Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

businessinsider.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

461–470 of 663 posts

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#461

Post by manigandham »

kuschku wrote: post #315
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

It’s probably even a too optimistic forecast. The readjustment of the market to reality is going to be a big issue, especially when one looks at just how many companies are operating at huge losses. Most people already know that it can’t continue like this. The good thing is, real estate values will decrease like the pay, so people can rent at cheaper rates in the bay areas. The bad thing is, those who have bought a…

> We’ll probably see a lot of tech giants like Twitter (no income? really?) tumble, and others take a small hit (like Google).

What do you mean by no income? Twitter makes billions in revenue...

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#462

Post by rokhayakebe »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #155

Startup CEOs are getting pretty young these days, has your niece been hitting you up for a seed round? I'm thinking an App that is Uber for Lemonade Stands, people in the neighborhood just press the "I'm thirsty" button and one of her "mixologists" nearby makes a lemonade and brings it by. She doesn't make the lemonade or sell it, she is all about connecting thirsty people to industrious people who are putting their…

You may be joking, but there is something here. There are plenty times when I would like to press a button and get my coffee delivered.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#463

Post by marincounty »

sinzone wrote: post #439
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

> 30% decline in bay area real estate values. that won't happen. During the 2008 big burst everywhere in USA was felling apart but in SF real-estate was just down 5%-10%. SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low. That won't change dramatically, with or without a collapse in the public market.

There are areas that do not follow Bay Area realestate economics.

I have watched Bay Area realestate for too many years. I do agree the decline will be at least 30%. I think it will be more like 40%, but who knows.

That said certain areas (Rich areas--Pacific heights, etc.) of San Francisco do not follow the trends. Marin county, with the exception of Novato, do not follow the trends.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#464

Post by pjdemers »

sinzone wrote: post #439
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

> 30% decline in bay area real estate values. that won't happen. During the 2008 big burst everywhere in USA was felling apart but in SF real-estate was just down 5%-10%. SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low. That won't change dramatically, with or without a collapse in the public market.

During the 2001-2002 bust, bay area rents fell 50% in marginal neighborhoods. In desirable neighborhoods, rents fell maybe 10%. Prices to buy came down, but not nearly as much. In marginal areas 20%, in desirable neighborhoods, maybe 1%. Small houses and fixer-uppers in the 10/10/10 school districts (ie, Palo Alto) kept going up. One reason is that construction prices fell 30%, so there was allot of tears downs and renovation happening.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#465

Post by Nemant »

designtofly wrote: post #300
dawhizkid wrote: post #28

LinkedIn is the king of "dark patterns" UI - every part of their website is optimized to trick you into doing something you have no intention of doing.

And I absolutely hate that they track which profiles you view and then display that information in the side bar under "people who viewed this profile also viewed". Unless you're looking at high profile person with millions of views, the "also viewed" list becomes a list of friends and not people in the same field or similar job profiles. If I ever have to click on a LinkedIn link, I always go into incognito mode.

Most of my linkedIn activity is on incognito mode

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#466

Post by nilkn »

ryanSrich wrote: post #332
cpprototypes wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the bay area, I think compensation drop will be far worse. The base salary of bay area companies has never been that impressive. Even the big tech companies like Google and Facebook, base salary is not much more than other regions. The impressive compensation numbers are always because of bonus+RSU. These will probably be massively reduced or even eliminated completely if the tech downturn gets bad enough.

Tech employees making $200k+ are the only ones who can afford a $4k per month apartment in SF. If salaries drop then rent drops. I don't see this being a bad thing.

The parent poster was suggesting that compensation would drop, but not necessarily salary. In other words, the $200k engineer might be making $120k in salary and $80k in other forms of deferred pay. That $80k will be gone in this example, but the $120k will remain. People pay rent out of their actual cash income, not out of unvested stock options.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#467

Post by rtpg »

pm90 wrote: post #417
cmurf wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not, because people don't ask. In 2008 when I was living in NYC, I asked and received 10-15% year over year decreases in rent (3 years). Long time NYers thought I was crazy to even ask. Incredulous I got it. And this was in Manhattan, doorman building, a few blocks from Lehman Bros. So yeah ask. And be prepared to move. If you aren't prepared to move, you're not ready to save.

Just curious, what do you mean, be prepared to move? Did you tell the landlord, "I will move if you don't give me a 10% decrease in rent"? I'm finding it hard to believe that in a market like NYC where the rents are sky high generally increasing, you could get such a discount. It also depends on the kind of property taxes prevalent in the states. e.g. in California, property taxes are set at the time of purchase, whi…

I think that that threat is more dependent on how fast they can fill the apartments. If the apartment ends up on the market for 2 months... well 10% decrease is the better option isn't it?

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#468

Post by nilkn »

ryanSrich wrote: post #410
Swizec wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, you exaggerate. Me and my girlfriend make about $160k together and we can afford[1] a $3.5k apartment in SF. If we made $200k+ each, or if even just one of us did, $4k wouldn't even be worth thinking about. [1] by "afford" I mean that there is money left at the end of the month.

You're spending 50% of your monthly post tax income on rent. That's not what I would call affordable.

So then they have $3.5k left after rent each month, while living in the middle of one of the most popular cities in the country.

Meanwhile, the average American couple would have less than $3.5k before paying, regardless of what their rent is.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#469

Post by roymurdock »

jhulla wrote: post #353
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

Stop scaring the kiddos with your ghost stories. At least let them enjoy their weekend. The problem is shrinking global liquidity. Losses in the Chinese financial system and in the global energy sector are forcing governments, central banks and sovereign wealth funds to sell assets around the world. These are some of the biggest asset managers in the world. It is unclear to me how this will end. When the mortgage mar…

> At the moment, outside of wholly energy dependent countries (Middle East, Latin America, Nigeria, etc.), there does not appear to me a 2008-like financial system shutdown.

There's nothing stopping central banks from creating more liquidity through progressive rounds of QE, each of them buying in because they know their country will suffer in the short run if they do not follow suit. Of course this will lead to deflation and another recession in the long run with many losing faith in monetary policy/central banks altogether, but we're not quite there yet. We've still got another couple of years before we hit that phase.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#470

Post by chadzawistowski »

xlayn wrote: post #379

First Twitter, and now Linked In. I've called unicorns and specially those without business model a bubble. What we are looking is a shift... -Happened from real state to oil -Oil to IT unicorns Now the question is where is the money being transferred to? I'm still wondering how has Facebook done to avoid all this happening to them.

I don't interpret this shift as money being transferred anywhere, so much as a systematic de-leveraging of investments.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deleveraging

Post reply on HN