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LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

businessinsider.com

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Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#441

Post by e40 »

song wrote: post #381
e40 wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I took it as waiting for the bottom and investing his cash, and seeing a big upswing. The real trick is starting at the bottom.

Yeah, that's what I wasn't sure about. Shorting is fine but it's also difficult to time right. And yeah guessing when it's the actual bottom is also not that self evident (at least for me). So I'm kind of curious to hear any anecdotes from users here profiting in 2008...

Timing is very difficult, I've been told over and over again. I personally think it's easier to time the top rather than the bottom. The reason: the fall is always preceded by lots and lots of people forecasting doom and gloom. I got out of Sun Microsystems stock (and some others) at the end of 1999 for that reason. Sold at $150+. Months later it was at $5. Now, I'm no prognosticator. I was looking to buy a house in the future and knew I needed to convert to cash at some point. So, I was sort of hyper aware of what was going on and at the end of 1999 I just couldn't take it anymore.

I'd love to hear how people timed the upswing from 2008.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#442

Post by noir_lord »

AlwaysRock wrote: post #285

request I use a Chrome extension that removed the ability to see the news feed on facebook called News Feed Eradicator. Since installing it I've saved a lot of time because I can still use Facebook messages and view groups that I am a part of but I don't get caught in the mindless scrolling trap. I would pay for a similar extension for linkedin. I have to use linkedin for work but I find myself scrolling mindlessly w…

Just add the classes/ID's to your adblock filters (very easy with ublock origin since you can just click the element and view the tree to find the element to nuke).

Done that on all newspapers and youtube to block comments, they hardly ever add anything.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#443

Post by frivoal »

gknoy wrote: post #132
rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if I bought "stock" in your job. I monitored your performance and set expectations for your work. You fail to meet those expectations, so as the majority shareholder of your job, I have you fired and replaced with someone else. Or you underperform once and I use this threat every single review. That's how Wall Street ruins good business.

Or, worse, you have a Really Damn Good Year, but I ding you at your performance review. Even though you were the best you've ever been, and better than your peers, you weren't quite as good as I was hoping you to be, so ... sorry, no raise this year.

On the other hand, you got the raise at the point where I started hoping you'd do great, even if you hadn't yet.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#444

Post by Casseres »

TuringNYC wrote: post #401
Casseres wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30% returns per month Care to share how you did that?

You will always hear stories like this. And they are true, but what you dont hear about are all the people who were not lucky enough to time the market and how much they lost.

Well said.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#445

Post by jrowley »

sinzone wrote: post #439
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

> 30% decline in bay area real estate values. that won't happen. During the 2008 big burst everywhere in USA was felling apart but in SF real-estate was just down 5%-10%. SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low. That won't change dramatically, with or without a collapse in the public market.

Exactly. Property values might not continue to grow at such a high rate but they aren't going to decrease by 30%. That's ludicrous.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#446

Post by lubos »

sinzone wrote: post #439
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

> 30% decline in bay area real estate values. that won't happen. During the 2008 big burst everywhere in USA was felling apart but in SF real-estate was just down 5%-10%. SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low. That won't change dramatically, with or without a collapse in the public market.

> SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low.

That might easily change.

If average salaries go down, people won't be able to afford pay rent they once used to. There will be less people living on their own and more people sharing with others. This will create oversupply of rental properties which means rent prices will go down.

If rent prices go down, property prices will go down too as property investors won't be able to justify holding a relatively expensive property yielding low rental returns. So they might as well put the property on the market creating more supply of properties for sale. Thus bursting the bubble.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#447

Post by ArkyBeagle »

pfarnsworth wrote: post #322
kuschku wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s probably even a too optimistic forecast. The readjustment of the market to reality is going to be a big issue, especially when one looks at just how many companies are operating at huge losses. Most people already know that it can’t continue like this. The good thing is, real estate values will decrease like the pay, so people can rent at cheaper rates in the bay areas. The bad thing is, those who have bought a…

Except the last time the markets dropped, real estate prices went up. If there is a problem, the Fed will drop interest rates, maybe even go negative, and that will cause bond rates and conceivably mortgage rates to drop as well. The Fed wants inflation, and most importantly home price inflation. They will do whatever it takes to stop deflation, they've already said this. Bernanke said he would drop bags of money out…

"The Fed" is not all one thing, and the majority of the members don't behave as if they want inflation. They want bank balance sheet stability.

The "helicopter" thing is a metaphor, not to be taken internally. The is a related action to be taken but it's not nearly as exciting as helicopters :)

I hope very much that you are correct, but I'm kinda droopy about the prospects, frankly.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#448

Post by ArkyBeagle »

sinzone wrote: post #439
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

> 30% decline in bay area real estate values. that won't happen. During the 2008 big burst everywhere in USA was felling apart but in SF real-estate was just down 5%-10%. SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low. That won't change dramatically, with or without a collapse in the public market.

SF and Texas is where the fugitive capital from the mortgage meltdown was running to. It's not about demand; it's about how many high rollers go bust.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#449

Post by yeukhon »

lubos wrote: post #446
sinzone wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30% decline in bay area real estate values. that won't happen. During the 2008 big burst everywhere in USA was felling apart but in SF real-estate was just down 5%-10%. SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low. That won't change dramatically, with or without a collapse in the public market.

> SF can't expand easily since it's water 3/4 all around. Demand still high and supply very low. That might easily change. If average salaries go down, people won't be able to afford pay rent they once used to. There will be less people living on their own and more people sharing with others. This will create oversupply of rental properties which means rent prices will go down. If rent prices go down, property prices…

SF is heavily relying on the high-tech, high salary population to sustain its high market value. So SF is always at risk of having market breakdown. But because giants like Google and Facebook have offices in SF, or near SF, as long as that population remain, SF market will survive, no matter what. If SF only relies on startup, SF will doom. Startup population, however, is dragging the price higher, so high that even the workers from the giant tech feel wallet drain, and that's really bad, because Google wouldn't pay everyone $200,000 annually, and even if Google does, only a handful of companies can, thus the market will bloat with a huge economic gap.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#450

Post by czep »

ryanSrich wrote: post #332
cpprototypes wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the bay area, I think compensation drop will be far worse. The base salary of bay area companies has never been that impressive. Even the big tech companies like Google and Facebook, base salary is not much more than other regions. The impressive compensation numbers are always because of bonus+RSU. These will probably be massively reduced or even eliminated completely if the tech downturn gets bad enough.

Tech employees making $200k+ are the only ones who can afford a $4k per month apartment in SF. If salaries drop then rent drops. I don't see this being a bad thing.

This is a huge misconception: tech is actually a small percentage of SF employment, especially at the high end. Those $4k+ rents are being paid by bankers and lawyers. It's still called the "Financial District" for a reason. The finance sector laughs at our $200k salaries. They are the ones inflating the rental market because a few k per month is a rounding error.
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