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LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

businessinsider.com

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Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#631

Post by cylinder »

marincounty wrote: post #463
sinzone wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30% decline in bay area real estate values. that won't happen. During the 2008 big burst everywhere in USA was felling apart but in SF real-estate was just down 5%-10%. SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low. That won't change dramatically, with or without a collapse in the public market.

There are areas that do not follow Bay Area realestate economics. I have watched Bay Area realestate for too many years. I do agree the decline will be at least 30%. I think it will be more like 40%, but who knows. That said certain areas (Rich areas--Pacific heights, etc.) of San Francisco do not follow the trends. Marin county, with the exception of Novato, do not follow the trends.

Rich areas are "tightly held," they usually don't have mortgages and the owners are wealthy enough to not need to sell at a loss in downturns. These are the safest areas but don't get the huge appreciation in the upswings

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#632

Post by cylinder »

cplease wrote: post #512
potatolicious wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tenant protection laws in NYC are very tenant-friendly, to a degree where someone who is sufficiently motivated and knows the system can effectively live in an apartment rent-free for up to a year at a time, if not longer. Landlords are scared to death of deadbeat tenants like this, it costs a lot of legal fees to get rid of them, and they're freeloading while you're walking through the necessary legal processes. Eve…

I'm a landlord in New York and I've been a tenant in NYC and this just isn't true. Vast majority of rentals in NYC if you asked the super for a discount in rent you'd be requested not to let the door hit your ass on the way out.

Depends if you are talking about private small landlords or corporate institutional (ie, Related). The former has totally different motivations and needs. I haven't received rent reductions but I have fought off rent increases in strong markets.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#633

Post by marcell »

rsync wrote: post #608
jhulla wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop scaring the kiddos with your ghost stories. At least let them enjoy their weekend. The problem is shrinking global liquidity. Losses in the Chinese financial system and in the global energy sector are forcing governments, central banks and sovereign wealth funds to sell assets around the world. These are some of the biggest asset managers in the world. It is unclear to me how this will end. When the mortgage mar…

"Real estate values are sticky and will hold up longer than people think." This may be true in the general case, but there is a more relevant (IMO) general case here, and that is: demand outstripping supply causes prices to ramp up steeply ... but if that condition wavers at all they will drop. That is to say, if there is even a single marginal house for sale in the SFBA that can't clear, the whole market drops. Righ…

What do you mean by "clear"? Is that a synonym for "sell"?

If a house does not sell at a certain price, typically the owner can lower the sale price.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#635

Post by doktrin »

ownagefool wrote: post #589
codesushi42 wrote: post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're still talking macro 101. I'm not talking about nationwide unemployment figures here. The key is that wages for /engineers/ will fall if funding and jobs disappear in the tech sector. Today's wages for engineers are high and will be unsustainable when things go bust. How much they will fall is anyone's guess. But the reasoning behind why they will fall is very straightforward.

Wages probably will fall but it's probably also more complex than that. Your extremely talented engineers who build things at scale and understand the fundementals, who are basically a safe per of hands, are still going to be in deep demand. Profitiable companies that work at scale are still going to have real problems and are unlikely to turn around and tell their engineers that they're going to be getting significa…

This strikes me as a bit of a fantasy. Very few people can recognize, and even fewer value, a "safe pair of hands". Let's not also forget this industry's rampant ageism, which even in good times sidelines experience in favor of hipness. I have no idea why you think this will magically change just because times are tough.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#636

Post by morenoh149 »

cplease wrote: post #512
potatolicious wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tenant protection laws in NYC are very tenant-friendly, to a degree where someone who is sufficiently motivated and knows the system can effectively live in an apartment rent-free for up to a year at a time, if not longer. Landlords are scared to death of deadbeat tenants like this, it costs a lot of legal fees to get rid of them, and they're freeloading while you're walking through the necessary legal processes. Eve…

I'm a landlord in New York and I've been a tenant in NYC and this just isn't true. Vast majority of rentals in NYC if you asked the super for a discount in rent you'd be requested not to let the door hit your ass on the way out.

only works if prices are plateauing or dropping in your market

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#637

Post by d215 »

jusben1369 wrote: post #599
astazangasta wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, shorter summary: QE doesn't work.

QE works well. It's just limited in how much impact it can have because it's monetary policy. Fiscal policy is the other half of the equation and one that is much more politically charged. Bernanke did what he could with the tools at his disposal at a time when government was seized with deep partisanship. That's now coming home to roost as liquidity is removed from the system. Luckily, or appropriately, it's happeni…

Which countries in Europe would that be?

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#638

Post by JauntTrooper »

rfb wrote: post #610
Cookingboy wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bay Area's real estate is actually pretty cheap, considering how much economical output the area has and how desirable the location has been historically. Look at Vancouver, Hongkong, Shanghai, Moscow, Tokyo, all have waaaaay lower average household income than San Francisco Bay Area, yet wil much more expensive realestate price.

Living in British Columbia, I had always assumed Bay Area real estate would be astronomical. I found it surprising to see single family detached homes in the Bay Area for $300,000. That's entirely reasonable considering the potential incomes.

How long ago did you see that? And where?

The median price for a single-family home in the Bay Area is $841,560 as of Summer 2015.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#639

Post by mathattack »

I'm not an expert, but LinkedIn doesn't seem that awful a company at $14 billion market cap, especially given the following:

- The have $3 billion in cash [0]

- They are cash-flow positive, and have a $3 billion run rate. (So taking the cash out of the picture, their market cap is less than 4x revenue)

- Many business people (high value customers) use them many times a day.

- May people pay for the service. (I've paid as both a job-seeker and hiring manager)

- They have a stranglehold on executive search, with enormous pricing power.

- They have done this on the back of a dated product, without much evolution. This isn't the negative that it sounds like. It highlights their market strength. (Bloomberg and Salesforce are similar examples)

While the lack of future growth may warrant a price drop, I think they're taking a lot of heat for the industry as a whole. If they deserve a 40% drop, many others deserve much worse.

[0] https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ALNKD&ei=oIa2VuGwD4WK...

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#640

Post by emiranda »

TuringNYC wrote: post #401
Casseres wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30% returns per month Care to share how you did that?

You will always hear stories like this. And they are true, but what you dont hear about are all the people who were not lucky enough to time the market and how much they lost.

+1
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