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Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

theguardian.com

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Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#51

Post by chvid »

chvid wrote: post #12

Germany led by Merkel has set itself up for trouble. Cyprus and Greece have created a precedence for creditor bail-ins. Public finances are stretched due to refugee inflows and opposition to Merkel is growing even internally in her massive coalition government. This setup may lead to something not predicted (ie. DB not getting the guarantees it needs or even a creditor bail-in) or more predictively the rise of left o…

I am sorry; what I wrote was not correct.

What I meant was: The influx of refugees will strech the public finances.

How much and whether "welcoming refugees eventually will turn out to be a good investment" is deeply controversial and so politicized that it is very hard to have a reasonable conversation about it.

However I think it is fair to say that taking in refugees costs money in the short term.

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#52

Post by JetSetWilly »

ivanca wrote: post #21
JetSetWilly wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Regulators fine all banks in the US that they catch flagrantly breaking the law. They don't just fine European banks - have a look at how much they have fined the likes of JPMorgan or BoA over the last few years. Likewise, regulators in Europe dish out fines a-plenty. The FSA certainly did over the LIBOR scandal recently. European banks could mitigate risk in the US by trading legally or by ceasing trading there a…

...but you forgot a little detail, the US saves each of its banks if they get any close to becoming bankrupt. They don't save foreign banks if the same happens, at all.

Entirely false. Foreign banks received plenty of US bailout funds for their US activities. See for example: http://www.newstatesman.com/2010/12/financial-british-money-... - british banks alone took 640 billion in aid from the fed.

Multinationals just don't work like that.

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#53

Post by TurboHaskal »

Sidon wrote: post #29
wobbleblob wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My colleague from Greece has been giddy as a schoolboy about this story all week. Not quite the roaring, thunderous fits of laughter as with the Volkswagen scandal, but this is still developing.

Maybe your colleague from Greece should realize that when DB 'falls' tons of people will take the fall for it, regular people like you and me, people who are just trying to make a living, like all those poor fucks in Greece. The group of people taking the fall for it won't be limited to Germany, you can be sure Greeks will feel it as well. Tell him to just stfu and get back to work.

Yeah, tell that dirty lazy Greek to get back to work. They deserve every bit of what happened to them and the debt won't pay by itself.

Such a banking fiasco would never happen in a country filled with precise, punctual, hard-working and responsible light beings such as Germany.

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#54

Post by morsch »

chvid wrote: post #51
chvid wrote: post #12

Germany led by Merkel has set itself up for trouble. Cyprus and Greece have created a precedence for creditor bail-ins. Public finances are stretched due to refugee inflows and opposition to Merkel is growing even internally in her massive coalition government. This setup may lead to something not predicted (ie. DB not getting the guarantees it needs or even a creditor bail-in) or more predictively the rise of left o…

I am sorry; what I wrote was not correct. What I meant was: The influx of refugees will strech the public finances. How much and whether "welcoming refugees eventually will turn out to be a good investment" is deeply controversial and so politicized that it is very hard to have a reasonable conversation about it. However I think it is fair to say that taking in refugees costs money in the short term.

Merkel buying new shoe laces costs money in the short term. You have just repeated your claims from the original post without clearing up what you mean by stretching public finances and documenting it with numbers. Everybody else is basically saying that the refugees aren't expensive enough to warrant this language on the balance sheet of one of the richer economies in the world.

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#55

Post by Oletros »

Sidon wrote: post #29
wobbleblob wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My colleague from Greece has been giddy as a schoolboy about this story all week. Not quite the roaring, thunderous fits of laughter as with the Volkswagen scandal, but this is still developing.

Maybe your colleague from Greece should realize that when DB 'falls' tons of people will take the fall for it, regular people like you and me, people who are just trying to make a living, like all those poor fucks in Greece. The group of people taking the fall for it won't be limited to Germany, you can be sure Greeks will feel it as well. Tell him to just stfu and get back to work.

The only difference is that right now the bank is German.

When the banks were Greek, Spanish, Portuguese or Irish, the German government didn't give a fuck about the people.

Don't tell us about regular people, we have suffered it since years ago and Merkel just said STFU and fuck off

And don't talking about the moral lessons they gave us. But ohh, the German banks are exactly the same as the other ones

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#56

Post by eronhp »

morsch wrote: post #50
vetinari wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic migrants are not going to work and be a tax payers. Even if they wanted to work, there's no work for their qualification. They are going to drain the social support budget and increase the inner pressure in the society.

In the past, 10% of regugees were employed after a year, 50% after 5 years, 70% after 15 years[0]. So it takes a while, unsurprisingly, but your predicitions are not borne out in reality. Of course extrapolating from past experience is just an approximation, so it might take longer; on the other hand there are probably ways to speed up the process. [0] Figures released by a research institute of the federal governmen…

Are you really implying that after 15 years, a 30% unemployment rate is a good outcome?

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#57

Post by cm2187 »

Hermel wrote: post #5
_Codemonkeyism wrote: post #3

German media makes a point that Deutsche Bank has been hit hard with the fines from their (past) crimes. Investment bankers and CEOs took their bonuses and moved on. Spiegel reports Deutsche Bank used $15 billions since 2012 for legal disputes.

I wonder why there isn't more resistance against the exorbitant fines the US charges European banks every year. These fines have become a significant business risk and should be regulated in free trade agreements, just like subsidies are limited in such agreements. For many European banks, the US business is a money drain, i.e. it costs them more than they get from it. However, they cannot escape US regulation and le…

At this stage these fines can be called "taxes", a 100% tax rate.

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#58

Post by morsch »

eronhp wrote: post #56
morsch wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the past, 10% of regugees were employed after a year, 50% after 5 years, 70% after 15 years[0]. So it takes a while, unsurprisingly, but your predicitions are not borne out in reality. Of course extrapolating from past experience is just an approximation, so it might take longer; on the other hand there are probably ways to speed up the process. [0] Figures released by a research institute of the federal governmen…

Are you really implying that after 15 years, a 30% unemployment rate is a good outcome?

I'm not implying anything. I'm saying that the GP's predictions of 100% unemployment after unspecified amounts of time are unfounded and digging up some more reasonable numbers.

I suppose a good outcome would see the unemployment rate of refugees converge against the unemployment rate of the non-migrant population (vaguely: 7.9%[0]), or more specifically the unemployment rate of those parts of the non-migrant population with similar levels of qualification (vaguely: 13.3%). Because as these levels converge, it makes less and less sense to think of it as a migration issue and more of a more general labor market issue.

[0] Numbers strictly to get a feel for the broad range, the first is the overall unemployment rate in 2011, the second the unemployment rate of people with basic education; unemployment numbers are a rats nest in the best of cases. http://www.bpb.de/nachschlagen/zahlen-und-fakten/soziale-sit...

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#59

Post by pizza234 »

Kristine1975 wrote: post #7
Hermel wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder why there isn't more resistance against the exorbitant fines the US charges European banks every year. These fines have become a significant business risk and should be regulated in free trade agreements, just like subsidies are limited in such agreements. For many European banks, the US business is a money drain, i.e. it costs them more than they get from it. However, they cannot escape US regulation and le…

Maybe the banks should simply stop committing crimes.

It really depends on how big the bank is.

If a bank is really big, like HSBC, it can't/won't be penally prosecuted in real world, so the rational choice [1] is actually to keep committing crimes, and settle the ones where they're caught.

On the scale of such bank, even fines which would be astronomical from the perspective of a normal citizen, are peanuts (so to speak) for a large bank.

[1] = in a logical, not moral, sense.

Re: Deutsche Bank: Germany's Financial Colossus Stumbles

#60

Post by StavrosK »

TurboHaskal wrote: post #53
Sidon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe your colleague from Greece should realize that when DB 'falls' tons of people will take the fall for it, regular people like you and me, people who are just trying to make a living, like all those poor fucks in Greece. The group of people taking the fall for it won't be limited to Germany, you can be sure Greeks will feel it as well. Tell him to just stfu and get back to work.

Yeah, tell that dirty lazy Greek to get back to work. They deserve every bit of what happened to them and the debt won't pay by itself. Such a banking fiasco would never happen in a country filled with precise, punctual, hard-working and responsible light beings such as Germany.

But, I mean, apart from his offensive last line, he has a point. I'm Greek and I wouldn't wish bank failure on anyone, German or not.
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