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LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

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Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#651

Post by toomuchtodo »

Swizec wrote: post #650
toomuchtodo wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your reason for living in SF and still traveling frequently? Access to work in SF? I ask because I'm a remote worker for an SF startup, home base in a low cost of living area, but I travel frequently as well (but the home was purchased somewhere where the house is paid in full already and the monthly upkeep is ~$500/month).

Access to work is about the same as remote with social network in SF. Two reasons why I choose to stay here: 1) building said network so I can go back to proper nomading easier, and 2) access to the startup lottery; nobody gives shares/options to remote workers and/or independent consultants/freelancers Lottery is a nice potential upside with next to zero downside as an engineer

> nobody gives shares/options to remote workers

I received equity as part of my remote worker compensation (my entire team is remote though).

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#652

Post by alexqgb »

codesushi42 wrote: post #537
LoSboccacc wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyone will be affected, even those who are flipping burgers in the Bay Area. hey sure there is a bubble there, but last time I checked BA wasn't caput mundi yet. Plenty non inflated startups do exist, even if not specifically there. Where the whole economy is sustained by VC money, well, there's gonna hit the hardest. But doesn't seem that the whole IT world is following that model.

That doesn't matter in the short term. Once the inflated startups tank, everything will take a dive. Remember 2000? Maybe not. Seems like many here are too young. I'm only in my early 30s and am already feeling deja vu. Life is strange.

When the dot.com economy crashed, Google and Apple weren't producing billions in quarterly profits. Facebook didn't even exist. Today, the local economy is a very different thing. There's a new layer of massive and massively profitable companies that are not relying on venture money to keep their doors open. Meanwhile, a number of truly fundamental breakthroughs in AI, A/VR, genetics (CRISPR), transportation, and energy are happening simultaneously. Any one of them could trigger another tech boom, especially when corporate balance sheets have ludicrous amounts of liquidity. All five at once indicates a world-historical event in the making (think Second Industrial Revolution).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution

Accordingly, there's no reason to be investing in fluff like file sharing, app-based bike delivery, or "valuable" services like Shazam when there's real work to be done. In other words, the VC correction unfolding now is exactly that, a correction (long overdue, to my mind, and an unambiguously healthy thing). It will hurt a lot of overextended people to be sure, and unprofitable companies with dubious valuations that are laying people off now are wise to get ahead of the crunch.

As the squeeze tightens, salaries will even out, the balance of power will shift to employers, traffic may improve (slightly), and rents may even stop climbing. But 20-30% declines in the overall housing market? Dream on. Prices here are a function of a massive shortage, off-the-charts desirability, and deeply-rooted peculiarities in the tax code (Prop. 13), not Florida-style speculation. All of these factors are far more impervious to temporary downturns in the employment market.

Having lived through the dot.com crash, I can certainly hear echoes, but deja vu it isn't. The world is now a very different place.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#653

Post by alexqgb »

rsync wrote: post #613
jrowley wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Property values might not continue to grow at such a high rate but they aren't going to decrease by 30%. That's ludicrous.

It just happened ! Not more than 7-8 years ago! It happened in many, many markets across the US and the world. We just saw it happen!

That was part of a massive, global housing bubble popping. A better point of reference is the dot.com crash (the worst of which was a local event) and the worst you saw, at least in decent areas, were valuations that stopped climbing.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#654

Post by nikdaheratik »

codesushi42 wrote: post #560
weeksie wrote: post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, I was around. Regardless, I was stating that your dismissal of "basic economics" was wrong. It's not basic economics, there's a lot that goes into the equation. Wages might go down. Wages might not go down by a ton. They might drop like a rock. It all depends on a number of factors, but blithely dismissing people with some nonesense about econ 101 is not being intellectually honest.

You're still talking macro 101. I'm not talking about nationwide unemployment figures here. The key is that wages for /engineers/ will fall if funding and jobs disappear in the tech sector. Today's wages for engineers are high and will be unsustainable when things go bust. How much they will fall is anyone's guess. But the reasoning behind why they will fall is very straightforward.

I disagree completely. I think there are really two markets for dev jobs: the startup economy which is over-inflated but also exists in a smaller high COL location, and everyone else which had lower COL and wages to begin with and likely won't see much of a drop in wages due to the fact that their company needs those services to function efficiently.

You can argue that the drop in employment in startup land may see some movement outside the bay area and into boring lower paid dev jobs, but I doubt that it will be more than a small blip.

TL;DR: If you're at a start up the good times might be over. If you're not, don't expect much change (maybe less likely to see a pay rise). If you're just coming out of Uni and into the job market, you may see interesting times.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#655

Post by stephenitis »

skewart wrote: post #123
jonathanehrlich wrote: post #29

Just another reminder to never ever build your company for Wall street. In 2004, Netflix went from 40 to 2 in 6 months. Amazon from 89 to 5. There are entirely zero competitors to Linkedin right now (FB is nowwhere in the space). And while i agree the product has stagnated a bit - this in my view is another example of Wall Street's insanity. (and no, i don't own any shares :)

The problem is that their business model is probably more sensitive to overall economic health than most. Premium services that are nice to have for recruiting might be some of the first things to get cut from customers' budgets in a downturn when they're not hiring as much. I suspect that investors are jittery about the economy overall and think LinkedIn might be in for a slow couple of years if the economy stagnate…

>Premium services that are nice to have for recruiting might be some of the first things to get cut from customers' budgets in a downturn when they're not hiring as much.

I agree.

The binge on linkedin spending can't increase dramatically forever it eventually will follow the macro trends.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#656

Post by robin_reala »

suprgeek wrote: post #179

All those celebrating this event - don't. If you think these guys were using shady and scummy tactics before to spam you and steal your contacts, what do you think they are going to do when their share price sinks? Suddenly reform and stop the borderline-illegal stuff? LinkedIn will get even more aggressive at monetization. So expect even more of: 1) Random clicks that let you "invite" everyone in your address book 2…

I say this every time LinkedIn comes up but there’s an easy way to fix this: delete your account[1]. If they keep on emailing you, unsubscribe. If they keep on emailing you, threaten to sue and you’ll be put on some sort of internal blacklist (worked for me). Job done.

[1] https://help.linkedin.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/63/kw/dele...

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#657

Post by AlwaysRock »

noir_lord wrote: post #442
AlwaysRock wrote: post #285

request I use a Chrome extension that removed the ability to see the news feed on facebook called News Feed Eradicator. Since installing it I've saved a lot of time because I can still use Facebook messages and view groups that I am a part of but I don't get caught in the mindless scrolling trap. I would pay for a similar extension for linkedin. I have to use linkedin for work but I find myself scrolling mindlessly w…

Just add the classes/ID's to your adblock filters (very easy with ublock origin since you can just click the element and view the tree to find the element to nuke). Done that on all newspapers and youtube to block comments, they hardly ever add anything.

You are a king among men.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#658

Post by AlwaysRock »

tim333 wrote: post #483
noir_lord wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just add the classes/ID's to your adblock filters (very easy with ublock origin since you can just click the element and view the tree to find the element to nuke). Done that on all newspapers and youtube to block comments, they hardly ever add anything.

Yeah ! https://www.linkedin.com/ www.linkedin.com###ozfeed does it for me (click the name at the top in uBlock Origin to open the dashboard, stick that line in 'My Filters')

Thank you!

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#659

Post by notliketherest »

arbuge wrote: post #256
notliketherest wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From our experience targeting job titles, LinkedIn is actually much more comprehensive than Facebook. ie targeting "Operations Directors at Company X". Facebook doesn't provide that level of granularity, and our audience sizes are much bigger on LinkedIn.

Interesting. Do you find $2+ cpcs justifiable? Can you really get a good ROI with that?

A 50k month reoccurring revenue from a lead sourced via a $2cpc is justifiable yeah

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#660

Post by cscharenberg »

reitzensteinm wrote: post #288
cscharenberg wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. I get an email when someone asks to connect but nothing else, and I get that because I want it. They have pretty explicit settings. Just checked and "Introductions and InMail" are only thing enabled. You can also adjust frequency for individual types of messages so you get batch updates. LinkedIn is generally crappy at what is supposed to be its primary purposes, and they do shady UX stuff. But they have v…

I get zero spam to the email I have a LinkedIn account on. I get a shit ton to my gmail, no matter how often I click unsubscribe, send to spam and whatever else. So both your experience and the grandparent's are possible - they respect you, once you've signed up.

Interesting. That could explain the disparity of experiences being discussed here. I have all my emails in LinkedIn to be discoverable by colleagues, so that means LinkedIn also knows they are specifically me and I'm signed up.
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