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Request For Research: Basic Income

blog.ycombinator.com

391–400 of 1001 posts

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#391

I can't take this seriously. >(Questions about how a program like this would affect overall cost of living are beyond our scope, but obviously important.) No, that's not just "obviously important". It's practically the ONLY thing that's important. If basic income raises the cost of living to the point where it negates the effect of having it, then basic income is meaningless. Here's your study. 1) Bring one piece of…

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Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#392
post #163
post #44

I'm very skeptical of basic income as commonly understood. The typical basic income program I've seen goes something like this: give every person in the country $10k to live on, no strings attached. [a] 1) As defined above, this is horribly inefficient and expensive. I, a software engineer in Silicon Valley, would receive this $10k. How does this benefit society? I already make over $100k; I don't need additional inc…

1.) We'd have to implement it so that starting somewhere on the pay scale, taxes increase so that by some point you pay back to full $10k you received. Naively: $25k income you pay back $1000 of the $10k in taxes at $50k, pay back $2500, etc. That way you, making over $100k, essentially get $0 basic income by the end of the year. 2.) You probably have to say "everyone over 18 gets $10k, each child up to 3 per family…

> Naively: $25k income you pay back $1000 of the $10k in taxes at $50k, pay back $2500, etc. That way you, making over $100k, essentially get $0 basic income by the end of the year.

If I recall correctly about 50k is median income for the working population, so you're still paying most of your population at least $5000. And that's just the currently working population, there are so many non-working adults who will also want the free money, I can envision the divorces being had for an extra $10k right now... the incentives this creates are very bad.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#393
post #3

It's worth reading about the Canadian experiments with basic income in the 1970s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mincome http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/colby-cosh-what-th... The experiment allowed households to opt out, and after a while most did. However this result is convoluted by the fact that the income was not inflation indexed, and inflation rates in Canada in the 1970s got quite high. The main concl…

Or New Zealand's research into the feasibility of implementing UBI:

http://igps.victoria.ac.nz/WelfareWorkingGroup/Downloads/Wor...

Key takeaways:

"An income of $300 per week is just over the average (mean) benefit income – therefore a plausible minimum income. However, paying a guaranteed income of $300 per week to every New Zealander aged 16 years and over, excluding superannuitants, comes at considerable fiscal cost. The fiscal cost of the GMI proposed in the first model (Model 1) is $44.5 billion (including the cost of all social transfers – in particular, New Zealand Superannuation payments, would cost $55.5 billion), requiring a flat personal tax rate of approximately 45.4%. Note that this tax rate and the others considered below are cost-neutral – not fiscally neutral – as personal taxes currently raise approximately $6 billion in excess of current social assistance costs."

"Although the Gini coefficient improves under all models, many beneficiaries (including the disabled, carers and sole parents) currently receive more than $300 per week and would be made financially worse off under a GMI scheme. Therefore the GMIs considered could distribute money away from those most in need of government assistance and toward those who have choices and opportunities but choose not to work."

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#394
Additionally, I wonder if basic income can be effective while there are still shitty jobs. Right now, somebody has to clean the toilets, because there aren't yet robots that can do it cheaply enough.

If you introduce basic income so that nobody has to do the shitty job, nobody will do it.

But one day there will be robots that can clean the toilets, and then there will be no shitty jobs left to do - and perhaps only then can basic income take hold.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#395
post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether I agree or not with this (mostly, I don't), it fails my test of "being something a startup can do". Whereas a startup that had a really good solution for inculcating the kinds of skills and values white-collar employers are looking for could outcompete universities instead of legislating them out of the picture. When people discuss the value signaling provided by elite universities, their first example is usu…

Agreed. Though sometimes we're trying to tech-fix things which are broken on a whole different level. Education is effectively free today. You pay to get the certificate. I think that's a broken system.

I agree that it's a broken system. But when systems are broken because of egregious market inefficiencies, as in the case for "pay $150k for a certificate from a university" case, I think you have an opportunity to make a large amount of money while improving the world. Things that can make large amounts of money can be funded by the markets, rather than requiring legislative fixes.

(I am not opposed to legislative fixes! I'm a statist liberal Democrat. I'm confining my response to the terms 'sama set out.)

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the reason people are suffering now is the level of monetary inflation I don't think any respectable economist actually agrees with you on that. The increase in the monetary base during QE was paired with a collapse in the money multiplier. Most of that cash stayed in reserve at banks (see 'Repeat After Me: Banks Cannot And Do Not "Lend Out" Reserves'). Price inflation is nowhere in sight; inflation is below histor…

Depends on which inflation figure you count. When I think of inflation, I think of the largest costs first -- housing, which can easily be 30 to 50% of your earnings for most people. Check out the Housing Price Index -- does that look flat to you? http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-...

Well as house prices have shot up, interest rates have come down, so the cost of servicing a typical mortgage might be flat.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#397
Start with reducing the costs of basic needs. Shelter - micro apts, container based Lots of regulations make this problematic in short term.

Food - Basic nutritious food should be cheaper. Currently, cheap food is not nutritious or that cheap. Even Soylent costs $2.83 and many do not consider that food. A meal should cost less than $1. - 2 ways that I have been mulling * Automation for on demand food * Mass production of simple meals.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#398
I don't think we can have the conversation about basic income without having the conversation about currency.

Right now the government has basic(or really much more than basic) income . . . it can create the money it needs to do what it wants. And this trickles down from the President and the Speaker of the House to the foot soldier and the mailman.

This is a feature of the monetary system and it is only challenged in rare, extreme, or politically charged cases.

Perhaps we should think about innovating the currency to provide basic income to citizens rather than to the state.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#399

"send them a cheque for $10,000 and increase their taxes by ~$10,000" which (suprise) just wastes people's time and money.

Replace "cheque" with "direct deposit" and what time is wasted? You have to do taxes every year anyways. And what little time is wasted is offset by the sense of security that $200/week is going into your bank account every week like clockwork no matter happens to you or your job.

I take issue with the idea that government should use violence to take from some people and give to others, the "You have to" (or we throw you on a cage or worse) is the problem.

The money and time wasted is the huge infrastructure to enforce the ever growing list of restrictions.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is key. No one has ever said "I'm going to stop making money because I have $1."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marginal_utility At $1 the second dollar is useful, at $50,000, I'm good for the year and will not pursue additional dollars. Replace $50,000 with whatever amount you need to feel content.

That's nice and all, but no one is going to feel content at basic income.
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