Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#101

Post by nandemo » Mon, Jan 25, 2016, 4:57 PM UTC

lmm wrote: post #90

nandemo wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exaggerate much? Tokyo might not have the SV's startup "scene" but apart from funding, it has pretty much all infrastructure a software startup needs, just like any large city in a developed country does: fast, reliable internet connection, a functioning legal system, and enough qualified labor. Generally speaking, Tokyo is considerably cheaper than San Francisco or NYC at the current exchange rate (rather, at the ex…

> Tokyo might not have the SV's startup "scene" but apart from funding, it has pretty much all infrastructure a software startup needs, just like any large city in a developed country does: fast, reliable internet connection, a functioning legal system, and enough qualified labor. I was trying to pre-empt "San Francisco is just as expensive as Tokyo". Yes it is, but it has a lot of startup-specific infrastructure tha…

> If you just want the things you list, you can go somewhere much cheaper than Tokyo (e.g. central US, northern/western Europe - as you say, any large city in a developed country will do)

Right, I'm not claiming Tokyo is the best place for startups. Just that there's an investment opportunity (I was going to say "arbitrage" but that's too strong as it implies risklessness).

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#102

Post by simonh » Mon, Jan 25, 2016, 5:02 PM UTC

crdoconnor wrote: post #87

simonh wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Productive companies and organisations generate demand for the things they need in order to be productive. Unproductive ones generate less demand per worker. Yes those workers still need to pay for things, but if they are sitting around at work not doing much their work activity is a waste. Building a bridge to nowhere only creates demand for concrete and steel and goods for the workers. A useful heavily used bridge…

Actually, "efficient" factories that don't face competitive pressures (i.e. that don't drop their prices) will have a lower multiplier. Money spent on wages gets spent and circulated within the economy at a higher rate than money that is diverted towards profits (which tends to bid up the value of fixed assets in a demand constrained environment). >the inefficient one consumes money that could otherwise be invested i…

There's no particular reason to assume that a more productive business will be more profitable than a subsidised one. That's a completely separate question.

If industry is more efficient, the Japanese people don't need to spend more. The same rate of spending will buy more goods and services, supporting more production by more businesses, generating more demand.

You can't get away from the fact that the same amount of money spent on production by a more efficient company generates more demand for the things that company needs in order to produce. Production by capital-consuming activities by its nature generates demand.

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#103

Post by mastax » Mon, Jan 25, 2016, 7:38 PM UTC

lumpypua wrote: post #58

superuser2 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's prices need to fall by at least 75% before Detroit has anything to worry about.

The infrastructure/economies of scale to make that profitable don't exist yet, but Tesla is working at setting them up. Elon Musk: "Model 3, our smaller and lower cost sedan will start production in about 2 years. Fully operational Gigafactory needed." http://www.techinsider.io/we-now-know-when-teslas-cheaper-mo... Two things are at play: 1. Tesla doesn't really give a crap about owning the entire market. If their co…

>Tesla doesn't really give a crap about owning the entire market. If their competition causes the big 3 to build low cost zero-emissions vehicles, then Tesla has fulfilled their part of Elon's goals towards saving the world.

Elon might not care, but as a publicly traded company Tesla is not going to say 'Mission Accomplished' and close up shop.

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#104

Post by jljljl » Mon, Jan 25, 2016, 9:13 PM UTC

cturner wrote: post #97

jljljl wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if the response to difficulties in measurement is to build a system out of faith and assumptions. We can analyze different policy decisions, either by modeling human behavior (based on experiments which can be controlled and analyzed), or through natural experiments (e.g., What happens when a bunch of states and municipalities alter their minimum wage policies?)

> What happens when a bunch of states and > municipalities alter their minimum wage policies What kind of sizes to you need to be statistically significant? How can you be confident that there are not network effects in play that you don't know about. Immigration patterns, organised crime networks, political corruption, the subtleties of quality in supply chain companies, measurement variation, the culture of particu…

I disagree with this argument. You are posing two extremes: One where everything can be known with certainty, and one where everything is purely based on faith, and dismissing the potential of there being something in the middle.

You are right, economics can't model every potential variable that influences outcomes. Large scale studies of minimum wage admit that policy and economic differences between local municipalities can cause the effect of a minimum wage change to vary. But you can model for most major differences, such as "Did adjacent municipalities adjust their wages at the same time? Did this have an impact on employment".

Ultimately you can get much closer to an understanding of how minimum wage impacts an economy than you would from a purely faith based approach, and you can land at a recommendation like "In general small increases in the minimum wage do not raise prices or hurt employment, given the following conditions".

That's much more valuable than the Austrian position that purely bases itself on faith.

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#105

Post by crdoconnor » Mon, Jan 25, 2016, 10:22 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #102

crdoconnor wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, "efficient" factories that don't face competitive pressures (i.e. that don't drop their prices) will have a lower multiplier. Money spent on wages gets spent and circulated within the economy at a higher rate than money that is diverted towards profits (which tends to bid up the value of fixed assets in a demand constrained environment). >the inefficient one consumes money that could otherwise be invested i…

There's no particular reason to assume that a more productive business will be more profitable than a subsidised one. That's a completely separate question. If industry is more efficient, the Japanese people don't need to spend more. The same rate of spending will buy more goods and services, supporting more production by more businesses, generating more demand. You can't get away from the fact that the same amount o…

>There's no particular reason to assume that a more productive business will be more profitable than a subsidised one.

A business that fires half of its workers is likely be more profitable than one that doesn't, assuming it can get by without them.

>The same rate of spending will buy more goods and services

Wages will typically be spent on goods and services. Profits usually bid up the price of fixed assets (e.g. housing in San Francisco & New York, NASDAQ, bonds).

>You can't get away from the fact that the same amount of money spent on production by a more efficient company generates more demand for the things

Except that's not what happens.

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#106

Post by cturner » Tue, Jan 26, 2016, 11:14 AM UTC

jljljl wrote: post #104

cturner wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What happens when a bunch of states and > municipalities alter their minimum wage policies What kind of sizes to you need to be statistically significant? How can you be confident that there are not network effects in play that you don't know about. Immigration patterns, organised crime networks, political corruption, the subtleties of quality in supply chain companies, measurement variation, the culture of particu…

I disagree with this argument. You are posing two extremes: One where everything can be known with certainty, and one where everything is purely based on faith, and dismissing the potential of there being something in the middle. You are right, economics can't model every potential variable that influences outcomes. Large scale studies of minimum wage admit that policy and economic differences between local municipal…

"You are posing two extremes: One where everything can be known with certainty, and one where everything is purely based on faith, and dismissing the potential of there being something in the middle."

That's not what I'm posing. My claim is that both positions involve faith, but the Austrians are conservative in their assumptions and systematic in how they build from it. To me that is more trustworthy than non-systematic and statistically insignificant approaches.

Your minimum wage paragraph doesn't bring me closer. I think we've reached agree-to-disagree. Fortunately, this is only the internet. What we say doesn't matter, my opinions are of no consequence.

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#107

Post by lmm » Tue, Jan 26, 2016, 11:59 AM UTC

nandemo wrote: post #101

lmm wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tokyo might not have the SV's startup "scene" but apart from funding, it has pretty much all infrastructure a software startup needs, just like any large city in a developed country does: fast, reliable internet connection, a functioning legal system, and enough qualified labor. I was trying to pre-empt "San Francisco is just as expensive as Tokyo". Yes it is, but it has a lot of startup-specific infrastructure tha…

> If you just want the things you list, you can go somewhere much cheaper than Tokyo (e.g. central US, northern/western Europe - as you say, any large city in a developed country will do) Right, I'm not claiming Tokyo is the best place for startups. Just that there's an investment opportunity (I was going to say "arbitrage" but that's too strong as it implies risklessness).

True up to a point, but I'd expect Tokyo to be bottom of the list for an investor, after all of the cheaper large cities in developed countries.

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#108

Post by duncan_bayne » Tue, Jan 26, 2016, 10:13 PM UTC

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #95

klibertp wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Austrian instincts are partly about [...] Am I the only one who finds the word "instincts" used in this context deeply disturbing? We've got many well-intentioned people in history who acted according to their instincts and beliefs. Some of these invented and practiced eugenics, others tried to create an "agrarian communist society" while killing off some 2 million people in 4 years (I read about Khmer Rouge regime…

Modern economics isn't Austrian. The Austrian School are heterodox, and have largely only become popular among laypeople thanks to political lobbying by, for instance, the Koch Brothers.

Re. Koch lobbying for Austrian economics, even stopped clocks are right twice a day :)

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#109

Post by duncan_bayne » Tue, Jan 26, 2016, 10:14 PM UTC

notahacker wrote: post #84

klibertp wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Austrian instincts are partly about [...] Am I the only one who finds the word "instincts" used in this context deeply disturbing? We've got many well-intentioned people in history who acted according to their instincts and beliefs. Some of these invented and practiced eugenics, others tried to create an "agrarian communist society" while killing off some 2 million people in 4 years (I read about Khmer Rouge regime…

What makes you think that "modern economists" are more likely than the average person to (i) want to make us all into farmers and kill off intellectuals and (ii) have any chance of succeeding? All the available evidence would suggest that economists are disproportionately unlikely to favour agrarian dictatorship and no better placed than the average person to succeed. In fact "unlikely to favour large scale social en…

In fact "unlikely to favour large scale social engineering backed by force" is about the only thing Austrian economics has in common with mainstream modern economics...

That's flat out wrong, I'm afraid. Proponents of modern economics are very, very willing to perform social engineering backed by force.

Re: Japan Must Let Zombie Companies Die

#110

Post by notahacker » Wed, Jan 27, 2016, 9:38 AM UTC

duncan_bayne wrote: post #109

notahacker wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think that "modern economists" are more likely than the average person to (i) want to make us all into farmers and kill off intellectuals and (ii) have any chance of succeeding? All the available evidence would suggest that economists are disproportionately unlikely to favour agrarian dictatorship and no better placed than the average person to succeed. In fact "unlikely to favour large scale social en…

In fact "unlikely to favour large scale social engineering backed by force" is about the only thing Austrian economics has in common with mainstream modern economics... That's flat out wrong, I'm afraid. Proponents of modern economics are very, very willing to perform social engineering backed by force.

Depends on what you consider "social engineering" really. Even Hayek didn't think that a developed market economy providing a social safety net (and levying taxes to pay for it) counted.

Khmer-Rouge style social engineering involved concluding the problem with modern economies is that people are choosing to work in industries not in the national interest, and a practical solution is to abolish all markets and use the military to relocate people and assign them new roles. Name one modern economist who has reached remotely similar conclusions.