The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness • Hacker News Board

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#121

Post by sbardle » Sun, Jan 31, 2016, 12:56 PM UTC

RobertoG wrote: post #93

sbardle wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Central banks are the problem. They have destabalised the global economy by constantly lowering interest rates and creating asset bubbles to promote the illusion of growth. Central bankers are politically appointed in many cases so they have no interest in cooling an economy. It messes up the business cycle and creates the conditions for even bigger booms and busts. Alternative currencies like Bitcoin will rise in po…

Central banks and automatic stabilizers are what have avoided a bigger crisis this time. That doesn't mean that monetary policy is the right solution. The right solution is fiscal policy (government spending) but this is not happening because politics is dominated by crazy ideas about austerity and fiscal balances.

I'm not so sure. Central banks helped cause the 08 crisis by lowering interest rates after 9/11 and encouraging a housing bubble. Their response to the 08 crisis (bailing out the banks, ultra-low interest rates, QE) may have laid the ground for an even bigger crisis further down the road. All this is good news for alternative currencies IMO.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#122

Post by slv77 » Sun, Jan 31, 2016, 11:42 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #110

slv77 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of those oversized cash accounts can be explained by corporate tax structures that hold cash overseas in subsidiaries. Repatriation of that cash would incur significant penalties. Pundits also suggest that shareholders who should be the beneficiaries of the cash through dividends are content to let CEO's and boards invest the cash for them due to a lack of other compelling investment opportunities. Cynics might…

That is certainly a big part of it. But fundamentally it is idle capital. Why doesn't Apple build a German development center? I'm sure they could fill it with solid engineers and they could make it close to the auto centers and put their self driving electric car project there. Or pretty much anywhere in the EU. No need to repatriate funds if you can invest them in the area where they are already sitting and repatri…

I'd be surprised if there was a large contingent of unemployed machine learning specialist sitting idle in Germany waiting for Apples investment dollars to unleash them. A billion dollars or even ten billion won't materilize the required skills in the requisite time.

An economist suggests this is an example of a skills mismatch.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#123

Post by Gravityloss » Mon, Feb 01, 2016, 2:18 PM UTC

brc wrote: post #119

Gravityloss wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's is some government spending that has to be done anyway, but can be shifted in time so it's done when there's a recession. Things like bridge rebuilding or warships. Of course, if you're in recession for 8 years, you start running out of such things.

But if something is worth doing, it's worth doing now. If you had an idea for a great startup, you wouldn't wait for a few years. You'd do it as soon as it was ready.

Not necessarily. Hypothetical of two alternatives:

1. Do a small renovation to a bridge and it will stay usable for five more years, or

2. Do something more comprehensive (teardown + rebuild), after which you don't have to do anything for 20 years

If there's a temporary high in building costs, it makes sense to do 1. If there's a temporary low, it makes sense to do 2.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#124

Post by ChrisArchitect » Mon, Feb 01, 2016, 4:17 PM UTC

codingdave wrote: post #99

floppydisk wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best indicator for anything transportation is utilization and how much stuff is actually being moved. Not just the price of moving something from A --> B. Yes, the presence of more movers, as the article points out, suppresses the price because people are competing to offer the lowest possible price to get the business. And, shippers did start investing in new builds extensively when it looked like the economy wa…

You can also infer how much is being moved (on a very broad scale) in the US by the on-time record of Amtrak. They do not own the rails, and yield to any freight trains. When less freight is being moved, their on-time records improve.

Interesting point of the day. love that

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#125

Post by SixSigma » Mon, Feb 01, 2016, 7:06 PM UTC

brc wrote: post #115

SixSigma wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But building / updating bridges, roads, rail networks, dams, lead water pipes etc. would have the side effect of being useful to the economy once built / updated.

This is a critical point. No they are not. Where I live billions and billions was spent on water infrastructure. No actual improvements in supply were made- no additional catchments were built, because dams == bad. The money was spent in pipelines and a desalination plant that has never - and I mean never - been switched on. It's 5 years old and has never output water, because the cost is too high compared to dam wat…

well, obviously they have to be well planned and wise