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LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

businessinsider.com

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Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#371

Post by es09 »

bkeroack wrote: post #324
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

Salaries tend to be sticky. A more likely outcome is the bottom ~25% of engineers being laid off or moved to contract status.

Even more likely - hiring comes to a screeching halt. That's what brings the rental market down. There are a lot of new apartments being added to the market and bam, oversupply of rental units if the hiring slows down or stops.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#372

Post by AJ007 »

justinclift wrote: post #363
stephenboyd wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I signed up, I made the mistake of giving LinkedIn access to my Gmail address book. Somehow this meant they actually had access to a list of every person I had ever e-mailed, even if only once. So ever since then, LinkedIn has been trying to trick me into sending invites to people I've never met who I've briefly inquired about sharing an apartment with, various administrators at the schools I attended, and women…

Hopefully you've learned something important about not giving your login credentials for any service, to another service. ;) [And yeah, I'm aware of people doing this for other services too, eg financial account management. Expecting they'll become further anecdotes later one... :(]

Keep an eye on mobile apps that steal your address book.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#373

Post by gech »

cmurf wrote: post #360
edgyswingset wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If salaries drop then rent drops. I don't see this being a bad thing. Maybe I'm being irrational, but I suspect that the drops won't be proportional and the housing isse in SF will just get worse.

Probably not, because people don't ask. In 2008 when I was living in NYC, I asked and received 10-15% year over year decreases in rent (3 years). Long time NYers thought I was crazy to even ask. Incredulous I got it. And this was in Manhattan, doorman building, a few blocks from Lehman Bros. So yeah ask. And be prepared to move. If you aren't prepared to move, you're not ready to save.

Just that simple folks.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#374

Post by corbett3000 »

The best possible long read article on the subject of what's happening in the markets and from a global macro economic POV is here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3860226-sell-stocks-risk-ass...

What we're seeing the the beginning of a massive deleveraging as excess debt gets worked out of the system. It's possible that asset classes of all kinds (including startup valuations, real estate, stocks etc.) are 30-50% above par value. We'll see...

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#375

Post by Swizec »

ryanSrich wrote: post #332
cpprototypes wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the bay area, I think compensation drop will be far worse. The base salary of bay area companies has never been that impressive. Even the big tech companies like Google and Facebook, base salary is not much more than other regions. The impressive compensation numbers are always because of bonus+RSU. These will probably be massively reduced or even eliminated completely if the tech downturn gets bad enough.

Tech employees making $200k+ are the only ones who can afford a $4k per month apartment in SF. If salaries drop then rent drops. I don't see this being a bad thing.

Eh, you exaggerate. Me and my girlfriend make about $160k together and we can afford[1] a $3.5k apartment in SF.

If we made $200k+ each, or if even just one of us did, $4k wouldn't even be worth thinking about.

[1] by "afford" I mean that there is money left at the end of the month.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#376

Post by Casseres »

nashashmi wrote: post #317
pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

I am getting giddy at the opportunity to making dumb stupid money again. It will be like 2008 with 30% returns per month. Oh how I miss those days!

> 30% returns per month

Care to share how you did that?

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#377

Post by username223 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #241
seanwilson wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For what it's worth I have a Facebook account and have all the email notification settings off and can't remember seeing an email from Facebook in over a year.

I noticed that when I stopped checking my Facebook account, Facebook started sending me FOMO messages ("Hey! You have messages! People are saying things! Please come look!")

I noticed them doing that as well, and did what I usually do with companies that get too chatty: First, turn off the notifications, unsubscribe, etc. Then, if they ignore my preferences or keep adding new categories of notification that are enabled by default, I add a client-side rule to throw away everything they send. This way they get to keep thinking that I receive their spam, and I don't have to see it, which is a win-win (though a sad loss for email in general as an obsessively reliable communication system).

This worked out fine for Facebook: I visit their webpage when I want to know what's going on over there, and they never send me email.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#378

Post by Riod »

pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

The biggest risk is actually China devaluing the yuan. They are reporting their forex reserves on Sunday. If the yuan gets devalued this year this means China starts to export deflation. One or 10 stocks losing 50% in value is not a big deal. The Fed needing to cut rates in the face of slowing growth would be an issue.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#379

Post by xlayn »

First Twitter, and now Linked In. I've called unicorns and specially those without business model a bubble.

What we are looking is a shift...

  -Happened from real state to oil
  -Oil to IT unicorns
Now the question is where is the money being transferred to? I'm still wondering how has Facebook done to avoid all this happening to them.

Re: LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value

#380

Post by CamperBob2 »

pyrrhotech wrote: post #312

A lot of people hating on LNKD here, but this isn't really company-specific. This is a macro shift. LNKD being down by 40% by only guiding down 8% below estimates is a big warning of how the market is about to treat all bloated growth stocks. In 2013, if they reported the same results, the stock would have been flat or slightly down. It's a major shift in investor sentiment. Bubble bursts always start in the public m…

I'm expecting a 30-40% decline in S&P 500, 30% decline in bay area real estate values, 30% of bay area "well-funded" startups going bust, and 25% reduction in market rate pay for software engineers over the next 2 years

And by expecting, you mean investing accordingly?

Hopefully that will turn out to be a gloomy forecast, but it's best to prepare for the worst.

Actually, it's not. Being right at the wrong time is arguably the worst kind of "wrong" you can be. It doesn't pay to be the only sane guy in the asylum.

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