarians. On there level because it seems to be the only level they understand.

These sad displays of unreasoned blind hatred can not longer go unchallenged by people who value democracy and free civilized discourse.

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#86

Post by sangnoir »

PKop wrote: post #48
nbadg wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlikely to be correct re: nomination, though it's difficult to know how the election will effect the confirmation process, and vice versa. Kagan was nominated May 2010 and confirmed August 2010; Sotomayor was nominated May 2009 and confirmed August 2009. I'm inclined to expect a nomination sooner rather than later, potentially of a candidate with very strong Democratic support. If Republicans oppose the nomination,…

OK, but if they do not oppose, their supporters will not support them in the election. They have a duty and obligation to oppose.

> They have a duty and obligation to oppose

Which is why they are likely to put up token opposition - enough to placate their supporters. Everyone panders to the center when election time comes, because that's where most of the voters are. This is why the rhetoric is extreme during the primaries, but is significantly toned afterwards.

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#87

Post by dragonwriter »

udfalkso wrote: post #3

A judge quoted in the article said, "my educated guess is nothing will happen before the next president is elected." Presumably he's talking about selecting a replacement to the supreme court. Is this accurate? How long does this process typically take?

Typical is irrelevant, its a political process and the Republican majority in the Senate will be under strong pressure from within their own party's base to block any Obama nomination, both on ideological grounds and for strategic reasons (to preserve the nomination for their Presidential candidate, should they win.)

I wouldn't be surprised if there is no action until after the election (if a Democrat is elected), or the inauguration (if a Republican is elected.)

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#88

Post by ethbro »

PKop wrote: post #53
aklemm wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Won't they be under an awful lot of pressure considering it will be obvious they are obstructing normal business?

I said this above, but I'll repeat: if they do not reject, their Republican base will revolt and not vote in the upcoming election. They will absolutely be expected to reject and oppose until Obama is out of office. There are 2 sides in the political game, remember. And since supreme court nominations are so important, and this changes the balance, voters will demand they reject his nominees.

I don't know. Given the timetable and the fact that neither the Republican Party or voters can say who will win the presidential election, it seems like there would be room for a qualified, centrist candidate.

Especially if Sanders and Trump stay in the race.

Better the devil candidate you know, etc etc

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#89

Post by themartorana »

aioprisan wrote: post #71
fennecfoxen wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be interesting of Obama did nominate a staunch centrist right out of the gate, as a gambit to get in a new justice confirmed before the likes of Donald Trump gets to make a nomination.

That's not possible, since a senate confirmation this close to elections is likely to just be punted on for a year.

Obama barely got the ACA through the Court, and that was by a breath. He would not give up the opportunity to make sure it's never that hard again.

Re: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died

#90

Post by mrgordon »

mikerichards wrote: post #79

Considering the constant 5-4 decisions, there's 0 chance that a new justice will be confirmed until the next President takes office

10 months? I find that unlikely. The conservatives might not LIKE it, but no 5-4 decision in the past is going to help them now.
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