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Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

business.financialpost.com

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Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem in Vancouver is the house prices are not driven by economic activity in the city itself. Bay area and Manhattan prices are a product of the local economies. Vancouver prices are a product of speculation and wealthy people who live/have property there but don't work there.

So why do speculators choose Vancouver of all places to speculate in?

1. Now-defunct Canadian Immigrant Investor program allowed you to buy permanent resident status in Canada, thus avoiding any potential future tax discrimination against foreigners. Unlike the US Green Card, Canadian PR status is permanent, affords all the privileges of citizenship except voting, and can never be revoked, even if you join a foreign army to fight Canada. A similar incarnation of this program still exists in Quebec (and allows you to move to Vancouver on day 1).

So not only can you buy property in Vancouver, but you can send your family over without worrying about any immigration troubles and always know you will be able to come live here if you desire.

2. Canada allows unlimited cash to be brought into the country tax-free as a gift to a relative.

3. Any gains from property speculation will be tax-free if a spouse or child claims the property is their residence. See (1) about ease of getting immigration status for your family.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#192
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why do speculators choose Vancouver of all places to speculate in?

I can't answer that, but I can add that it is quite common in London too. I can see the allure of the "park my millions in property in the world financial capital" investment strategy, but I don't get the Vancouver version. That's not meant as a slight on Vancouver.

You can't buy a UK or US passport. You can buy a Canadian one.

http://www.immigration.ca/en/immigration-wiki2/151-updates/7...

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#193
I see that as a worldwide problem, as interest rates tend to zero.

In Brazil, real estate prices are completely out of touch with median income (at least, the rents are still affordable, because the typical landlord owns only one or two places and simply needs to rent to cover taxes and maintenance, he cannot sit on them).

Economists and governments paid too much attention to the inflation of the Big Mac and forgot real estate and other hard assets. Also, govts have a huge incentive to allow real estate bubbles: tax revenue, abundance of blue-collar jobs while the construction frenzy lasts, illusion of prosperity for whoever already owns the home, etc.

Yet another possibility is that too many people need to put dirty or excess money in a 'safe' investment. I hear that Chinese buy a lot of real estate in London, Vancouver, etc. At least here in Brazil, the money you have in a bank can be frozen in a milissecond if you are suspect of a crime, but controls over real state are very lax, so a lot of corruption money goes into real estate, which fuels the bubble.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#194
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The key point you are missing is that housing is being bought almost entirely by people who do not live there and never will, either as investment vehicles, or a way to safely move money out of china (real estate is one of the few things china allows Chinese citizens to invest in outside of china). They have no incentive to even rent, because of both frozen value property taxes, and the house generally forming a smal…

[deleted]

The economic activity driving the purchases is not tied to Vancouver in any way, it would continue if nobody lived in Vancouver whatsoever. Its a place for rich mainland Chinese to dump their wealth away from the clutches of the CCP.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#195

Vancouver and cities like it became popular because of the critical mass of fun, interesting, creative, hard working young people who moved there and created communities. Once priced out, they will just go elsewhere. Other young people will follow and recreate the same communities with a lower price tag. Depending on local land use restrictions, some amount of gentrification then follows. In other words, this is a pr…

San Francisco is an outlier given the extremely dense concentration of high paying jobs which drove housing into orbit San Francisco's housing policies drove housing into orbit: http://techcrunch.com/2014/04/14/sf-housing/ . There are numerous other discussions of this: http://www.amazon.com/TheRent-Too-Damn-High-Matters-ebook/dp... . We have the technology to build lots of units (steel-frame construction, elevators)…

Would that actually solve the problem? Is there anywhere in America where steel frame construction + concrete walls + elevators is affordable to regular people? Is there even one example of this happening in the real world?

I haven't found any examples, except in already hyper-wealthy neighborhoods, or in 40+ yr old buildings in cities that became significantly less desirable, due to very high crime/poverty/etc. (Detroit, parts of Chicago, etc)

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> (From the Slate.com article you linked to) What should be happening in Silicon Valley is an enormous construction boom. There should be oodles of blue-collar jobs knocking down suburban-style single-family detached homes and replacing them with attached townhouses. Right by Caltrain stations, there should be huge apartment towers going up. Some people might get dispaced out of the individual house they live in, but generally should be able to afford to stay in the area

Is that a thing that has ever actually happened -- even just once? It sounds like a false narrative.

In the real world, the creation of the Highrise adds more units (increases supply) but does not reduce demand -- because the presence of the new building makes the neighborhood more attractive, so demand rises even more than the supply was increased, driving prices even higher. If a hypothetical high rise has 20 units, the act of constructing it increases demand by 40 units (20 of which the building absorbs, 20 of which are dumped back into the already-high-demand neighborhood.

I'm in the "low cost of living" Midwest, and even here this occurs. A developer pays $150k for a single family 4bed home. Tears it down, and builds 3 condos on the site, each condo lists for $250k - $300k and is only 2bed each. The previous occupants are guaranteed to be displaced -- even if they could downsize their space needs, they can't afford to double their housing costs.

Where is this hypothetical place where these brand new condos cost equal-or-less than the old single family house that was just torn down?

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#196

Vancouver's problem isn't the house prices. The problem is to a large extent caused by the author of this piece, the Hootsuite CEO. The few tech companies in vancouver don't pay. They expect the city to provide them a steady flow of over-educated 20-somethings willing to work long hours for only slightly more than rent. For the last 15 years the city has provided just that. The complaints now are that those 20-someth…

> The few tech companies in vancouver don't pay.

The tech companies in Vancouver haven't increased pay in step with skyrocketing housing. If you can find data on employee pay in the tech industry (good luck) you'd find it'd be fairly consistent. Compared to housing prices in Vancouver, you'd likely be looking at hockey stick growth. That's the disconnect.

If Hootsuite paid minimum wage, but cost-to-live was free, then it's a really good deal for developers.

Besides, you're ignoring the rest of the local economy. Tech is only a small part, and fixing it for one small sector isn't going to do much on a macro scale.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#197

Vancouver's problem isn't the house prices. The problem is to a large extent caused by the author of this piece, the Hootsuite CEO. The few tech companies in vancouver don't pay. They expect the city to provide them a steady flow of over-educated 20-somethings willing to work long hours for only slightly more than rent. For the last 15 years the city has provided just that. The complaints now are that those 20-someth…

This goes for Canadian employers in general, not just those in Vancouver. I'm not sure how they expect to retain talent when they offer on average about half the salary of similar positions in the US when adjusted for currency (and I'm not even talking about SF... Seattle is a 3 hour drive from Vancouver and moving there can easily double your salary with a comparable cost of living), especially since the barrier to…

The US, even Seattle, can be a culture shock for many Canadians. It is a very different country. I know of several people who have fled the US after only a couple years. It generally boils down to race, religion and guns, all of which are radically different on either side of the boarder. It's not that one is better than the other, but that a person raised in one environment can be taken aback by the immediacy of the change.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why do speculators choose Vancouver of all places to speculate in?

1. Now-defunct Canadian Immigrant Investor program allowed you to buy permanent resident status in Canada, thus avoiding any potential future tax discrimination against foreigners. Unlike the US Green Card, Canadian PR status is permanent, affords all the privileges of citizenship except voting, and can never be revoked, even if you join a foreign army to fight Canada. A similar incarnation of this program still exis…

Also note that provincial/federal governments are willfully ignorant about these issues.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#199
post #82

It seems like many major cities of the world are experiencing this problem, and no city has been able to come up with a good solution. It always leads to displacement and newspaper articles about displacement, but no real solutions. Here are a couple of solutions: 1. Build really tall. Hasn't worked out all that great in Hong Kong, though. 2. Rent control. This is often unfair and inflates price of non-rent controlle…

That requires the government to acknowledge there is a problem and come up with a clear strategy to solve the problem. The BC Provincial Government is working very hard to ignore it as a problem, where they won't even commission studies to generate data on how bad the problem is (or isn't). The federal government has also signaled their distancing from the Vancouver housing issue. Also, the real problem is foreign ow…

Also, the real problem is foreign ownership.

What evidence is there that foreign ownership is a major problem? I've heard plenty of anecdotes, but no actual data. I do know that Vancouver real estate agents are milking the "yellow peril" for all it's worth. "Buy now before China owns all of Vancouver!".

Suffice to say, Canadians are doing what American's did in the early 2000's. They are going into a crazy amount of debt to buy housing, which is only pushing prices up even higher. Some of the stats make Canada look even worse than the US did at it's peak[1].

[1]http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-c...

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