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The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

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Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#31
post #21
post #4

The world economy is dominated by people in governments who believe that printing money, burying it and paying people to dig it up again will increase the amount of trucks built and goods shipped. No amount of failure of this theory will be enough for it to be abandoned, because it has a certain amount of truthiness to it, and it excuses profligate and wasteful behaviour. Both these things are fun and buy votes. The…

No economists believe that ridiculous straw man nor is it relevant to this article.

Many do. Not the sectarian economists hired to develop capitalist theology, but the ones you take seriously when you need to run a real capitalist economy. Here's a lucid explanation:

"If you take an economics course, they’ll teach you, correctly, that if the government spends n dollars to stimulate the economy, it doesn’t really matter what it’s spent on: they can build jet planes, they can bury it in the sand and get people to dig for it, they can build roads and houses, they can do all sorts of things—in terms of stimulating the economy, the economic effects are not all that different.² In fact, it’s perfectly likely that military spending is actually a less efficient stimulus than social spending, for all kinds of reasons. But the problem is, spending for civilian purposes has negative side effects. For one thing, it interferes with managerial prerogatives. The money that’s funneled through the Pentagon system is just a straight gift to the corporate manager, it’s like saying, “I’ll buy anything you produce, and I’ll pay for the research and development, and if you can make any profits, fine.” From the point of view of the corporate manager, that’s optimal. But if the government started producing anything that business might be able to sell directly to the commercial market, then it would be interfering with corporate profit-making. Production of waste—of expensive, useless machinery—is not an interference: nobody else is going to produce B-2 bombers, right? So that’s one point."

— Noam Chomsky, "Understanding Power"

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#32
post #16
post #10

Obviously oil price has 0 correlation with cost of shipping.

A rule of thumb is trucking spends 1/3 on fuel, more efficient rail spends 1/4 on fuel. Shipping is even more efficient, so its likely under 1/4 total costs. (edited to emphasize that if fuel cost magically dropped to zero, costs could not drop more than perhaps 20%. And fuel has dropped, but not to magical zero) Capex and maintenance are expensive.

All great points. Thing is you just provided additional support to the idea that premise in the article is flawed :) Volume would be a much more important indicator.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#33
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why zoom out and lose the fidelity? So people who don't actually pay any attention to the axes/labels/etc. can walk away with a slightly better understand of the graph with their casual glance than they otherwise would have?

They won't walk away with better understanding, they'll walk away with worse. It's better to not understand a graph at all than to be mislead by it.

That's a stupid highbrow attitude. I suppose the same concept applies to any form of information? If we don't understand the whole story, it's not worth knowing any part of it?

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#34
post #21
post #4

The world economy is dominated by people in governments who believe that printing money, burying it and paying people to dig it up again will increase the amount of trucks built and goods shipped. No amount of failure of this theory will be enough for it to be abandoned, because it has a certain amount of truthiness to it, and it excuses profligate and wasteful behaviour. Both these things are fun and buy votes. The…

No economists believe that ridiculous straw man nor is it relevant to this article.

"If we discovered that, you know, space aliens were planning to attack and we needed a massive buildup to counter the space alien threat and really inflation and budget deficits took secondary place to that, this slump would be over in 18 months," he said. "And then if we discovered, oops, we made a mistake, there aren't any aliens, we'd be better--"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/15/paul-krugman-fake-a...

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#35
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No economists believe that ridiculous straw man nor is it relevant to this article.

Many do. Not the sectarian economists hired to develop capitalist theology, but the ones you take seriously when you need to run a real capitalist economy. Here's a lucid explanation: "If you take an economics course, they’ll teach you, correctly, that if the government spends n dollars to stimulate the economy, it doesn’t really matter what it’s spent on: they can build jet planes, they can bury it in the sand and g…

Funnily enough Chomsky is implicitly assuming that government spending has a crowding out effect, which is an idea popular with economists who are "hired to develop capitalist theology," as you label them.

But, probably not. Even "social spending" opens up lots of procurement opportunities for the corporate manager. There might be some crowding out in real terms (government having political authority to exclude activity it deems to be an interference), but it'll be offset by the likely benefits of ensuing expansion, corporate welfare grants and workforce mobilization.

The problem with Chomsky here and many others is that they have the causality backwards. They see corporations as evil entities that spontaneously emerged from the ground to usurp the state, when in fact they were explicitly cultivated by states looking for economic growth.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#36
post #9

There are other reasons why Baltic Dry Index is falling - new megaships are reducing shipping costs. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/11/20/dont-aban...

Indeed. You can measure boat and rail traffic, but what about the digital economy?

http://www.aei.org/publication/its-official-a-lost-decade-fo... : "One potential explanation that reconciles these observations is that structural changes in the US economy may have resulted in a statistical understatement of real GDP growth. There are several possible areas of concern, but the rapid growth of software and digital content—where quality-adjusted prices and real output are much harder to measure than in most other sectors—seems particularly important."

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#37
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No economists believe that ridiculous straw man nor is it relevant to this article.

Many do. Not the sectarian economists hired to develop capitalist theology, but the ones you take seriously when you need to run a real capitalist economy. Here's a lucid explanation: "If you take an economics course, they’ll teach you, correctly, that if the government spends n dollars to stimulate the economy, it doesn’t really matter what it’s spent on: they can build jet planes, they can bury it in the sand and g…

  they’ll teach you, correctly, that if the government
  spends n dollars to stimulate the economy, it doesn’t
  really matter what it’s spent on
Forgive my ignorance on these matters - I know that if the government pays a work crew the work crew ends up with money in their pockets regardless of what specifically they build; but surely if you pay a work crew to build a useful freeway or a bridge (or a rail system if you prefer) you also get the economic benefits of that freeway, bridge or railway; whereas if you pay the same work crew to dig a useless hole you don't get those economic benefits?

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won't walk away with better understanding, they'll walk away with worse. It's better to not understand a graph at all than to be mislead by it.

That's a stupid highbrow attitude. I suppose the same concept applies to any form of information? If we don't understand the whole story, it's not worth knowing any part of it?

It's disinformation. It's like when the meteorologist shows a map of temperatures across the region, not mentioning it is the 'feels like' temperature, an arguably useless and misleading number made up of the actual temperature and the wind speed. Just tell me the temperature and wind speed - let me be the judge of what it 'feels like'. Maybe I wear a windbreaker.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#39
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No economists believe that ridiculous straw man nor is it relevant to this article.

Many do. Not the sectarian economists hired to develop capitalist theology, but the ones you take seriously when you need to run a real capitalist economy. Here's a lucid explanation: "If you take an economics course, they’ll teach you, correctly, that if the government spends n dollars to stimulate the economy, it doesn’t really matter what it’s spent on: they can build jet planes, they can bury it in the sand and g…

But building / updating bridges, roads, rail networks, dams, lead water pipes etc. would have the side effect of being useful to the economy once built / updated.
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