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LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

businessinsider.com

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Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#381

Post by song »

e40 wrote: post #361
winterchil wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he means he shorts the stock market... although it can be difficult to get the borrow when everything is tanking.

I took it as waiting for the bottom and investing his cash, and seeing a big upswing. The real trick is starting at the bottom.

Yeah, that's what I wasn't sure about. Shorting is fine but it's also difficult to time right. And yeah guessing when it's the actual bottom is also not that self evident (at least for me).

So I'm kind of curious to hear any anecdotes from users here profiting in 2008...

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#382

Post by fleitz »

e40 wrote: post #361
winterchil wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he means he shorts the stock market... although it can be difficult to get the borrow when everything is tanking.

I took it as waiting for the bottom and investing his cash, and seeing a big upswing. The real trick is starting at the bottom.

Do both

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#383

Post by dageshi »

jhulla wrote: post #353
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

Stop scaring the kiddos with your ghost stories. At least let them enjoy their weekend. The problem is shrinking global liquidity. Losses in the Chinese financial system and in the global energy sector are forcing governments, central banks and sovereign wealth funds to sell assets around the world. These are some of the biggest asset managers in the world. It is unclear to me how this will end. When the mortgage mar…

In terms of property, I wonder how much is being sold to foreign investors. This article came up recently about London

http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2016/02/04/opinion-is-th...

I give it more credence than the usual "property market correction incoming" because certain fundamentals have actually changed, oil is dirt cheap, China as you say is volatile having blown multiple bubbles and now dealing with the consequences.

Perhaps those who previously bought for investment purposes may need to liquidate?

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#384

Post by dasil003 »

dantillberg wrote: post #23
jacquesm wrote: post #9

Linkedin is a terrible company, I've always resisted making a profile there because I think that to support a company like that in name is to give them a free pass on their despicable behavior. No matter though, I still receive their spam on a daily basis, but that's nothing a filter rule can't take care of.

After quitting my full-time job and going independent(ish, for now) last year, I've sometimes regretted deleting my LinkedIn profile, as it's so commonly used for networking and searching for leads for job candidates. But I agree with you that it's a terrible, and it's why I deleted my profile. I didn't even know how creepy/skeevy their business model is then, but what I did see was that their product is just BAD in…

I object to calling out Craigslist on this basis. Sure I am a web developer and designer and can quickly eviscerate the usability of Craigslist just as anyone else here can.

However... Craigslist for all its fault is driven by an egalitarian vision. The ideology which prevents Craigslist from improving their UI and providing an API (or supporting scraping) is the same ideology which prevents them from taking massive investment, becoming beholden to investors, monetizing at any cost, and selling out the users in the process.

It's very easy to sit here and split that hair and so, "but no, I want them to just improve the UI, but also not sell out." It's very easy to create a laundry list of the way we wish others would behave, but it's also childish and unrealistic to expect the world to conform to our ideals, especially when we are distant and ignorant of the actual choices in front of the stakeholders.

Given the nature of what is going on in the Valley right now—eg. Twitter considered a failure because they only have 1/5th the userbase of Facebook, and nary a drop of ink spilled on its contribution to global conversation, all because we need to see how many dollars this thing can actually generate before we decide on whether its successful despite whatever world-changing qualities it may have—I think Craigslist is a wonderful company that more should take as an example.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#385

Post by grubles »

e40 wrote: post #361
winterchil wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he means he shorts the stock market... although it can be difficult to get the borrow when everything is tanking.

I took it as waiting for the bottom and investing his cash, and seeing a big upswing. The real trick is starting at the bottom.

Is it bad when I'm thinking of selling some bitcoin in order to take advantage of a volatile stock?

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#386

Post by jhulla »

Riod wrote: post #378
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

The biggest risk is actually China devaluing the yuan. They are reporting their forex reserves on Sunday. If the yuan gets devalued this year this means China starts to export deflation. One or 10 stocks losing 50% in value is not a big deal. The Fed needing to cut rates in the face of slowing growth would be an issue.

Both energy and China are the big risks. It'll be interesting to see how much of their foreign reserves were used up in January.

To some extent, it is easier for the Chinese to defend the on-shore yuan market (CNY) through capital controls. It is harder to defend in the off-shore yuan market (CNH). Great discussion from a few days ago here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11008872

I personally have tremendous admiration and respect for managers of the Chinese economy and I think betting against the Chinese government is just a money-losing, dumb idea.

IMHO, the big threat continues to be oil. Cheap dollar funding has pumped up global supply to well past demand. This is crushing the economies of oil-exporting nations through currency devaluation. Ruble, CAD$, Nigerian Naira, Krone, Bolivar, etc. have gotten crushed.

Developed Market banks and investors have poured a lot of money in emerging markets in the past decade. Some of that investment is going to be lost.

It is an open question whether we are working up to an event that is similar to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, 1998 Russian default, the 2012 European debt crisis, the 2008 Global financial crisis, or something milder, or something much worse.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#387

Post by ChuckMcM »

Riod wrote: post #378
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

The biggest risk is actually China devaluing the yuan. They are reporting their forex reserves on Sunday. If the yuan gets devalued this year this means China starts to export deflation. One or 10 stocks losing 50% in value is not a big deal. The Fed needing to cut rates in the face of slowing growth would be an issue.

This is going to be the most interesting question. China worked pretty hard to get the Yuan in the reserve currency basket, and they worked even harder to reassure the world after they pulled the devaluing stunt in August. From the WP article: "But the Chinese central bank argued on Tuesday that its goals were more mundane than spurring exports and growth. Rather, the bank said that the change was a one-time event to allow it to set exchange rates in line with free market practices. And in their initial responses, many analysts agreed."

If they do it again then they lose all credibility with the rest of the world. And how the world responded would change China's trajectory.

So its interesting to see what they do.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/08/11/china...

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#388

Post by sciencesama »

pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

thats fuked up can some one do something ? should it be stopped or should it be fueled ?

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#389

Post by draw_down »

es09 wrote: post #371
bkeroack wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Salaries tend to be sticky. A more likely outcome is the bottom ~25% of engineers being laid off or moved to contract status.

Even more likely - hiring comes to a screeching halt. That's what brings the rental market down. There are a lot of new apartments being added to the market and bam, oversupply of rental units if the hiring slows down or stops.

Just clarifying, are you speaking of SF, or the US more generally...?

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#390

Post by Riod »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #387
Riod wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest risk is actually China devaluing the yuan. They are reporting their forex reserves on Sunday. If the yuan gets devalued this year this means China starts to export deflation. One or 10 stocks losing 50% in value is not a big deal. The Fed needing to cut rates in the face of slowing growth would be an issue.

This is going to be the most interesting question. China worked pretty hard to get the Yuan in the reserve currency basket, and they worked even harder to reassure the world after they pulled the devaluing stunt in August. From the WP article: "But the Chinese central bank argued on Tuesday that its goals were more mundane than spurring exports and growth. Rather, the bank said that the change was a one-time event to…

Ironically getting that reserve currency status could be biting them in the ass in the short term. You need to have fairly free currency flows as part of the deal. Which means its tricky for them to impose capital controls now.
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