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Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

nytimes.com

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Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#171

Post by toomuchtodo »

spyspy wrote: post #80
Hermel wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The irony of this approach is that the lower interest rates are, the more people need to save to reach their retirement goals. If this effect is stronger than the incentive to borrow and invest, low interest rates might actually curb consumption.

Saving for retirement using a savings account hasn't been a viable strategy in decades (at least in the US). People need to be encouraged to invest a significant portion of their money in other securities, and know that in the long term, they'll be much better off for it.

> People need to be encouraged to invest a significant portion of their money in other securities, and know that in the long term, they'll be much better off for it.

Until equities and other securities no longer provide the return needed for long term wealth accumulation.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#172

Post by djsumdog »

laotzu wrote: post #97
HSO wrote: post #86

Those who think Japan is unique in its condition and/or that the answer to its problems is more of the same old "advice" as proffered by standard issue economists and business types might profit from Robert Gordon's recently published "American Growth". (paper version: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18315.pdf ) At least, it can offer a different, longer-term perspective on the issues. It's not impossible that we will lo…

Growth for the sake of growth is cancer

Exactly, you cannot have infinite growth. Consumerism and planned obsolescence depend on ever expanding growth.

Why can't we just have...enough? Why don't we create things that last decades instead of years? We can scale down, consume less, pollute less. We could have fewer factories that produce higher quality products. We could pay people more. We could have a minimum income so we'd get more art and entertainment instead of useless plastic shit.

It's not possible because our current heavily capitalistic world view is ingrained so deeply in the minds of everyone in high income countries.

I've mentioned it before, but Debt: The First 5,000 Years is an incredible book that goes into the history of money, debt and slavery. It's a life-changing book.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#173

Post by Nadya »

Amezarak wrote: post #155
Adam_O wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thinking out loud.. the Olympics in 2020 will be a good chance to showcase the country as an attractive destination, not just for tourism. They could loosen their immigration policy to coincide with the timeline. It would still be tricky because as a society Japan is famously homogeneous, so the idea of diversity would have to be phased in slowly.. but it could be a starting point. In the end it's about adaptation to…

> In the end it's about adaptation to ensure a future for the country. I think that most Japanese would believe that a future Japan that wasn't majority Japanese was no future at all. From the nationalist perspective, you're essentially saying "to save Japanese society we must destroy Japanese society." To these people Japan is more than just an island, it is Japanese.

I really can't agree with you enough. What's troubling though is that any ideas of nationalism are often confused with extreme right-wing or jingoism, largely (and possibly rightfully) due to history. So it sounds bad to even say Japan is a nationalistic society.

But you've hit the nail on the head - and it is something many foreigners have little to no concept of. Being proud of one's cultural heritage and history. Even if that means recognizing the bad stains on the tapestry.

I've recognized the ones who have the worst problem with nationalism are those who are completely full of guilt of their own culture/history.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#174

Post by pasquinelli »

adrianN wrote: post #2

Can someone explain to me why both cheap oil and expensive oil seem to be bad for the economy? Back when oil was >$100 per barrel everybody seemed to blame the weak economy on expensive oil. Now somehow very cheap oil is also a bad thing.

i think it isn't that cheap oil is bad for the economy but that cheap oil can be a sign of a bad economy, one where the destruction for the demand for energy has outstripped what should ought to be a tight supply.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#175

Post by api_or_ipa »

djsumdog wrote: post #172
laotzu wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Growth for the sake of growth is cancer

Exactly, you cannot have infinite growth. Consumerism and planned obsolescence depend on ever expanding growth. Why can't we just have...enough? Why don't we create things that last decades instead of years? We can scale down, consume less, pollute less. We could have fewer factories that produce higher quality products. We could pay people more. We could have a minimum income so we'd get more art and entertainment i…

Unlimited growth in capital is impossible, see the Solow growth model taught in intermediate macro classes the world over. Growth in human capital, education, productivity and ultimately technology is much harder to analyze. On one hand, these things are subject to decay similar to capital depreciation; on the other, we've escaped every Malthusian catastrophe through innovation and technological growth.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#176

Post by bigmanwalter »

SolaceQuantum wrote: post #137
vetinari wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism could be indirectly responsible. One of the causes why people postpone having children is financial insecurity. In their mid-twenties they cannot afford to have a home, they are unable to secure the costs of first few years of raising child, when they don't know if they will have a job in three months and they have zero savings. Add student loans to the mix, popular desires to travel the world, to "live" a…

Does Japan have the same issues with student loans and such that USA might have? Otherwise, thank you for the explanation and I do apologize for my ignorance. (Also, I'm still confused about the feminism thing)

I think he meant the whole thing where women can now decide if the want to keep the baby or not.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#177

Post by ido »

guard-of-terra wrote: post #117
xyzzy4 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or ban birth control, abortion, porn, and have more arranged marriages.

Do you have even one case where this has worked? You can outright drown your horse but even that won't necessarily make it drink. Making people miserable is rarely a good strategy unless you're building ISIS.

I believe Communist Romania tried something like that to devastating effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decree_770

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#178

Post by hackuser »

phkahler wrote: post #111
HSO wrote: post #86

Those who think Japan is unique in its condition and/or that the answer to its problems is more of the same old "advice" as proffered by standard issue economists and business types might profit from Robert Gordon's recently published "American Growth". (paper version: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18315.pdf ) At least, it can offer a different, longer-term perspective on the issues. It's not impossible that we will lo…

>> It's not impossible that we will look back in 20 years and see Japan not as some sort of failure but simply as the first society that had to learn to live without growth. They still haven't learned, they're trying really really hard to force growth. Negative interest rates can be seen as a tax on inactivity, and while it's been talked about in the US, I think it comes too close to taxing assets for the rich to emb…

> I think it comes too close to taxing assets for the rich to embrace it.

What's wrong with taxing assets (wealth)? I don't know the full economic implications, but I think it may be more fair than taxing income. Wealth is a much better measure of a person's financial strength. Consider:

* Because we tax income, a person with $1 billion in assets who makes $100,000 pays less tax than a person with $0 assets and makes $150,000.

* Because we tax income, a person who loses all their assets in the housing collapse but earns $100,000 pays more tax than the person whose assets appreciate $1 million but earns only $50,000 in income.

* If we tax wealth, future taxes are much more predictable, enabling more efficient long-term investment and planning. I could make a pretty good guess about what my tax bill will be next year, 5 years from now, etc. The billionaire can make much longer-term projections.

As a rough estimate of the wealth tax rate: One estimate of total wealth in the US is $80 trillion and the federal government takes in ~$3 trillion in revenue. By those numbers, the wealth tax rate would be 3.75% for the average American, if all that revenue were replaced by a wealth tax.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#179

Post by danans »

danans wrote: post #136
VLM wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is a Japan without any Japanese people still Japan? Culturally would modern Japanese tolerate a cultural mass suicide or did that go out of style at the end of WW2? USA has been talked into it, but would that work on modern Japanese? Meanwhile there's a weird undercurrent of racism, if we just take Japan 2016 and person for person swap out for obviously superior foreigners (imperialism?) then magically everything is…

Why would a slightly more open immigration policy result in a Japan without any Japanese people? Nobody is proposing Schengen-agreement style open borders, anyways. The culturally (and racially) homogeneous state is a myth. Even the Japan you might perceive as homogeneous is the result of many waves of migration stretching to pre-history (Jomon, Ainu, Yayoi, Chinese...) Places that have relatively open borders (EU, U…

If you're going to downvote, you should provide an explanation.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#180

Post by guard-of-terra »

danans wrote: post #179
danans wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would a slightly more open immigration policy result in a Japan without any Japanese people? Nobody is proposing Schengen-agreement style open borders, anyways. The culturally (and racially) homogeneous state is a myth. Even the Japan you might perceive as homogeneous is the result of many waves of migration stretching to pre-history (Jomon, Ainu, Yayoi, Chinese...) Places that have relatively open borders (EU, U…

If you're going to downvote, you should provide an explanation.

You're compounding multiple weak statements together, making responding to them all infeasible, people downvote and move on.
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