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Request For Research: Basic Income

blog.ycombinator.com

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Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#71

Post by [deleted] »

harryh wrote: post #37
dmix wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does your "US population" number include people <18yrs old, people receiving social security, and people who volunteer to not receive their basic income payment? They should be exempt from your calculation...

Yes. Since you brought it up I can provide those numbers too: Total US population ~= 319M Under 18 population ~= 73M Over 65 population ~= 46M --------------------------- Remainder ~= 200M No data on volunteering not to receive, though I don't know many people who pay more taxes than they're required to so I'm guessing that number would be pretty small.

[deleted]

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#72

Post by dmix »

harryh wrote: post #37
dmix wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does your "US population" number include people <18yrs old, people receiving social security, and people who volunteer to not receive their basic income payment? They should be exempt from your calculation...

Yes. Since you brought it up I can provide those numbers too: Total US population ~= 319M Under 18 population ~= 73M Over 65 population ~= 46M --------------------------- Remainder ~= 200M No data on volunteering not to receive, though I don't know many people who pay more taxes than they're required to so I'm guessing that number would be pretty small.

So $2T not $3.2T. When compared to social security, it's not that bad:

> In 2015, over 59 million Americans will receive almost $870 billion in Social Security benefits.

Therefore basic income would be about 2.3x the cost of social security but 3.4x as many people would benefit.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#73

Post by samstave »

Zikes wrote: post #57
samstave wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that number is misleading. I have a spouse and three children. Does that mean we all will get 10K/yr? I have had a different thought on this in the past; Every child born should have $10K put into an account in their name on the day they are born. It will gain interest and grow until they are 18, then they get the money. And as an adult after 21, they are taxed at some rate to pay back the initial 10K that will t…

How much would that $10k grow in 18 years? Bank of America's "Platinum Honors" interest rate is 0.06%[1], and over 18 years of compounding interest that's only $10,108.55 unless I've messed up my math. [1] https://www.bankofamerica.com/deposits/bank-account-interest...

Put them into a larger bucket together, a "kids 401K" type of thing.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#74

Post by [deleted] »

notliketherest wrote: post #13

When I talk with people about basic income, my gut reaction and primary argument is that it contrasts with that fundamental human nature that's been show time and again throughout humanity - given a guaranteed, fixed reward no matter how much or how little you work for it, disincentivizes work. It follows along the same lines as why government instituted communism fails. Or why the first version of the mayflower comp…

[deleted]

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#75

Post by BinaryIdiot »

marcell wrote: post #44

I'm very skeptical of basic income as commonly understood. The typical basic income program I've seen goes something like this: give every person in the country $10k to live on, no strings attached. [a] 1) As defined above, this is horribly inefficient and expensive. I, a software engineer in Silicon Valley, would receive this $10k. How does this benefit society? I already make over $100k; I don't need additional inc…

I've always heard it pitched as some sort of sliding scale. Basically you'd get a certain amount based on your level of current employment but it doesn't require many of the checks Welfare has. I've also seen people say doing a basic income then eliminate food stamps and welfare and it ends up being a cost savings.

It sounds good in theory that this very odd system of income could end up _saving_ us money, but I don't actually know if that's true and is probably highly dependent on whatever scale is used when deciding how much basic income a person receives.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#76

Post by forrestthewoods »

Bernie Sanders at the recent town hall meeting asked for someone to tell a story of their struggles. A woman in tears told of how hard it was to get by on $10k to $12k a year.

It makes me wonder. How happy will people who only get basic income be? How easy or difficult will it be for them to get simple work for a little extra income?

Now there is a big difference in getting $10k for free vs scraping it together from 4 different crappy jobs. But still I wonder. I came away from that story less confident in basic income that I previously was.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#78

Post by cryoshon »

marcell wrote: post #44

I'm very skeptical of basic income as commonly understood. The typical basic income program I've seen goes something like this: give every person in the country $10k to live on, no strings attached. [a] 1) As defined above, this is horribly inefficient and expensive. I, a software engineer in Silicon Valley, would receive this $10k. How does this benefit society? I already make over $100k; I don't need additional inc…

I'm also a bit skeptical, which is why there is a need for experimentation on the topic.

Aside from that:

1. You'd have the freedom to quit your job without fearing homelessness or hunger. Suddenly, you're a lot less stressed.

2. We are wasting trillions on making new fighter jets or new wars we don't need, surely we can cut those programs and then spare a few trillion for something more useful.

3. An open question, I think. The guidelines for poverty would likely have to be open to change in order for a UBI to work.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#79

Post by samstave »

bobby_9x wrote: post #34
samstave wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that number is misleading. I have a spouse and three children. Does that mean we all will get 10K/yr? I have had a different thought on this in the past; Every child born should have $10K put into an account in their name on the day they are born. It will gain interest and grow until they are 18, then they get the money. And as an adult after 21, they are taxed at some rate to pay back the initial 10K that will t…

What will stop people from having multiple kids, just to get the $10K/child windfall?

Only the social security number holder at 18 has access to the funds. I don't think it would be too hard to include methods to prevent abuse. I may too idealistic.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#80

Post by dsp1234 »

harryh wrote: post #4

$10,000 * US_POPULATION ~= $3.2T ~= The total annual tax revenue of the US federal government. Something to keep in mind when discussing this topic.

Note that the about 23% of the population is under 18 (possibly zero or reduced BI), and 14.5% is 65 or older (possibly offset by SS).

Also, since the census is tasked with counting all people in the united states, it also includes non-citizen long-term visitors and illegal (or undocumented) immigrants.

So it's not quite as simple as latest census count * 10k. It's still quite a lot though.

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